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Fantasy football running back committees to chase for 2024 drafts. Kyle analyzes crowded backfields that are favorable, as potential fantasy football RB values.
In the fantasy football market, uncertainty creates opportunity, especially when it comes to running backs. If you're avoiding certain team's backfields because you're worried about who the starter will be, just remember that it's already likely baked into the ADP of those running backs. Oftentimes, we can get a very good price on a running back who ends up as a league-winner while everyone else didn't bother drafting them due to the uncertainty in playing time. One bad habit that we tend to get into at this point of the offseason is double-counting. Fantasy football ADP markets have become more efficient in recent years, so my point is not to count something that the markets are already accounting for. Make sense?
One of the many positive things about rankings and projections is that some of the best minds in the football space have created a bird's-eye view of the upcoming season for us. However, one of the flaws in rankings and projections is that they don't usually factor in contingent-based upside and leave several running backs out there to be drafted at their very floor, which in turn is good for us! While we aren't rooting for injuries in fantasy football, they are a part of the game. When injuries or depth charts happen to break in our favor, they can often change the entire course of a season, but we'll get into this concept of contingent-based upside for running backs a little later.
Despite a handful of NFL backfields looking muddy and crowded at this point in July, we can do our best to sift through those muddied waters to target backfields where there is still plenty of value to be found. So, which backfields should we be focusing on in 2024? Let's take a look and find you those potential league-winners now, shall we?
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Miami Dolphins
A current synopsis of the Miami running back ADPs, courtesy of FantasyData:
De'Von Achane: RB8 - 20.0 ADP
Raheem Mostert: RB29 - 92.0 ADP
Jaylen Wright: RB48 - 144.0 ADP
Head coach Mike McDaniel has been an absolute godsend for fantasy football the last two years, rescuing QB Tua Tagovailoa from pending obscurity while making superstar WR Tyreek Hill not even miss a beat since coming over from Kansas City. WR Jaylen Waddle has been adequate for fantasy purposes despite being banged up, but McDaniel's offensive wizardry has shown to be even better for the Dolphins running backs.
Raheem Mostert has enjoyed a late-career resurgence the last two seasons and finished 2023 with 21 total touchdowns while De'Von Achane was incredibly effective as a rookie, averaging 1.36 fantasy points scored per touch in half PPR formats despite having some of his inaugural campaign cut short from injury.
Mostert finished the 2023 season as the overall RB2 in points per game. Despite his age at 32, there are 20 active running backs in the NFL who have more career touches than Mostert despite being younger. While he might be 32, Mostert doesn't have the same career arc as a typical 32-year-old running back. In fact, Mostert reached 21.62 mph last season, which was the 10th fastest among all ball-carriers, per ESPN Next Gen Stats.
The Dolphins drafted Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft (No. 120 overall) and their backfield has a potentially crowded look for fantasy purposes at the moment. However, we shouldn't let that deter us, and here's why.
The NFL had just two running backs go over an 80 percent snap share in 2023, along with just one in 2022 and 2021. In perspective, five backs went over an 80% share in 2019. As the bell-cow usage of RBs has declined in recent years with more teams taking a committee-based approach, what we want to do for fantasy is target running backs in good offenses who can be efficient with limited touches. These are typically explosive backs with the ability to break off long runs, have pass-catching upside, and can still get goal-line touches. There is a very realistic scenario where multiple Dolphins can still be fantasy-relevant in 2024.
#GoFins RB De’Von Achane among RBs in 2023 (min 100 carries) 🏈🥵
Yards After Contact: 4.94 (1st)
Breakaway Run Rate: 53.4% (1st)
Fantasy Points per Touch: 1.36 (1st)
Yards per Carry: 7.8 (1st) pic.twitter.com/hRz7PljslB— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) June 24, 2024
While there is some hesitation about Achane's current ADP as the RB8, the problem with completely fading him in 2024 is that he has the potential to put up a monster season and drew some rookie comparisons to a young Chris Johnson, aka CJ2K, when he was on the Titans in the late 2000s.
Mostert's age at 32 is a concern, but his career arc hasn't been the same as many other backs at age 32 given the fact he doesn't have the same kind of wear-and-tear on his body. We simply don't know enough about Wright at this point, but betting on any of the Dolphins backs in fantasy is one I'll still be making for 2024.
Cincinnati Bengals
Here is how the Bengals backfield looks based on ADP from FantasyData:
Zack Moss: RB26 - 86.0 ADP
Chase Brown: RB41: 118.0 ADP
The Bengals front office traded away RB Joe Mixon to the Texans this offseason and decided to save money at the position. Mixon had a relatively safe share of their backfield the last few seasons and was a solid bet for fantasy. We know this offense should be dynamic with a healthy Joe Burrow under center paired alongside WR Ja'Marr Chase and WR Tee Higgins. The Bengals also made some significant upgrades along their offensive line, bringing in tackle Trent Brown and spending a first-round pick on tackle/guard Amarius Mims from Georgia.
Moss is somewhat of an enigma. After failing to do much in Buffalo, he emerged in Indianapolis last season, shining in the absence of Jonathan Taylor and starting eight games. Moss had 183 rush attempts for 795 yards (4.3 avg) and five TDs. He also caught 27 passes for 192 yards and two TDs. After former Bills RB Devin Singletary showed flashes in Houston last season and secured a new contract from the New York Giants, one can't help but wonder how the Bills offense wasn't able to maximize either of those backs alongside QB Josh Allen.
Second-year RB Chase Brown didn't have a lot of playing time in 2023, but shined when he did. Brown carried the ball 44 times for 179 yards and added 14 receptions for 156 yards and one TD. While many project that the starting job will go to Moss, Brown is the more explosive of the two backs and should be more of a factor in the passing game.
