Top Prospects and Rising Stars: Fantasy Baseball Insights from an Active MLB Player

March 24, 2024

The newest installment of The King's Fantasy Baseball Insider Series features viewpoints from a current American Leaguer.

The newest installment of the FSWA award-winning Insider Series features the perspectives of a veteran American Leaguer that is currently active. He supplies scouting reports on players he has worked with as a teammate and competed against in recent seasons. This current Major Leaguer offers his observations from on the field and in the dugout, and Scott adds in his fantasy takes on the players covered in the interview.

For those who are not familiar, the Fantasy Baseball Insider Series continues on RotoBaller for the 2024 season. Every year during the preseason, Scott Engel chats with prime MLB sources to obtain exclusive perspectives.

Interviewed on the condition of anonymity, current and ex-players, team executives, MLB scouts, members of the media, and others inside the game supply their unfiltered thiughts on key players. Scott provides fantasy baseball analysis on the information shared.

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Jackson Holliday

“I was impressed by him last spring, as he was hitting doubles to left-center and right-center at 19 years old. He’s got the big league pedigree with his father having been so good. I don’t think the moment is ever going to be too big for him. He’s got a good head on his shoulders. I think he is a pretty even-keeled kid. I think the kid is pretty special.”

“You saw it last year, Gunnar Henderson struggled for the first month and a half, but he popped out of it. You’re going to go through growing pains, it’s part of growing as a person and a player, too. He’s still only 20 years old. But he is going to be really good.”

Insider Angles: The move to send Holliday down to the minors was something of a shock, but as this source affirmed, young players will often struggle early whenever they start playing regularly in the Majors. Baltimore’s top prospect ripped it this spring for a .326/.370..628 line. But it appears that the Orioles brass still believe he needs more seasoning and won’t rush him despite the strong spring showing.

Mike Elias said having Jackson Holliday open the season in Triple-A is the best thing for his development.

“It’s about completing his development.”

He listed his lack of experience vs. quality left-handed pitching and playing second base as reasons to start him in the minors.

— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) March 22, 2024

Holliday’s NFBC ADP was at 186 heading into the final weekend of 2024 drafts, so it appears savvy fantasy players widely knew they would have to be patient with the 20-year-old. ATC projections mark him to hit .259 with eight home runs and 10 steals, which seems to be on the conservative side. Those who drafted or will draft Holliday can be confident the upside will impact their fantasy teams at some point this season. It’s just a matter of when that happens, whether he is in the minors or adjusting to the Majors.

Jordan Westburg

“He plays really good defense, and as a hitter, I think he is going to be really good, too. He’s a Mississippi State guy, so he grew up in tough competition. He has shown wherever he’s been that he can play. The ceiling is not super high, but he is still going to be a really good player. I’d say he can hit .265 with 20 homers and 15 steals. It’s hard for a righty in Baltimore because the fence is so far, but he’s got pop and can hit a bunch of doubles.”

Insider Angles: Westburg’s ADP was at 301 and I was able to get him for one dollar in the Tout Wars Mixed Auction draft. Westburg is projected to hit .253 with 13 homers and seven steals. The 30^th overall pick in the 2020 draft was a .278 hitter in the minors, and may have to navigate through some ups and downs in his first full season in the Majors. But for where he is/was drafted, the 25-year-old does have some power and speed promise as a deeper value middle infielder.

Gunnar Henderson

“If Adley Rutschman and Henderson didn’t play in Camden Yards, they would both hit 40 HRs with 20 points more on their batting averages. I think Gunnar will hit .270-plus with at least 30 HRs. He’ll steal more bags this year, too, as they kind of had the red light on him last year. He struggled for the first month and a half last year, and that was him trying to get his feet under him. Once he exhaled, he was on. He was just 21 last year, too.”

Insider Angles: Henderson hit under .215 with an OPS under .750 in the first two months before busting out for a .320/.354/.994 line. Now expectations are naturally higher for him over a full season in 2024, as evidenced by the ADP of 29. Henderson is projected to hit .261 with 25 homers and 12 steals. This source, however, believes we could see more than projected in homers and steals, and that stance should be noted, especially in the latter category.

Grayson Rodriguez

“He was tipping his pitches before they sent him down, and when he stopped tipping, he was dominant. He’s a bulldog with real deal stuff. He throws 98 to 100 and the changeup is good. The breaking ball is coming along, although I don’t think it’s elite by any means. He’ll get there, he is still young. He’s not scared and you saw what he did in the second half and I would expect that again for a full season.”

