May 26, 2016

Zach tells you why he loves Demaryius Thomas at his current ADP and why he feels many are over-correcting on a "down" 2015 season

The people have spoken. Unfortunately what they’ve said is something I strongly disagree with. Currently, the ADP of Demaryius Thomas in a 12 team PPR league is 29th overall and WR17 on Fantasy Football Calculator. This is something I truly don't understand.

Thomas had some drop issues and bad quarterbacking last year and it led to a small decrease in efficiency, but he he still finished as the WR11 overall in PPR leagues in 2015. I feel the fantasy community has overcorrected on this one and I think that Thomas' ADP will begin to rise back up during August. For now, let me explain why Demaryius Thomas is a draft steal at his current price.

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A Deeper Dive into Demaryius Thomas and His 2016 Value

Reason #1: I Don’t Care About Drops

One of the biggest criticisms against Thomas last year and for his value right now was his drop rate. People seem to care about drops only when it fits their narrative. Drops are a little subjective and can vary from site to site. Using Fox Sports statistics, Thomas has finished in the top ten for drops each of the past four seasons. So why does it matter more now than it did two years ago? I’m not sure.

Furthermore, he finished tied for 5th in drops in 2015. Three of the players ahead of him on the list currently have a higher ADP! That would be Mike Evans, Amari Cooper and Brandon Marshall. Evans and Cooper don’t have the proven year in and year out production of Demaryius Thomas yet and Brandon Marshall is 3.5 years older with a QB situation just as questionable as the Broncos. The only time I care about drops is if it keeps a player off the field. Due to his ability and the depth behind Thomas, he will not be kept off the field because of his drop issues. he’s been doing it for years while still being an incredibly productive player. So let’s “drop” that topic and move on.

 
Reason #2: His QB Situation Isn’t As Bad As You Think It Is

The other big criticism is that Thomas will struggle given the quarterback situation in Denver right now. Take a look at these two quarterbacks:

Player A: 64.25% Completion Rate, 7.6 Yards/Attempt, 4.5% Touchdowns, 3.8% Interceptions

Player B: 60.72% Completion Rate, 6.6 Yards/Attempt, 3.1% Touchdowns, 3.8% Interceptions

Looking at those numbers, it’s no contest which player is preferable right? Player A is Mark Sanchez in his 12 games with the Philadelphia Eagles over the last two years. Player B is Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler in 2016 combined. Sanchez had Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz and Jeremy Maclin (in 2014) as his targets. The Broncos of course had Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. I like Jordan Matthews a lot but I don’t think he is at the level of Thomas as a receiver and Sanders is a fantastic #2 receiver in the Broncos offense.

So while Demaryius Thomas wasn’t quite the receiver he had been from 2012-14, he was still really good last year despite poor QB play. As much as I love Peyton Manning, it’s likely that Mark Sanchez is an upgrade over old Peyton. Maybe we won’t see him reach top five numbers but top ten is very reasonable given that he finished as WR11 in PPR last season. To be clear, this projection is assuming Sanchez starts over rookie Paxton Lynch. I do believe Lynch sits for most or all of year one, but in the event he does start, I’m assuming it is because he proves to be more talented and capable than Sanchez. This isn’t always the case with 1st round rookies, but for a contending team that just won a Super Bowl, I believe that would be the reason for the rookie entering the lineup, which would only help Thomas.

 
Reason #3: Demaryius is still the #1 receiver and a Target Hog

A big part of Head Coach Gary Kubiak’s offense is feeding his #1 wide receiver with plenty of targets. Demaryius Thomas was one of only 8 wide receivers with more than 150 total targets in 2015, good for an average of 9.4 targets per game. Between Andre Johnson and Demaryius Thomas, Kubiak has had a WR average at least 9.4 targets per game in all but one of his nine seasons as an NFL head coach. The only exception was 2011 when Andre Johnson only played seven games. In 201,3 when an older Andre Johnson finally had a talented receiver opposite him in DeAndre Hopkins, Johnson still finished tied for first in targets.

Fast forward to 2015, Kubiak steps in as coach of the Broncos, dealing with the aforementioned aging Peyton Manning and inexperienced Brock Osweiler. Despite the poor quarterback play, Demaryius Thomas finished fourth in the NFL in targets with 177, along with Emmanuel Sanders nabbing 136 targets, 13th most in the NFL. With Gary Kubiak entering his 10th season as a head coach, I think the trends with wide receivers from his career will continue. I believe Demaryius Thomas will get a similar number of targets to the totals he has seen over the last four years.

 
Reason #4: Healthy & Proven

Trivia question of the day: How many receivers have played in all 64 games over the last four seasons while simultaneously totaling 4000 yards (1000 yards per season)? There is only one answer to this question and it is Demaryius Thomas. Thomas has an incredible track record of health and I feel like this is an undervalued aspect in fantasy. Risk avoidance is a big part of the early rounds of the draft, and knowing that Thomas has not missed a single game over the past four years while maintaining a high level of performance is a major plus.

Looking on FFCalculator at some of the wide receivers with an earlier ADP than Thomas in 12 team PPR leagues we find player with injury concerns that Thomas hasn't had in recent years. Most notably, Jordy Nelson(WR8) is 31 years old and coming off a lost season due to a torn ACL. Jordy is a great talent with a great quarterback, but I have no interest in taking him while Thomas is still on the board. Julian Edelman(WR11) puts up big PPR numbers, but he has missed 9 games over the last two seasons. Edelman is 30 and has yet to come close to matching Demaryius Thomas over a full 16 games. Amari Cooper(WR12) is a young star on the rise but he fell well short of DT’s fantasy totals in a supposed down year in 2015. Cooper also led the league in drops but doesn’t get knocked for drops to the extent that Thomas does. All three of these examples are going well ahead of Thomas' ADP of WR17. If risk is something you factor into your early picks in a draft, then a strong case can be made for Demaryius Thomas to move up several spots in ADP.

 
Reason #5: He’s not old!

Another strange thing I have seen is people expecting Thomas’ age decline to kick in, or that it already did last year. With a birthday on December 25th, Thomas will play almost this entire season at 28 years old. That is the prime of a wide receiver’s career. It is about a half a year older than than the likes of AJ Green & Antonio Brown, and younger than his teammate Emmanuel Sanders. Most likely Thomas has another two full seasons in him before the age decline kicks in, if not more.

 
Conclusion

In 2015, Demaryius Thomas was the 4th WR off the board according to FFcalc. He had a down year finishing as the WR11 in PPR leagues, however, early drafters have over-corrected on the down year and pushed his ADP down to WR17, which would be considerably worse than any of his finishing ranks the last four seasons. He has stayed healthy in recent years, and as argued above I think he is getting a quarterback upgrade for the 2016 season. This makes Demaryius Thomas a huge bargain where he is currently being drafted. 

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