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Mike Barner looks at four fantasy baseball players who have been surprising early- season MVPs and discusses their outlook for the remainder of the year.
We are more than a quarter of the way through the MLB regular season. There is still plenty of time to make up ground, but standings are starting to round into form in fantasy leagues.
Yahoo has an interesting feature that tracks players who appear the most often on teams ranked into the top 500 in public leagues.
Let’s take a look at some of the unexpected early-season fantasy baseball MVPs and discuss if they can remain productive as the season moves along.
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Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies (25.0% of teams)
Suarez took a step backward last season with a 4.18 ERA. His 3.90 FIP was nearly identical to his mark in 2022, though, when he finished with a 3.65 ERA over 29 starts. However, he has never been much of a fantasy option, given his career 21.8 percent strikeout rate. Also, he finished with a WHIP of at least 1.33 in both of the last two seasons.
Suarez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 1.37 ERA. While his FIP is higher, it’s still excellent at 2.73. The biggest reason for his improvement could be a 4.6 percent walk rate that has helped him generate a 0.76 WHIP. His strikeout rate is also significantly higher at 26.5 percent.
It’s highly unlikely that Suarez will finish the season with an ERA below 2.00. However, his 4.7 percent barrel rate and 28.4 percent hard-hit rate allowed are both encouraging. With a Baseball Savant page that has more red on it than a stop sign, Suarez has the potential to remain a very valuable fantasy option.
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (17.2% of teams)
Ozuna put up great numbers last season, finishing with 40 home runs and 100 RBI in a loaded Braves lineup. For a player with his type of power, his career 21.7 percent strikeout rate is noteworthy. While he was expected to remain a valuable fantasy option this season, no one could have predicted that he would get off to this kind of a start.
Through 44 games entering Tuesday, Ozuna has 14 home runs and a whopping 43 RBI. Not only that, but he is batting .327 with a .446 wOBA. For his career, he has a .271 batting average and a .344 wOBA, so he is vastly outperforming his usual numbers.
Ozuna should continue to have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. He should blow past 100 RBI and he could even surpass his previous career high of 124 RBI, which he had for the Marlins in 2017. However, he has been a bit lucky when it comes to his batting average, given his .364 BABIP. His batting average will likely end up under .300 by the conclusion of the season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t remain a fantasy MVP.
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals (16.4% of teams)
The Royals didn’t make any flashy moves during the offseason, but they brought in some veterans to help improve their chances of winning. Two veterans that they added to bolster their rotation were Lugo and Michael Wacha. Wacha has provided valuable innings, but his production hasn’t been anywhere near the level of what Lugo has given fantasy managers.
Seth Lugo's 6th, 7th and 8th Ks. pic.twitter.com/UPxmAqjhEh
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 19, 2024
Through 10 starts, Lugo has a sparkling 1.79 ERA. His WHIP checks in at 0.98, thanks in large part to his 5.1 percent walk rate allowed. Like Suarez, Lugo likely won’t finish with a sub-2.00 ERA. However, he has a good FIP at 3.21 and he has finished with an ERA of 3.60 or lower in each of the last three seasons. Don’t rush to offer him up in trades just yet.
Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals (16.0% of teams)
Finnegan recorded 28 saves for the Nationals last year, but many of his outings weren’t smooth. He posted a 3.76 ERA, while his 1.30 WHIP was not the mark of someone who should be considered as a reliable closer. His 4.58 FIP was also a significant red flag. Still, Finnegan entered this season as the club’s closer again, although he likely had a short leash with Hunter Harvey waiting in the wings.
Through 19 appearances entering Tuesday, Finnegan has already racked up 13 saves. Not only that, but he has a 1.89 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. After allowing three runs in his second outing of the season, he has given up just one earned run over 17.1 innings since.
Of all of the players on this list of early-season fantasy MVPs, Finnegan is the one to consider offering up in trades. He has been lucky, posting a .133 BABIP allowed despite opponents having an 8.3 percent barrel rate against him that is slightly higher than his career mark. Also, his FIP checks in at 4.83. Fantasy managers who took him in the late rounds of drafts might be able to get a significant return on their investment by trading him, while having already banked his 13 saves.
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