Insider Angles: In the first half of the 2023 season, Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA, and he took it all the way down to 2.58 in the second half. The Orioles staff reportedly pinpointed that he was tipping pitches, and Rodrguez was able to adjust and rebound well. This year, he is projected to have a 3.71 ERA with a 25.1 K percentage and a 1.18 WHIP. The optimism that he can sustain his second half form has been reflected in the ADP of 67.

Jarren Duran

“If that guy stays healthy he will show that he figured something out. He made a couple of adjustments before he got hurt and went off.  If he plays well for the first month or two then we will know that the adjustments are for real. You can take a flier, you can get good value, so it’s worth it. I would wait a month or so to see if he can get going.”

Kinda ridiculous how easily Jarren Duran made it to second on this play. pic.twitter.com/kk9roX7U3D

— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) March 17, 2024

Insider Angles:  Duran was limited to 101 games last season as he started the year in the minors and eventually had to undergo season-ending toe surgery.  He slumped to a .192/.236/.365 line in August before his season ended, so the 26-year-old still more to prove. He is projected to hit .262 with 13 homers and 28 steals, which would be a respectable return for the ADP of 161.

Jose Siri

“He kind of surprised me with what he did last year. I can see him stealing way more bases.  He has to get on base more to do that, but last year was his first full season of starting with Tampa. It’s really a toss-up about what you can get from him.”

Insider Angles:  Siri’s 25 homers certainly were a surprise last season, and he is ticketed to play regularly again in center field for Tampa Bay. He is projected to steal 19 bases, so you can get 20-20 production if willing to take on the sub-.230 batting average. Siri’s Sprint Speed of 29.7 was 15^th in MLB last season, so he does have 25/25 potential if he can somehow find a way to cut down on the strikeouts (35.7 percentage in 2023). The SB promise is real and he is a good counting stats value at the recent ADP of 285.

Daulton Varsho

“It was his first year in the American League, and his first year in the AL East. When you switch leagues, it’s constant learning. He had a down season, but now this year he’ll be better because he has a season under his belt facing those arms. He will know more of what’s coming and how guys will pitch him. Once guys switch leagues it usually takes a year or so to adjust. He will hit better than 220 while doing more damage. “

Insider Angles: Varsho saw his already concerning BA drop 15 points last season while his homers fell from 27 to 20, and the steals total remained the same at 16. He has also lost catcher eligibility and the ADP was at 201 at last check. This spring, he has shown some hope of a rebound, batting .371 with six steals and nine RBI. This scouting report might be on point regarding Varsho, and a 25/25 campaign might be ahead even if the BA is mediocre.

Vinnie Pasquantino

 “Last year he was hurt, he had that shoulder issue he was fighting through. This year I think you get a .260 BA with 25 to 30 HRs. He is healthy now, and he has the hand-eye and is not a punchout guy. He puts the ball in play with doubles and HRs. He has pop and I think he will be legit.”

Insider Angles: A labrum injury limited Pasquantino to 61 games last season, yet he is projected to hit .274 with 20 homers this year. He hit 18 homers in 73 Triple-A games at Triple-A in 2022, so the HR ceiling may be higher than projected.  There can be a good power return for the recent ADP of 170. Although the RBI projection is just at 73.

Maikel Garcia

“I was impressed by him last year and he looks the same this spring. He hits a lot of balls hard and controls the zone. He can hit well from both sides. He’s got some power and hits balls really hard. He will hit at least 10 to 12 HRs. He’s still learning how to hit for power.”

Maikel Garcia is the most slept on player in baseball pic.twitter.com/Cv3gYAlXzo

— Jonny Cruz (@MissionaryJonny) March 13, 2024

Insider Angles: Garcia is a nifty late target at the recent ADP of 208 based on his 23 steals in 123 games last season. While he did not show off much power in the minors, sometimes players fully blossom at the MLB level. Getting double figures in HRs along with a .265 average and 25-plus steals would certainly delight those who will draft or have drafted the 24-year-old.

Cole Ragans

“He’s pretty special. It’s electric coming out of his hand.  I think you will see more of the same after he came into his own in the second half. He’s still young and he’s learning as well. He’s throwing 99 to 100 from the left side. He’s got a four-seamer and two-seamer at 98 to 100 and nobody wants to see that. He has real ace stuff.”

Insider Angles: After coming over from Texas last season, Ragans pitched to a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 12 games with Kansas City. In 2024, he is projected for a 3.87 ERA with a 25.5 strikeout percentage with a 1.28 WHIP. The career WHIP is 1.25, yet could certainly be lower over the full season in ’24. Ragans may have to obviously scrap for wins with the Royals but can deliver very well otherwise for the ADP of 91.

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