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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 4 of the 2024 season? Andrew's potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid for Week 4 lineups.
The list of potential busts has shrunk in Week 4.
Michael Pittman Jr., D'Andre Swift, Zamir White, and Mark Andrews are some players now considered season-long bust candidates. Instead of making the easy call and listing them every week, they are removed from this article until proven otherwise.
With that being said, below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players that may disappoint, for Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ) vs. Denver
Don't fix what isn't broken. DK Metcalf, George Pickens, and Mike Evans have failed against Pat Surtain II. He does not let opposing wide receivers separate. Let's run it back with Garrett Wilson.
How good is Patrick Surtain?
He ranks bottom-10 of 97 qualifying CBs by PFF grade. Butt @FantasyPtsData's ASS tells an entirely different story.
Patrick Surtain has shadowed D.K. Metcalf, George Pickens, and Mike Evans, who collectively averaged a 0.091 ASS against Denver.…
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 24, 2024
Wilson does venture into the slot more often than the trio Surtain has faced this season. While Surtain likely won't follow him there, the Broncos are still very good against slot wide receivers.
Wilson's 1.38 average target separation (ranked 61st among wide receivers) isn't good. That may have to do with Wilson's brutal schedule. He's dealt with San Francisco, Tennessee's L'Jarius Sneed, and New England's Christian Gonzalez so far.
Aaron Rodgers admitted that he and Wilson aren't quite on the same page yet. The duo was slightly off on a couple of back-shoulder throws against New England. They'll need to connect on those types of passes for Wilson to see success against Surtain.
Wilson hasn't been a top-25 wide receiver yet this season. Brighter days are ahead as the matchups ease and the chemistry with Rodgers improves.
Tyreek Hill / Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA) vs. Tennessee
When Tyler Huntley is the preferred option of Dolphins fans, the season has gone wrong (despite a Pro Bowl appearance to his name). The former Raven has an 8:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and under 200 yards passing in seven of his nine starts. And he still offers more potential than the now-injured Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle.
The collective view in our Dolphins media room here in Miami Gardens is that Tyler Huntley is the favorite to start Monday, unless the coaches don't like what they see in terms of grasp of offense, etc., over next three days.
— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) September 26, 2024
The quarterback issue was on display against Seattle in Week 3. Tyreek Hill caught three of five targets for 40 yards. Jaylen Waddle also saw five targets. He secured four for 26 yards. Thompson and Boyle combined for 186 passing yards. Hill and Waddle can break one at any time, but the lower volume decreases the odds.
The Tennessee Titans are one of three defenses yet to allow a wide receiver to score a touchdown. Their secondary is the strong part of their defense, while they're below average against the run. With a new quarterback under center and Raheem Mostert possibly returning to the lineup, Mike McDaniel could try and keep the ball grounded.
The Titans will deploy a similar strategy. Will Levis has thrown at least one interception in all three games. Miami is beatable on the ground. Sportsbooks predict the matchup to be the lowest-scoring affair of the weekend with the clock continually ticking.
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN) at New York Jets
Is Bo Nix figuring out the NFL game? If so, it will prop up Courtland Sutton, who we've seen be a reliable fantasy football asset on more than one occasion.
Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams have been atop this week's show sheet
but Bo Nix easily produced his best NFL game last weekend
first throw, perfect back shoulder timing with Courtland Sutton pic.twitter.com/Q6EJ7Kxi5P
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) September 25, 2024
Sutton has double-digit targets in two of the first three games and caught seven of 11 last week for 68 yards. That volume makes him worthy of weekly flex consideration.
In Sean Payton's offense, Sutton plays 83% of his snaps out wide. He also tends to favor the left side of the field. That's where Sauce Gardner roams. Picking apart the Tampa Bay secondary is one thing. Doing it against the Jets will be a huge test for Nix. It's safer to avoid all Broncos this week.
Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC) vs. Kansas City
Let's try this one again.
Quentin Johnston scored a touchdown against Pittsburgh on a busted coverage, which makes me look foolish for listing the second-year receiver in this column.
Quentin Johnston is back in the end zone!
📺: #LACvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/HJ4Cr6Hygj— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
Johnston had one other catch for 17 yards in the game. As predicted, both teams relied on their running games to try and win.
With a 21% target share, Johnston is the top wide receiver for the Chargers. But 21% of Justin Herbert's 21 pass attempts per game average isn't a big number. Johnston is winning on touchdowns alone.
This week, Johnston faces a rigid Kansas City defense, which has successfully prevented Ja'Marr Chase and Zay Flowers (to a lesser extent) from racking up yardage. And he could be doing it without Herbert under center. The Chargers franchise quarterback reaggravated an ankle sprain against Pittsburgh. Taylor Heinicke would be in line to start if Herbert can't go.
Kenneth Walker III / Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA) at Detroit
There are two matchups to avoid at all costs so far this season: The top wide receiver against the Denver Broncos and running backs against the Detroit Lions.
2023's top defense against running backs, the Lions opened the season by limiting Kyren Williams to 2.78 yards per carry (although he did get a short touchdown). Containing Rachaad White wasn't a challenge in Week 2. Their performance in Week 3 re-established their status as a top rush defense again in 2024.
James Conner entered Week 3 averaging 4.64 yards per carry and scored a touchdown on the ground in Weeks 1 and 2. Detroit gave him zero running room. Conner finished the game with nine carries for 17 yards.
The Lions have the best run defense in the NFL and have for the last year. The Lions haven’t allowed an RB to rush for 70+ yards in the regular season since Week 16 of the 2022 season against the Panthers.
