RADIO
Doug's Week 16 NFL DFS rankings for DraftKings, FanDuel. His top daily fantasy football rankings and DFS lineup picks for cash games and GPP contests.
It says so much about the lack of offense in 2023 that I see seven games with totals of 40 or more points and I think we are in for a scoring bonanza. Who cares that more than half of those seven games have a total of under 45 points; at least we don’t have 80% of our games projected to produce five or fewer touchdowns, as it seemed to be for the last month or so. The Dallas/Miami game is the clear top game on the slate, but they are priced in a way that it’ll be nearly impossible to stack the game adequately. I also happen to think that the game goes significantly under the total, and I’m not a fan of most of the players in that game.
This means that we are going to have to look elsewhere for main stacks and then sprinkle in exposure from the Dolphins and Cowboys. Games like Indianapolis/Atlanta, Seattle/Tennessee, and Cleveland/Houston have added importance with their totals and potential for sneaky shootouts. Tampa Bay, Chicago, and Arizona also present strong cases as teams you can stack with reasonable upside. The plethora of reasonable and affordable options makes this one of the more fun slates we’ve had in a long while.
I’m super excited for Week 16, and my goal is to create a hierarchy of plays so you know who to prioritize when building your lineups! Remember that this article is written early in the week, so please make sure to check in with our Discord for any updates as practice reports come in throughout the week and a clearer picture starts to come into view. Also, be sure to check out all of our other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big!
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DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Quarterbacks
1. Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $6,000)
Yes, we have officially entered “Baker Mayfield in cash” season. Seriously though, Baker has had a heck of a 2023 season. He’s thrown three times as many touchdowns as interceptions and has the Buccaneers on the verge of a division title. While Baker hasn’t had many monster games this year, he’s also had very few duds. He’s had eight games of multiple touchdown passes but has no games with multiple interceptions.
He’s coming off his best game of the season in Week 15, and now he gets a home game against a Jaguars team that has struggled against opposing passing games all year, allowing the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. Baker has the weapons to succeed, and the Jaguars should be able to stay competitive enough to keep Mayfield throwing. He won’t have the volume of Joe Flacco, nor will he have the rushing upside of Justin Fields, but Baker is efficient and should give you a high enough floor to justify his reasonable $6,000 price tag.
Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his CAREER since being drafted 1st overall.
The Browns HAVE to be wishing they never traded away Mayfield now.
Mayfield currently has more passing yards (3,315) than Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert.
More passing… pic.twitter.com/hq0OvG7bIP
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) December 20, 2023
2. Joe Flacco (Cleveland Browns - $5,500)
3. Justin Fields (Chicago Bears - $7,100)
Others in consideration: Nick Mullens, Kyler Murray
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Quarterbacks
1. Nick Mullens (Minnesota Vikings - $5,300)
As I talked about in the intro, it’s going to be hard to fully stack the Dolphins/Cowboys game because of their prices. The optimal way to play this slate could be to stack a cheaper game and then mini-stack two pieces from Miami/Dallas. Minnesota isn’t as inexpensive as some of the other options, but if there’s any other game on the slate that should turn into an absolute fantasy bonanza, it’s Detroit/Minnesota. The conditions for this game should be ideal as it takes place in a dome and both teams have solid enough weapons to take advantage of suspect secondaries.
Mullens looked good in his first start for the Vikings last weekend, and he’s one of the more prolific backup quarterbacks in the NFL. For a while, he was among the all-time leaders for passing yards over a player’s first two seasons worth of starts. He doesn’t win a ton of games, but he knows how to chuck the rock.
Minnesota has a limited target tree, with only Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson garnering enough volume to matter. Detroit is equally easy to use, as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are the only players with enough “guaranteed” volume to matter. Mullens returned four times his price last weekend and in this matchup, he could do so once again this weekend.
2. Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $6,000)
3. Justin Fields (Chicago Bears- $7,100)
Others in consideration: Dak Prescott, Joe Flacco, Jared Goff, Will Levis, Gardner Minshew, Tua Tagovailoa
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DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Running Backs
1. Chuba Hubbard (Carolina Panthers - $5,700)
This is a terrible week for the running back position. There aren’t any studs on this slate, and few at the position are in great spots to succeed. On weeks like this, my goal is to secure as much cheap value as I can find and spend my money elsewhere. Chuba Hubbard has been one of the most active players at the position over the last three weeks. He’s had at least 22 carries in each of those games, which is workhorse back-level volume.
He hasn’t done much with those opportunities, but he also hasn’t been a bust either. He’s scored at least 11.6 DraftKings points in each of those games, and if he could add any work in the passing game (which we know he’s capable of), he’d see that floor start to rise. Green Bay has struggled with opposing running backs all year, so if there ever was a week for Hubbard to break out, it should be this week.
