Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 5: Deebo Samuel Sr., DK Metcalf, Brian Thomas Jr., Dontayvion Wicks

October 6, 2024

Dan's favorite WR vs. CB matchups to exploit for Week 5 of 2024 - DFS wide receivers to target on DraftKings & FanDuel. These WR/CB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

Week 5 WR Matchups to Target is here. We caught fire last week, cashing on three home-run picks (3x multiplier on DraftKings salary) in Jayden Reed, Diontae Johnson, and Terry McLaurin. We’ll look to stay hot as we turn the calendar to October.

Each week we will use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. These are players more likely to return a 3x multiplier on their DraftKings salary, a benchmark for consistently winning DFS cash games. 

Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

$7,000 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel; vs. Deonte Banks

Metcalf has been excellent the last three weeks, catching two touchdowns while averaging seven receptions and 112.3 yards. He has garnered a 24.8% target share and 44.1% air yard share over that span. 

Seattle has a matchup with the Giants this week, PFF’s 13th-easiest matchup for receivers, which should allow Metcalf to continue his recent tear. 

Metcalf lines up mainly on the outside in the X-position, where he will match up primarily opposite CB Deonte Banks in man coverage (New York deploys the 11th-most man coverage). Banks has PFF's fifth-lowest coverage grade among qualified corners, allowing the fourth-highest passer rating when targeted (134.5).

Opposing QBs have taken advantage of this so far, with Banks being targeted once every 5.3 coverage snaps, a bottom-15 mark among defensive backs. Metcalf is priced as the eighth-most expensive receiver on the DraftKings slate despite top-three upside this week. He is a great bet to go over his 67.5-yard receiving prop as well.

Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers

$6,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel; vs. Sean Murphy-Bunting

Samuel is quietly the WR16 this season despite already missing a game due to injury and facing a difficult string of secondaries to open 2024. In games against the Jets, Vikings, and Patriots, the 28-year-old has collected 16 catches for 222 receiving yards and one rushing touchdown.

Samuel has his best chance for a WR1 week on Sunday against the Cardinals and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting in PFF’s highest matchup advantage for a receiver among any individual WR/CB matchup this week. Murphy-Bunting gave up six catches and 85 yards to backup WR Olamide Zaccheaus last week. 

The Cardinals have played zone coverage 71.8% of the time. Samuel has been most effective against zone this season, ranking among the top 10 wide receivers (minimum of 35 routes) in fantasy points per route run. He also leads all wide receivers in PFF receiving grade (90.8) and ranks second in yards per route run (3.63) versus zone.

Deebo is in as much of a buy-low spot as he may be all season. He's a great pick to fit into lineups this week at $6,800 on DraftKings. 

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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

$5,900 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel; vs. Samuel Womack

Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. has been the most promising part of a meek Jaguars offense through four weeks. Thomas Jr. enters Week 5 as the WR19 coming off the best game of his young career, catching six passes for 86 yards and a touchdown against the Texans.

The Jags have a juicy matchup against Indianapolis on Sunday. The Colts' defense is PFF’s fifth-best matchup for receivers this week. Indianapolis’ defense leads the NFL in zone defense snaps (247) but ranks in the bottom-third of the league in catch rate allowed (73.0%), yards allowed per snap (9.48), and explosive pass plays allowed (12) to opposing receivers per PFF.

Thomas Jr. leads all Jacksonville receivers in every major receiving category against zone coverage, including targets, receptions, and target rate. He will find himself lined up mainly on the outside again opposite the Colts’ depleted secondary. Thomas Jr. is an excellent bet to return value this week.

Perimeter WRs have CRUSHED the Colts:

• George Pickens: 7/113/0
• Rome Odunze: 6/112/1
• Nico Collins: 6/117/0

Welcome to Brian Thomas Jr. week 🚀 pic.twitter.com/6t13sEYxjI

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) October 3, 2024

 

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

$5,100 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel; vs. Jarrian Jones

Downs has come on strong over the last two weeks - he leads the Colts in receptions and is tied for the team lead in target share (30.4%) over that span. He showed particular proficiency in the slot with Joe Flacco under center last week after QB Anthony Richardson went down with an oblique injury.

With RB Jonathan Taylor ruled out already, the Colts will have to lean heavier on the pass on Sunday. The Colts travel to Jacksonville, the worst defense against opposing fantasy receivers this year.

Downs lines up almost exclusively in the slot, where he will match up with Jaguars nickel CB Jarrian Jones. Jones has a measly 54.2 coverage grade, with PFF giving Downs a 95.1 matchup advantage grade in this duel.

Anthony Richardson is questionable to start this week. Downs is a great bet against Jacksonville's vulnerable defense regardless of who starts at quarterback, but he is a home-run pick if Flacco plays.

Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers

$5,000 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel; vs. Cobie Durant

Wicks came alive in Week 4 after an injury to starter Christian Watson, finishing with five catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns. The second-year receiver led the Packers in total targets (13) and red zone targets (7).

Wicks and the Packers have a matchup with the Rams next. Wicks will line up on the perimeter opposite CB Cobie Durant most often. Durant’s 53.2 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 59th out of 65 defensive backs (minimum 55 perimeter coverage snaps). Wicks has a clear path to targets as well with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs doubtful to play on Sunday.

The Rams deploy zone coverage at a top-eight rate. Wicks has been a top-25 receiver in fantasy points per route run versus zone per PFF, with a 26.2% target rate to boot.

While Jayden Reed’s high floor may be the better bet for cash games, Wicks and his moon-high ceiling come at a significant discount (39th receiver by DraftKings salary), making him a smash pick for tournaments.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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