RADIO
Welcome to the Super Wild Card Weekend main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this Super Wild Card weekend main slate of the 2023 campaign -- which consists of all six postseason contests -- I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Matthew Stafford, LAR at DET | DK: $6,500, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $33
Stafford gets a crack at his old Lions squad while returning to Ford Field for the first time as a member of the Rams. The game will naturally be fueled with emotion on the other side as well, considering Jared Goff will be tangling with the team that gave up on him. It all should add up to a back-and-forth affair between two potent offenses, and Stafford could be teed up for one of his higher pass-volume days of the campaign against a Lions defense that is highly adept at stopping the run and allowed the sixth-most touchdown passes (29) and surrendered 351.7 passing yards per game in the last three contests of the regular season.
Matthew Stafford 1st game vs. Lions: Win ✅
Matthew Stafford 1st game in Detroit as a visitor: TBD 👀
📺: #LARvsDET — Sunday 8pm ET on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/fQ4jBBzCkr— NFL (@NFL) January 12, 2024
Jared Goff, DET vs. LAR | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,700, Yahoo: $29
The narrative laid out in Stafford's entry is essentially mirrored in Goff's situation, considering the veteran will have his own healthy dose of incentive and is also up against a defense that's been much better slowing down the run than the pass. The Rams finished the regular season surrendering 254.3 passing yards per contest in the last three games, along with a 65.4% completion rate that was a notable bump up from the 60.8% figure they allowed for the season overall. Goff threw for over 250 yards on 11 occasions during the season -- including five 300-yard-plus efforts -- and tossed multiple touchdowns in nine instances, making him a nice value in game with plenty of expected offensive fireworks.
DraftKings-Only Special:
- Joe Flacco, CLE at HOU | $6,100
Yahoo-Only Special:
- Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. MIA | $28
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Devin Singletary, HOU vs. CLE | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $24
There are a number of ways to go at running back on the full six-game slate, but Singletary could well offer some of the best fantasy-point-per-dollar value of any of them. The veteran took over the Texans' ground game down the stretch, averaging 15.3 DK/13.2 FD and Yahoo points per contest over the last nine games of the season while garnering 19.4 touches per game in that span. Singletary gained an efficient 63 total yards on 12 touches versus the Browns in Week 16 as well, and that was a game C.J. Stroud missed due to a concussion. With Stroud back under center, Singletary should find even more running lanes to work with against a Browns defense that gave up 123.4 rushing yards per game on the road, as well as 120.7 per contest in the last three weeks of the season.
Gimme the overs this week for Devin Singletary's rushing props.
Since Week 12 (per @FantasyPtsData)
CLE
- Highest explosive run rate allowed
- 12th-highest yards before contact/att
-3rd highest ypc to gap runs (Singletary 51.4% gap) pic.twitter.com/Sh9GVvQHlK— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) January 10, 2024
Najee Harris, PIT at BUF | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $24
Harris has been one of the beneficiaries of an appreciably more efficient Steelers passing game under Mason Rudolph. The third-year back has found running room easier to come by with Rudolph opening the air attack more, with Harris closing out the campaign with back-to-back 100-yard efforts and with four rushing TDs in the last three contests overall. Harris was also encouragingly involved again in the passing game in Week 18 against the Ravens, posting a 5-21 line through the air after a three-game drought in that category. The Bills naturally have a quality defense, but with Harris having recorded double-digit rush attempts in each of the last 10 games of the season -- including 53 combined carries in the last two games alone -- there's plenty of potential value at his salaries with that type of volume.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Jerome Ford, CLE at HOU | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $22
DraftKings-Yahoo Special:
- Tony Pollard, DAL vs. GB | DK: $6,100, Yahoo: $22
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Chris Godwin, TB vs. PHI | DK: $6,200, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $22
Godwin has been a trusted target for Baker Mayfield all season, and although he hasn't always provided the caliber of production of years past, he's still proven capable of some spike performances with a pair of 100-yard efforts. Moreover, Godwin finished the regular season on a strong note in the form of a 30-418-1 line on 45 targets over the final five games of the regular season, and he now faces the much-maligned Eagles secondary that facilitated 252.7 passing yards per game during the 2023 campaign. Darius Slay is back from his knee injury for Philadelphia and is reportedly feeling much better than before his recent surgery, but he also hasn't seen game action since Week 14.
Jayden Reed, GB at DAL | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $26
Reed is one of several impressive rookie pass catchers on the Packers, and he's proven a viable rushing threat in addition to his work as a wideout. The impressive first-year pro is likely to be healthier than he has been in weeks after dealing with some nagging injuries to close out the season, and given his dual role and the chemistry he's built with Jordan Love, Reed remains a solid play at his salaries in a game where a tough statistical matchup takes a back seat to the fact Green Bay is likely to have to remain aggressive through the air. Reed's big-play upside is evidenced by the fact he took 13 of his 64 receptions for 20+ yards, as well as the robust 1.95 yards per route run he averaged across his first 16 NFL games.
Jayden Reed's been making big plays all season long 🔥
📺: #CHIvsGB on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/tI0kVxQ5Qt— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. PIT | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $16
Shakir was already on my value radar before it was announced that Gabe Davis (knee) would sit out Sunday's game, and the second-year speedster naturally becomes even more appealing in the wake of that news. Shakir flashed his significant upside on several occasions during the regular season, including in the Week 18 division-clinching finale against the Dolphins when he posted a 6-105 line on six targets with Davis exiting after 18 snaps. Shakir's salaries on all three sites are naturally reflective of a No. 3 receiver role he won't be filling Sunday, and with the Steelers having allowed the fifth-highest yards per completion on the road during the regular season (11.3), they make for great candidates to target with a receiver that took 10 of his 39 catches for 20+ yards.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Jameson Williams, DET vs. LAR | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $14
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Dallas Goedert, PHI at TB | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $18
Goedert could well turn out to be one of the best dollar-for-dollar value plays if A.J. Brown sits out due to his knee injury, but the talented tight end is a strong option at his salaries regardless, considering his upside. The veteran recorded between four and seven catches in Weeks 14-17 before playing just 23 snaps in the Week 18 finale, and he had a 5-41 line on seven targets against Tampa Bay back in Week 3. Meanwhile, the Bucs finished the season having surrendered a generous 102-1,077-7 line to the tight end position, along with averages of 14.9 DK/11.6 FD/Yahoo points.
Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. PIT | DK: $4,600, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $13
Kincaid wasted no time becoming an integral part of the Bills' passing game as a rookie, and he'll be poised to potentially play an even bigger role than usual in this opening-round matchup. With Davis out of action for Buffalo, there will be some extra targets to go around, and Kincaid could certainly be a beneficiary. Not only is the first-year star far from a standard short-area target at his position -- he finished with an 11-171 line on 15 targets over his last two games alone -- but he's also facing a Steelers defense that allowed an 86-864-7 line to the position on the season.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. GB | DK: $4,700, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $18
DraftKings-Only Special:
- Travis Kelce, KC vs. MIA | DK: $6,100
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