RADIO
Welcome to the Week 18 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 18th main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Aidan O'Connell, LV vs. DEN | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $25
Raiders interim head coach Antonio Pierce has stuck with O'Connell throughout his tenure and the rookie has seemingly improved with experience. The Purdue product has posted a 9:5 TD:INT while throwing for 248 yards or more in four of eight games. O'Connell gets a chance to put a positive stamp on his first season while helping the coach that's given him his first extended opportunity in the pros make one more case to keep the job long term against a Broncos defense that's had trouble against the pass on the road. Denver is surrendering 268.6 passing yards per contest in that split and doing so at an elevated completion rate of 68.8 percent.
Davante Adams TD from Aidan O’Connell pic.twitter.com/ABcWPY0P34
— Raiders Report Mitchell Renz (@MitchellRenz365) December 31, 2023
Sam Darnold, SF vs. LAR | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $20
There will be no shortage of value options to consider at quarterback in Week 18, but Darnold may be one of the sharpest to land on, particularly as a great tournament-saving option. Darnold was more than serviceable in some late-season starts for the Panthers in 2022, eclipsing 20 fantasy points in the last two full games he played in Carolina. Accuracy can admittedly be an issue for Darnold, and he won't be playing with front-line 49ers skill players by any stretch; nevertheless, the Rams figure to be playing backups on a defense that's already been suspect against the pass with its starters, and Darnold brings the additional component of some solid rushing upside.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Will Levis, TEN vs. JAC | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $24
- Carson Wentz, LAR at SF | DK: $4,500, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $20
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
James Conner, ARI vs. SEA | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $25
Somewhat lost in the Cardinals' poor record has been Conner's extremely encouraging 2023 season one that's seen him put up his second-highest rushing yardage total of his career (890) while averaging a career-best 4.9 yards per carry. The veteran remains an asset as a receiver as well (23-111-2) and now gets to shoot for the final 110 rushing yards he needs for his first 1,000-yard season against a suspect Seahawks defense that's allowed the sixth-most RB rushing yards (1,648) and second-most rushing touchdowns to the position (18). Seattle has also conceded a 76-559-2 receiving line to RBs, furthering Conner's case.
Zamir White, LV vs. DEN | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $11
White has filled in admirably for Josh Jacobs over the last two-plus games, and with Jacobs already ruled out for Sunday's finale due to his quad injury, the second-year back gets a chance to close out the campaign against the most appealing rush defense to target for fantasy purposes. Denver has surrendered an NFL-high 165.6 rushing yards per road contest, along with an NFL-high 5.7 yards per carry in that split. To top it off, the Broncos have also conceded a generous 88-578-6 line through the air to running backs, so White should have no shortage of paths to success.
Over the last three games, Zamir White has had 20 or more touches and scored 14 or more fantasy points in each game.
The Broncos defense has given up the second most fantasy points per game to running backs. pic.twitter.com/iy8ugHQa8m
58) Over the last three games, Zamir White has had 20 or more touches and scored 14 or more fantasy points in each game.
The Broncos defense has given up the second most fantasy points per game to running backs. pic.twitter.com/iy8ugHQa8m
— Moody (@EricNMoody) January 4, 2024
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Jordan Mason, SF vs. LAR | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $10
- Chase Brown, CIN vs. CLE | DK: $4,600, FD: $4,900, Yahoo: $14
- Pierre Strong Jr., CLE at CIN | DK: $4,000, FD: $4,600, Yahoo: $10
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Jordan Addison, MIN at DET | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $19
Addison may actually be somewhat of a forgotten man in Week 18 due to both the size of the slate and his recent performances. Addison has 28 yards or fewer in three of his last four games, but a matchup against a Lions team that is locked into playoff position and has struggled against the pass all season even when playing starters could well coax a highly productive effort out of the rookie in a game Minnesota needs to have a chance at the playoffs. The Lions are tied for the fourth-most receiving yards allowed to wideouts (2,821) and third-most touchdowns given up to the position (20), brightening Addison's prospects.
Who has a chance to have a lotto-type performance Sunday in Detroit?@PeteBercich - Jordan Addison@3RonJohnson - Harrison Smith pic.twitter.com/eGVUcoPc5I
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) January 4, 2024
Greg Dortch, ARI vs. SEA| DK: $4,600, FD: $5,500, Yahoo: $15
Dortch seems to run every route like his career depends on it, an underdog mentality borne from his status as an undrafted free agent who was nearly out of the league to years ago. The Wake Forest product took full advantage of Marquise Brown's (IR-heel) absence in Week 17 against the Eagles, finishing with a season-best 7-82 line on seven targets. Dortch draws another enticing matchup in this regular-season finale against the Seahawks, which are without Jamal Adams (IR-knee) on the back end.
Bo Melton, GB vs. CHI | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $11
Melton could once again be in position to benefit from a short-handed Packers receiving corps, as Green Bay has three wideouts sporting questionable tags going into the weekend. The explosive rookie has posted a 10-149-1 line on 41 routes over the last two games, with six of his catches and 105 of his yards in that sample, along with the TD, coming in Week 17 against the Vikings. The Bears have been much easier to pass against than run on all season as well, and they'll check into the regular-season finale allowing 278.9 passing yards per road game, along with a 71.3 percent completion rate in that split.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Darius Slayton, NYG vs. PHI | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $11
- Cedric Tillman, CLE at CIN | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $10
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Tucker Kraft, GB vs. CHI | DK: $3,700, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $16
The Packers are one of the teams that have something to play for in Week 18, and Kraft figures to continue being a significant part of an air attack that's dealing with multiple injuries. All of Christian Watson (hamstring), Jayden Reed (chest) and Dontayvion Wicks (chest) will carry questionable tags into game day, and Kraft's fellow tight end Luke Musgrave (kidney) may not be activated from injured reserve. There could be multiple absences stemming from that slew of injury scenarios, a development that would render Kraft, who's averaging a solid 10.7 DK/8.6 FD and Yahoo points per contest in the last five games, in position to thrive against a Bears team that's surrendered a 93-768-6 line to tight ends.
How on EARTH did Juwan Johnson catch this!?pic.twitter.com/lvkjmZPXWD
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) December 31, 2023
Juwan Johnson, NO vs. ATL | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $14
Johnson will undoubtedly be popular this week after his outstanding 8-90-1 effort against the Buccaneers that netted 23 DK/19 FD and Yahoo points. While that matchup certainly foreshadowed a productive day -- hence, Johnson's inclusion in this space last week as well -- he has an even better scenario in front of him Sunday. The Saints need a win to have a shot at the postseason, and the Falcons come in having given up a 92-971-4 line to tight ends due to their defense frequently making life difficult on the perimeter for offense and consequently funneling plenty of action into the middle of the field.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Dallas Goedert, PHI at NYG | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $18
- Josh Oliver, MIN at DET | DK: $2,900, FD: $4,600, Yahoo: $10
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