— Honolulu Blues (@HonoluluBlues_) September 24, 2024
When other defenses restrict the ground game for running backs, some can make up for it via a series of dump-offs and screen passes. That's not the case for the Lions. They've allowed just five catches for 17 yards through three games.
Walker is working his way back from an oblique injury. He'll likely be questionable heading into Monday night. Whichever running back gets the start for Seattle will be on bust alert.
J.K. Dobbins (RB, LAC) vs. Kansas City
J.K. Dobbins will get plenty of opportunities in Week 4. It might not matter.
Now entrenched as the backfield leader, Dobbins is averaging 14 carries per game. The running lanes were wide open against softer defenses like Las Vegas and Carolina. Those lanes weren't open against Pittsburgh, which has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to running backs. One spot above Pittsburgh is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The supporting cast around Dobbins is spending a lot of time in the training room this week. Justin Herbert reaggravated his ankle sprain, which will be a question mark this weekend. Both offensive tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, are unlikely to play.
Possibly a backup quarterback, a dismantled offensive line, and Patrick Mahomes picking apart the defense typically equals a down game for a running back.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Here's another risky one for your Sunday decisions. Cole Kmet plays against the Rams, a defensive unit ranked in the top five for most fantasy points allowed to tight ends. It's not just a tight-end problem for Los Angeles. The Rams are surrendering the most yards per game in the NFL. Scoring shouldn't be too much of an issue, even for a struggling Chicago offense.
Kmet scored one of Chicago's two touchdowns against the Colts in Week 3, catching 10 passes for 97 yards. The fifth-year pro had five catches for 31 yards in the two prior games. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's infatuation with Gerald Everett prevented Kmet from being fantasy-relevant. The two essentially split snaps in Week 1. Everett has held firm with about 30 snaps per game.
The absence of Keenan Allen was the difference for Kmet in Weeks 2 and 3. His snaps in the slot increased from four in Week 1, to 17 in Week 2, to 28 in Week 3. Eight of his 11 targets came when he was lined up in the slot.
3rd and 8 check vs cover 1 man
Cole Kmet screen with Carter blocking 🤦♂️ pic.twitter.com/UVTaavYQTm
— Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) September 25, 2024
Allen returned to practice in a limited fashion this week, opening the door for him to return to the Chicago lineup. He'll occupy the slot more than Kmet if that's the case. Kmet can still be plugged into lineups (let's be honest, he has just as good of a chance of doing well as any other tight end this year), but there is a situation where he's phased out of the offense again.
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) at Tampa Bay
It was no A.J. Brown, no problem for Hurts in Week 2. Despite only throwing for 181 yards, Hurts found DeVonta Smith in the end zone and rushed for another score.
That wasn't the case in Week 3. Hurts threw for 311 yards, but tossed his fourth interception of the season and failed to score. Smith departed the game in the second half with a concussion and seems unlikely to play on Sunday.
Jalen Hurts has the MOST turnovers since the start of last season (26) 😳
(h/t: @jclarkNBCS) pic.twitter.com/90KdgCU8zl
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 22, 2024
So, Hurts may be without his top two receivers. In Week 3, he relied on tight end Dallas Goedert to move the ball through the air. Tampa Bay is one of the best defenses against the position (seven catches for 60 yards and no touchdowns). It has matched up against Zach Ertz, Sam LaPorta, and Greg Dulcich. Plus, the unit gets the week to prepare for Goedert being the focal point of the aerial attack.
Hurts isn't a full sit. With a reliance on the running game, he may attempt more rushes than usual off read options. And we know if they get to the 1-yard line, he's plunging in for an easy six fantasy points. But he could bust if the Buccaneers defense stacks the box and lets their corners handle the likes of Jahan Dotson and Johnny Wilson on their own.
Jordan Love (QB, GB) vs. Minnesota*
"Your scheme man, it's crazy."
That's what Brock Purdy told Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores after getting sacked six times, throwing an interception, losing a fumble, and leading the 49ers to 17 points. The following week, C.J. Stroud took four sacks of his own, tossed two interceptions, and the Texans mustered just seven points.
It's fair to say that a healthy Jordan Love is a similar caliber player (fantasy-wise at least) to Stroud and Purdy. Love isn't healthy, however. He could be back in the lineup this week ahead of an important divisional matchup, despite the initial recovery timeline being three to six weeks.
A less than 100% quarterback against a defense that allows the seventh-fewest quarterback fantasy points per game is a sit. Geno Smith and Caleb Williams are cheap options against subpar defenses that could be used instead.
*The Green Bay coaches are playing coy about Love's availability, continuing to call him limited and they'll give Love "up to game time."
Anthony Richardson (QB, IND) vs. Pittsburgh
Celebrations after Week 1 may have been premature. Fantasy football frustration over Anthony Richardson is about to boil over.
Since his 27-point, QB4 finish in Week 1, Richardson landed as the QB21 and QB31 in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively. He can't blame the supporting cast, either. Outside of Josh Downs (who wasn't available in Week 1 anyway), the skill-position players have been healthy. Rather, it's been a series of unfortunate turnovers and inaccurate passes.
The Anthony Richardson experience is either the best throw you’ve ever seen or the worst
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 22, 2024
Richardson draws his toughest matchup in his young career, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers haven't played the who's who of star quarterbacks yet (Kirk Cousins, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert), but allowed only two passing touchdowns to four interceptions.
Opposing defenses aren't blitzing Richardson. The second-year quarterback has been blitzed nine times through three games. Instead, he's given plenty of time in the pocket (2.5 seconds average snap to throw) as defenses spy to reduce his rushing opportunities. T.J. Watt will bait him into bad throws when he reduces Richardson's time in the pocket.
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