When QB Joe Burrow is healthy, the Bengals have been one of the more dynamic offensive units in the league and we should want to try and get as many pieces of this offense as we can. Behind Moss and Brown, there isn't much depth in the Bengals running back room, which means either or both of them could be solid bets for fantasy.
The Bengals need to get RB Chase Brown more involved in the passing game.
In a small sample size last season - Brown put up:
🟠 14 Receptions
🟠 156 Receiving Yards
🟠 11.1 YPR
pic.twitter.com/TQXXXaSOfb— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) July 8, 2024
Seattle Seahawks
Here is the Seahawks backfield based on the current ADP from FantasyData:
Kenneth Walker III: RB16 - 53.0 ADP
Zach Charbonnet: RB42 - 126.0
What if I told you that Charbonnet has nearly identical draft capital to Walker, played 48% of the offensive snaps as a rookie, and had a better success rate as a runner and receiver? Seattle has a new head coach in Mike Macdonald and a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. The plan is for the Seahawks offense to be more up-tempo this season and pass more, which could lead to a more favorable situation for Charbonnet in fantasy. At this point, Charbonnet seems like the better value given that he is going a full six-plus rounds later in fantasy drafts than Walker.
Based on the film, it's pretty clear KWIII is the more explosive of the two backs, but he tends to go for the big runs and can often get gobbled up at the line of scrimmage for no gain. Charbonnet is more of a north-south runner who is decisive and gets upfield quicker, which leads to a higher success rate.
Which back the new Seattle coaching staff will prefer is another question. The Seahawks offense has plenty of talent with QB Geno Smith and a trio of WRs in DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett. They also traded for QB Sam Howell to be the backup to ensure the bottom won't fall out on this offense in 2024 should anything happen to Smith.
It's a bummer Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have to share a backfield. Both would shine if they were completely featured. Charbs vision and athleticism for a big back stood out to me whenever the Seahawks weren't missing blocks. pic.twitter.com/CzRuRuaWHx
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 17, 2024
One thing that continually plagued the Seahawks offense for fantasy over the last several years was former head coach Pete Carroll's slow pace of play. Last season, the Seahawks ranked 32nd in the NFL in plays ran per game at 58.5 and were 16th, 32nd, and 23rd from 2020-2022 in plays per game. While Carroll was a very good coach in his own right, his retirement plus the bringing in of a new coaching staff ought to spice things up for this team in 2024.
Once we know more about this team's backfield and have a better idea of how it plans to deploy its running backs, maybe drafting Walker will be a safer pick. As of right now, Charbonnet feels like the better value given the fact that they are both very capable running backs with a large discrepancy in their ADPs.
Tennessee Titans
Here is how the Titans backfield looks based on the current FantasyData ADP:
Tony Pollard: RB27 - 88.0 ADP
Tyjae Spears: RB35 - 105.0 ADP
As mentioned with Seattle, Tennessee was 31st in pace of play in 2023, running just 58.9 plays per game. Former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan was brought in to be the Titans' new head coach to help mentor QB Will Levis and attempt to get their offense out of the stone age.
RB Tony Pollard was signed to a three-year, $21.75 million contract and WR Calvin Ridley was also brought in after signing a monster four-year deal for $92 million. While it's fair to question the market value of these deals, it signifies just how badly Tennessee wants to be a modern NFL offense after lagging for what seems like the last decade.
Second-year RB Tyjae Spears played well in a limited role last season behind RB Derrick Henry. Spears had 100 rushes for 453 yards and two TDs while adding 52 receptions for 385 yards and another score. Where Spears thrives is as a receiver where he showcases his natural ability to get in and out of his breaks while displaying soft hands and the ability to create in space. While the Titans have come out and said they view these running backs as interchangeable, Tennessee's offense could take a big step up this season.
Pollard disappointed in a full-time role with the Cowboys in 2023, but he still had over 1,300 total yards with 52 receptions and six TDs. He has shown the ability to be efficient with limited touches and it's worth noting how much the Titans improved their offensive line this offseason. Center Lloyd Cushenberry III was brought in from Denver and the Titans spent the No. 7 overall pick in the draft on tackle JC Latham, who should settle in on the left side.
While there is still some risk if Levis does not develop under center, veteran Mason Rudolph was brought in this offseason to be the team's backup. While Rudolph has struggled with consistency at times, he has shown to be a capable backup and still gives this offense somewhat of a floor should Levis struggle.
Wrote about Tyjae Spears as one of my priority young buys for the website today.
Doesn't hurt that he destroyed Pollard in every important efficiency metric.
He earned a 53% snap share with Derrick Henry in town. He's going to dominate the touches in 2024. https://t.co/fqAnMS3BcP pic.twitter.com/rQzodFJPPO
— Dynasty Zoltan (Mike Garai) (@DynastyZoltanFF) July 9, 2024
Honorable Mention/Conclusion
This one was too obvious to list, but it's the Detroit Lions with RB Jahmyr Gibbs and RB David Montgomery. With offensive coordinator Ben Johnson returning to Detroit for another year, its offense should still be one of the top units in the league with Gibbs and Monty both scoring plenty of fantasy points.
As mentioned above, one of the things that isn't always factored into rankings and player projections is contingent-based upside. When one running back performs much better than the other, there is always a chance that one player will take over as the starter and see a larger share of the carries, something that projections can't always account for.
In the same breath, we know how violent and brutal the running back position can be. It's not always a guarantee that most running backs will be able to stay healthy for a full season, which in turn adds additional value for the survivors.
I hope you enjoyed this article. Don't forget to follow me on X and be sure to hit me with any fantasy related questions you have as we get closer to the season.
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