6 NFC South Fantasy Football Draft Targets or Avoids: Undervalued/Overvalued Players

Aidin Ebrahimi's 2025 fantasy football outlook for the NFC South. His top sleepers, busts, targets, and fades for the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, and Saints, including Baker Mayfield and more.

The NFC South used to be one of the most competitive divisions in football, but it has developed a reputation as a bad division in recent seasons. The Buccaneers have won the division every season since 2021, but have failed to make the NFC Championship Game in these four seasons, so they could hardly be described as a juggernaut.

While the collective underachievement of the Falcons, Panthers, and Saints has led to many fans singling this division out as "the league's worst," there are still a lot of great players who play in the NFC South, and they can help you win your fantasy leagues in 2025.

However, there are also some players you should avoid. Without further ado, let's look at six NFC South stars and whether you should draft or fade these players in 2025.

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NFC South Targets

Baker Mayfield - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Finally, after all this time, Baker Mayfield is getting the recognition he truly deserves. He's no longer an undervalued sleeper, but he is someone you should target at his current price (QB7 ADP).

Is Baker Mayfield secretly a Top 5 QB in the NFL? 😳 pic.twitter.com/8NrUgrpHug

— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) June 25, 2025

Mayfield had a season for the ages in 2024, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns with a stellar 106.8 passer rating, and finished as the overall QB4. QB7 is a very fitting ADP for Mayfield, as he's your best bet if you aren't going for a top-6 quarterback.

Sure, Mayfield's 2024 was a huge leap compared to his previous seasons, and he just lost his talented OC. But let's not forget that Mayfield was also a top-10 fantasy QB in 2023, which was a leap compared to his previous seasons, and he also lost his talented OC before the 2024 season.

The Bucs drafted Emeka Egbuka in the first round, and assuming that Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan stay healthy, this could be the league's best WR room in 2025.

The Bucs also have a great O-line (ranked as the third-best unit in the league by PFF in 2024), and new OC Josh Grizzard is an internal hire who worked closely with Mayfield as the team's pass game coordinator in 2024.

So, in short, Mayfield is on the best team in the division with the best receiving corps in the league, has a great offensive line, and knows his new OC well. Even though he's not cheap anymore, he's probably the best-value QB outside of the top six.

Darnell Mooney - WR, Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are headed for a new era, as Michael Penix Jr. is set to be their fifth different Week 1 starting QB in just as many seasons. Penix showed some promise in his three starts last year, and star wideouts Drake London and Darnell Mooney will be key if he wants to retain his starting job in 2026.

While London became a bona fide fantasy star in 2024, Mooney also had a pretty good year. From Week 2 to Week 10, Mooney was the PPR WR8 and was having a Pro Bowl season. Unfortunately, it all came crashing down in Week 11, as he suffered a hamstring injury.

Despite that, Mooney kept playing and had two more good performances: a 142-yard outing in Week 14 and an 82-yard showing in Penix's first start. Mooney injured his shoulder before Week 18, which prevented him from racking up 1,000 yards, but it was still a good season, as he finished as the WR31.

You'd think that he'd have an ADP around the WR30-35 range heading into 2025, but you'd be wrong. His WR47 ADP is lower than players such as Jauan Jennings and Khalil Shakir, which makes Mooney a bargain at this price.

The Falcons haven't made many major additions to their WR room, which means London and Mooney will be Penix's main targets when the season starts. While London will likely be the star of the show, a healthy Mooney won't be too far behind.

Ja'Tavion Sanders - TE, Carolina Panthers

I was high on Ja'Tavion Sanders last year. He was the TE2 on my rookie board and played quite well from Week 6 to 12, putting up 261 yards and scoring a touchdown in six games. However, an untimely neck injury changed everything.

ICYMI: Rookie tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders finished with the most receiving yards by a rookie tight end in Panthers history. 🫡#KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/UlGgHQjjR0

— ً. (@ThomasWrrld) January 6, 2025

Once he returned from that setback, Sanders would have three consecutive games without a reception, and his season went off the rails. Still, he had plenty of good performances throughout the year, which should warrant some optimism heading into Year 2.

Sanders' only real competition for the TE1 job is Tommy Tremble, who is a better blocker but is almost a non-factor when it comes to the passing game. If Bryce Young can take a leap and become a starting-caliber quarterback, Sanders could have a big year and easily outperform his TE30 ADP.

NFC South Avoids

Kyle Pitts - TE, Atlanta Falcons

Drafting Kyle Pitts is like going back to that one toxic ex. You think you've finally broken up for good, but you just keep coming back to them because you feel like you don't have any better options. You want it to work because you can see the potential for something special, but it always ends in disaster.

Now is the time to end this cycle for good. Pitts is talented and has all the tools to be a special player, but he hasn't shown the work ethic to fulfill his true potential. Pitts shows a clear lack of effort in his route running, which has significantly hindered his team's performance in recent seasons.

Pitts is now entering a contract year, and the Falcons are reportedly listening to trade offers for him. Pitts could potentially do better and become the player everyone thought he'd be on a new team, but it doesn't feel like he'll ever return to his best in Atlanta.

He has put up just 1,625 yards and nine touchdowns in the last three seasons combined, and you could find more consistent options who are cheaper than his TE18 ADP, such as Zach Ertz and Cade Otton.

It's time to admit that his great rookie season was a product of Matt Ryan force-feeding him on a team without Julio Jones and (mostly) Calvin Ridley, which led to inflated numbers.

Rashid Shaheed - WR, New Orleans Saints

Everyone knows the Saints will be terrible in 2025, and almost all fantasy managers will try to avoid their players this year, except for Chris Olave and their RB room. With such an unproven QB room, it's hard to imagine any of their pass-catchers other than Olave having a good year.

Over or Under 800 YDS for Rashid Shaheed this season? pic.twitter.com/OWpF1IQRIi

— Trizzy Trace (@tracegirouard48) June 3, 2025

Despite that, Rashid Shaheed is still being drafted quite highly. His WR54 ADP is higher than many potential breakout WRs like Marvin Mims Jr., Quentin Johnston, and Adonai Mitchell.

None of them are on a team as bad as the Saints. Shaheed indeed had a great start to the 2024 season, putting up 338 yards and three touchdowns in his first five games.

But that was with Derek Carr throwing him the football, and not Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, or Jake Haener. Also, he's recovering from a meniscus injury that required surgery, which is a huge concern for a player whose game revolves around speed.

Adam Thielen - WR, Carolina Panthers

Many thought Adam Thielen was "past it" after leaving the Vikings at the age of 32, but he has proved to be a great addition for the Panthers. 1,629 yards and nine touchdowns in 27 games for one of the worst teams in the league is quite remarkable for a player in his 30s.

These stats are nearly identical to what Kyle Pitts has achieved in the past 44 games, a full season more than Thielen. So, why is Thielen on this list alongside Pitts?

Well, despite considering retirement, he has decided to give it one more go in 2025. While he's still a capable player, he's no longer a priority for the team.

Carolina will prioritize developing Tetairoa McMillan, Xavier Legette, and Jalen Coker if it wants to be successful in the Bryce Young era.

Thielen is a great veteran presence who can still put in a good shift and mentor the young guys, but his WR66 ADP is still a bit too high, especially when you can get Legette at around the same spot.

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