High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 16)

December 18, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 16 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities," for Week 16 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're in the fantasy football playoffs, hoping we survive through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value opportunities. 

Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Chase Brown had four of his 25 rushing attempts inside the 10, including his one rushing touchdown. That puts Brown at 21 rush attempts inside the 10 in 2024, with 12 coming in Weeks 10-15, the third most among all rushers.

Besides Brown, the quarterbacks dominated the show in Week 15, including Jalen Hurts with seven and Josh Allen having four carries inside the 10. Hurts scored on one of them, including a one-yard goal-line attempt. He leads all rushers in carries within the 1-yard line at 15, scoring 11 times. The only other rusher with 10 or more carries within the 1-yard line would be Chuba Hubbard (10), scoring on four of those attempts.

The visual below shows the rushing leaders inside the 10-yard line in Week 15.

Meanwhile, Allen scored two rushing touchdowns on his four attempts in Week 15. That marked his third game with two passing and two rushing scores in 2024, with two coming over the past two games. Like Hurts, Allen remains one of the only quarterbacks among the leaders in rushers within the 1-yard line, tying him for third with seven attempts and five touchdowns.

The visual below shows the rushing leaders within the 1-yard line in Weeks 1-15.

We highlighted the WR/CB matchup for the Commanders and Saints game, with the caveat that the Saints run defense allows the fifth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt. That should've led to Brian Robinson Jr. smashing against the Saints, but he was inefficient with 65 rushing yards on a heavy workload (21 carries).

Heading into Week 15, Robinson ranked 15th in rushing expected fantasy points per game, with the second-lowest receiving expected points (2.5) ahead of Derrick Henry's 1.7 receiving EP/G. Without Austin Ekeler healthy over the past two games (Weeks 13 and 15) with a bye in between, Robinson ranks 17th in expected fantasy points per game, with 80 percent of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line (No. 13).

Robinson ranks 10th in carries inside the 10 on the season, with James Cook at 12th and James Conner at 16th, all within 1-2 attempts. In Week 16, Robinson will struggle against the Eagles but should have a favorable matchup against the Cowboys in Week 17, as they allow the fourth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt.

The visual below shows the rushing leaders inside the 10-yard line in Weeks 1-15.

Thankfully, Cook has been efficient since he shares the backfield with Allen, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson. That's evident in Cook's 41.2 percent rush share compared to Allen's 32.4 percent, Davis at 20.6 percent, and Johnson's 5.9 percent in Week 15. Cook has been garnering a healthy volume of carries inside the 10, but shares the team carries inside the five, with Cook at 39.1 percent (No. 44) and Allen at 41.7 percent (No. 41).

Unlike Cook, Conner doesn't have a quarterback or another running back stealing tons of work near the goal line. Conner ranks seventh with an 80 percent team rush share inside the 5-yard line, showing he garners the raw volume and most of the team touches in these situations.

Keep valuing Conner as a high-end RB2, ranking 15th in expected fantasy points per game with a balanced rushing and receiving profile. He might be one of the veteran running backs bringing home championships with a few slowing down lately.

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

We had five notable receivers with two targets inside the 10 in Week 15. That list includes Davante Adams, Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Collins scored touchdowns on both targets inside the 10, with Thomas scoring one. However, Nabers and St. Brown scored zero touchdowns on their targets inside the 10.

Thankfully, St. Brown had a massive day with the Lions offense trailing, leading to him tying a season-high in targets (18) while setting a season-best in receptions (14) and receiving yards (193). St. Brown gave us a week-winning type performance in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.

Though Nabers didn't explode like St. Brown, he soaked up 14 targets, leading to his third game with 10 or more receptions, plus a garbage-time 23-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

Adams caught both of his targets inside the 10 in Week 15, scoring on one of them. He had one of his prime Adams-type performances in Week 15 against the Jaguars, with nine receptions, 198 receiving yards, and two scores on 12 targets (40 percent target share). Adams is one of four pass-catchers with 10 or more targets inside the 10, ranking tied with second (11), with teammate Garrett Wilson close behind at nine (No. 5).

The Jets receivers have the third-best schedule for the rest of the fantasy playoffs, making them reliable options when it matters. They have been garnering WR1-type usage, evidenced by Wilson's third-highest expected fantasy points per game (18.4) compared to Adams ranking eighth (17.1). Adams has matched his PPR/G (17.4) while Wilson should see positive regression, with 15.3 PPR/G.

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

George Kittle and Jauan Jennings had three targets on third and fourth downs in Week 15. Kittle and Jennings each converted one of their three third- and fourth-down targets into first downs. It was one of Brock Purdy's worst performances, aligning with the 49ers offense totaling under 200 yards for the first time this season.

The visual below shows the receiving target leaders on third and fourth downs in Week 15.

Heading into Week 15, Jennings ranked 13th in expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 10-14. Maybe it was the weather or the 49ers offense struggling, but the usage for Jennings has been like a high-end WR2, meaning he's a must-start player based on volume. The 49ers face the Dolphins, Lions, and Cardinals over the next three games, making it a below-average schedule for the rest of the fantasy playoffs, though it's hard to fade Jennings' usage.

Sometimes the target leaders on third and fourth downs can uncover some fun names and sleepers. Besides St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Thomas, Courtland Sutton, and several other high-end receivers, Wan'Dale Robinson and Christian Watson were notable. Most top target-earners on third and fourth downs tend to be valued as a WR1 or WR2.

However, Watson having five of his six targets on third and fourth downs in Week 15 indicates Jordan Love looked his way often in crucial situations. The issue for the Packers pass-catchers involves their run-heavy approach, as evidenced by their running the ball at the highest rate (55 percent) in neutral game scripts, tied with the Eagles in Weeks 8-14.

The visual below shows the Packers pass-catchers in Weeks 10-15.

With the Packers using a run-heavy game script, they distribute the targets between five different pass-catchers, averaging 3-4 targets per game in Weeks 10-14. That's evident in Watson averaging a 21 percent target share, with Romeo Doubs at 20 percent, Tucker Kraft at 16 percent, Dontayvion Wicks at 13 percent, and Jayden Reed at 15 percent in Weeks 10-14.

Though Watson has been one of the more efficient receivers, ranking 16th in receiving yards per team pass attempt over expected (2.7), the volume isn't reliable. Watson ranks third on the Packers in YPTOE behind Kraft (4.1) and Reed (3.9) among WR/TE with 50 routes run.

The visual below shows the receiving target leaders on third and fourth downs sorted by targets per route rate.

Robinson ranks first in targets on third and fourth downs while ranking 17th in targets per route run. In 2024, Robinson ranks 37th in expected fantasy points per game and 43rd in first-read target share. Since Nabers ranks first in first-read target share and first in expected fantasy points per game, it suggests Robinson might be more of a checkdown option on third and fourth downs.

If pass-catchers have a high target rate on third and fourth downs and a high first-read target share, they're typically a priority offensive player in their respective offenses. We'll notice some receivers with high target rates on third and fourth downs but lower first-read shares, making them unreliable options, including Marvin Mims Jr., Adonai Mitchell, and KaVontae Turpin who would be more noisy than notable.

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