2. Ty Chandler (Minnesota Vikings - $5,600)
3. Breece Hall (New York Jets - $6,100)
Others in consideration: Rachaad White, Raheem Mostert, James Conner, Trey Sermon (if Moss and Taylor are out)
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Running Backs
1. Raheem Mostert (Miami Dolphins - $7,100)
You saw what James Cook did last weekend against the Cowboys, right? It would make sense for Miami to follow suit and use their stud backfield to try to ram it down Dallas’ throat. Raheem Mostert isn’t much of a volume guy, but his nose for the end zone makes up for a lot of that lack of volume. He doesn’t catch a ton of passes either, but the two or so targets per week he gets help raise his floor ever so slightly.
Generally, when a game has as high of a total as the Miami/Dallas game does, people are going to flock to the passing game. The easiest way to get different in that situation is to play the running game. That may be a little bit sketchy if the running game isn’t as talented as Miami’s backfield, but the Dolphins are more than capable of shifting their focus to attack a defense’s weakness. If they do that this week, then Mostert could be a low-owned monster in tournament lineups.
2. Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions - $7,000)
3. Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers - $6,400)
Others in consideration: Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, James Conner, Tony Pollard
DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Wide Receivers
1. Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $6,200)
Mike Evans gets all of the hype for Tampa Bay, but Chris Godwin is the glue that holds this passing game together. Evans’ range of outcomes is wide, while Godwin usually provides a solid floor through a high target volume. He’s had six or more targets in all but two games this year, and he’s exceeded that number in four of his last five games. Godwin’s biggest issue is that he doesn’t find the end zone all that often, but touchdowns are unpredictable and we shouldn’t chase them.
Volume is highly predictable, and in cash games, we want as few variables as possible. Jacksonville is an ideal opponent for Godwin, as they are one of the most generous teams to opposing wide receivers. He may not give you the upside you’ll want in a GPP lineup (where we may be better off with Evans/Cade Otton or Rachaad White), but his floor is perfect for cash games.
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions - $8,200)
3. DJ Moore (Chicago Bears - $6,900)
Others in consideration: Treylon Burks, Parker Washington, Justin Jefferson, Curtis Samuel, a Packers wide receiver (we need injury clarification on Christian Watson and Jayden Reed first), a Colts wide receiver (if Michael Pittman Jr. is out)
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Wide Receivers
1. DJ Moore (Chicago Bears - $6,900)
DJ Moore is a completely different receiver when Justin Fields is the starting quarterback for the Bears. He’s averaging over 20 DraftKings points in games started by Fields, and about half that in games where Fields doesn’t play. Moore has scored 22.6 or more fantasy points in three of the five games since Justin Fields returned in Week 11. He’s had eight or more targets in each of those games. His two bad games in that span were last week against a strong Browns defense and in Week 11 against a Panthers team that you attack on the ground.
The Cardinals are horrendous on defense and should get gashed through the air and on the ground. With Arizona’s offense improving since the return of Kyler Murray, this game profiles strongly for Moore. At just $6,900, he’s a screaming value considering his massive upside.
2. Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings- $8,100)
3. Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $7,600)
Others in consideration: CeeDee Lamb, Jordan Addison, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DK Metcalf, Amari Cooper, Dontayvion Wicks, Calvin Ridley
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - Tight Ends
1. Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals - $5,700)
What. A. Stud. Trey McBride started to emerge as an offensive threat in Week 6, and then Kyler Murray returned to the lineup in Week 10 and completely unleashed McBride. Since then, the second-year Arizona tight end has scored at least 9.3 DraftKings points every week, with three weeks of 22.9 or more fantasy points. He has nine targets in four of the five games he’s played with Murray, and in the fifth game, he had seven targets.
That’s not prime tight end production, that’s prime wide receiver production. Think about McBride’s success like this, he’s priced the same this week as Terry McLaurin, Josh Downs, and Adam Thielen. You’d take McBride 10 out of 10 times with the way he’s playing and it’s not even close. He’s a cash game stud and is viable not only as your tight end in tournaments but also as a flex option. Yes, he’s been that good!
Trey McBride ranks…
[ 1st in Target Rate ]
[ 1st in Yards per Route Run ]and not a single Tight End has a HIGHER PPG since Week 8
Top Three Dynasty Tight End pic.twitter.com/gvtxWx2YSP
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) December 20, 2023
2. Evan Engram (Jacksonville Jaguars - $5,400)
3. David Njoku (Cleveland Browns - $5,300)
Others in consideration: Kyle Pitts, Sam LaPorta, Cade Otton, Tucker Kraft
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - D/ST
1. Tennessee Titans - $2,600
The Titans were pushovers against opposing passing games for the better part of the last two years, but they started to turn the corner about a month ago. Since Week 12, they’ve averaged four sacks and 1.25 turnovers forced per game. During that stretch of four games, they’ve scored no fewer than eight DraftKings points, a more than respectable return for $2,600.
This week, they get a Seattle offense that’s been mediocre at best, coming off an emotional Monday night win against the Philadelphia Eagles. Now, they have to come east for an early-start game against an aggressive defense. It’s well within reason to think that Seattle will regress in this game, and at $2,600, the Titans are in a great spot to pay off as a punt defensive option.
2. Chicago Bears - $2,800
3. Miami Dolphins - $2,700
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