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We are not deep into the 2024 MLB action, but it's never too early to start submitting waiver claims. This article will discuss fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for the outfield in Week 3 -- April 8 through April 14. Of course, it is too soon to give up on the struggling players that excited you during the draft. However, trading in some of your end-of-the-bench slots for players with more promising ceilings can be crucial to fantasy baseball success in the long run.
Given the brief sample size thus far, these selections will be based less on players' recent performances. Instead, this article will highlight the guys who either went overlooked in drafts or young players whose standing with their team has changed significantly for one reason or another. At this stage, everything is speculative, but it's better to get out in front of the trends.
The names in this article are in order of percentage rostered and are not indicative of a confidence ranking. In the first few weeks, rostered percentages can change quickly. So be quick to check your leagues for their availability.
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Outfield Waiver Wire Adds - Standard Leagues
Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals (41% Rostered)
Lars Nootbaar has yet to debut in 2024, but his minor league rehab stint is underway, meaning he should be back with the major league roster very soon. Fantasy managers hoping to roster him this season should add him now before he is activated and inevitably scooped up in more leagues.
2023 was a solid, yet somewhat disappointing campaign for Nootbaar. His name was trending up following a torrid finish to the 2022 season, and many anticipated the outfielder would take another leap forward. Instead, Nootbaar finished with a decent .261/.367/.418 slash line with 14 home runs and a 118 wRC+ that closely resembled his 2022 numbers.
While Nootbaar wasn't a breakout fantasy producer, the underlying metrics still point to that possibility. Most notably, Nootbaar generated an impressive .356 xwOBA, thanks to an elite 17.1% chase rate and 18.2% whiff rate. Additionally, his .436 xSLG suggests that Nootbaar's power-hitting output is capable of more.
Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres (38% Rostered)
Jackson Merrill has the looks of a player getting ready to break out at the plate. Through his first 10 career games, the 20-year-old is slashing .250/.323/.429 with one home run. The surface stats are solid enough, especially for a rookie, but the advanced numbers are very encouraging. In an admittedly brief sample size, Merrill sports a .529 xSLG, 15.8% barrel rate, 92 mph average exit velocity, 47.4% sweet spot rate, and a .375 xwOBA.
First career HR and first career silent treatment for Jackson Merrill 🤫
(via @Padres) pic.twitter.com/TlPxtwulOT
— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) April 2, 2024
According to MLB Pipeline, Merrill is the second-ranked prospect in the San Diego Padres' farm system and the No. 12 overall prospect in baseball. He offers a 65-grade hit tool compounded by above-average 55-grade power. That translated into a .277/.326/.444 slash line with 15 home runs across 114 games played in the minors last season.
Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals (31% Rostered)
Venturing back into the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, Brendan Donovan has performed well in the leadoff role. He owns a .308/.438/.500 slash line with a 158 wRC+. Donovan frequently sits against left-handed pitching, relegating him to a platoon role, but the results have been there when he's in the lineup.
Looking under the hood, Donovan's underlying metrics are further encouraging. Those numbers include a .287 xBA, .354 xwOBA, 37.3% sweet spot rate, 22.9% chase rate, and a 14.8% whiff rate. His power-hitting is unlikely to evolve much, but Donovan has demonstrated a disciplined approach that translates well into consistent production.
Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies (13% Rostered)
Prime Charlie Blackmon has been fading away for several years now, and at this point, he's not coming back. Still, Blackmon has worthwhile fantasy production left in the tank. He slashed .279/.363/.440 with a 105 wRC+ over 96 games played last season. Blackmon is off to an even hotter start in 2024, generating a .357/.479/.536 slash line through seven games.
The advanced numbers support Blackmon's success this season. He sports a .391 xBA, .440 xwOBA, .609 xSLG, 12.5% barrel rate, and a 50% hard-hit rate. There will certainly be some regression, but Blackmon has an elite ability to make contact, underscored by a 19.2% whiff rate and a 17% strikeout rate for his career. Coors Field treats contact hitters very well.
Outfield Waiver Wire Adds - Deeper Leagues
Willi Castro, Minnesota Twins (9% Rostered)
With Royce Lewis on the injured list, Willi Castro has a clear path to everyday playing time. He's not the most explosive hitter on this list, though he did manage a solid .257/.339/.411 slash line with a 109 wRC+ in 2023. Castro's underlying numbers don't suggest much more upside than that production, but excellent hitting isn't necessarily where his fantasy appeal comes from anyway.
Castro's primary fantasy contribution is stolen bases. He swiped 33 bases last season, and there's no reason to expect he can't steal bags at a similar rate going forward as long as his playing time remains consistent. Castro is absolutely a worthwhile target for stolen base-starved fantasy rosters.
Ezequiel Duran, Texas Rangers (8% Rostered)
Ezequiel Duran can fill out a box score. The 24-year-old doesn't excel in any one offensive category, but if the team commits to him as an everyday player, he has a 20-home run and 20-stolen base potential. Duran slashed .276/.324/.443 with 14 home runs and eight stolen bases a year ago, operating largely in a platoon-style role. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is an eyesore, though a 43.9% hard-hit rate, 90.1 mph average exit velocity, 36.3% sweet spot rate, and elite sprint speed illustrate Duran's upside.
Consistent playing time in a deep Texas Rangers lineup has remained an overhanging question mark for Duran. He started only three of the team's first seven games this year, getting deployed as more of a short-side platoon specialist. However, the recent injury to Josh Jung may shift Duran's outlook significantly. With Jung sidelined for roughly the next 8-10 weeks, Duran expects to step into a much more significant role with the Rangers.
Ryan O'Hearn, Baltimore Orioles (3% Rostered)
Ryan O'Hearn is another platoon-limited hitter, but at least he gets the more substantial end of the deal. He's played in six of the Baltimore Orioles' first seven games, producing a .313/.353/.688 slash line with a 198 wRC+. It's probably an unsustainable pace, though it's worth highlighting that O'Hearn has been a consistent presence at the plate for over a year now.
RYAN O’HEARN SAW THE TIDES HITTING BOMBS AND SAID “HOLD MY BEER” pic.twitter.com/wVDxAcRc6X
— Zach Bollinger (@zachbollinger18) April 5, 2024
Last season, O'Hearn generated a strong .289/.322/.480 slash line with a 118 wRC+ over 112 games played. While his 4.1% walk rate leaves something to be desired, we are willing to overlook it and embrace his impressive batted-ball metrics. These include a 91.9 mph average exit velocity, 10.1% barrel rate, .459 xSLG, and an elite 51.5% hard-hit rate.
More Players to Consider
- Ceddanne Rafaela, St. Louis Cardinals (45% rostered)
- Alex Verdugo, New York Yankees (41% rostered)
- Jose Siri, Tampa Bay Rays (39% rostered)
- Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners (24% rostered)
- Henry Davis, Pittsburgh Pirates (22% rostered)
- Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins (17% rostered)
More Deep-League Players to Consider
- Nelson Velazquez, Kansas City Royals (10% rostered)
- Bryan De La Cruz, Miami Marlins (9% rostered)
- Jared Walsh, Texas Rangers (5% rostered)
- Brandon Marsh, Philadelphia Phillies (4% rostered)
- Jesus Sanchez, Miami Marlins (2% rostered)
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