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3 Fantasy Takeaways from the Serge Ibaka Deal

The Oklahoma City Thunder were a Klay Thompson shooting rampage and an ill-timed choke away from reaching the NBA Finals. They hit their stride in the playoffs, knocking off the 67-15 San Antonio Spurs and threatening to dethrone the Golden State Warriors in a hard-fought seven game series. One would think that with the playoff success the Thunder experienced employing innovative jumbo lineups featuring Kevin Durant at the 3, an Enes Kanter/Serge Ibaka platoon at the 4, and Steven Adams at the 5, they would stick with what worked for them. Alas, that appears not to be the case.

Kevin Durant is set to be a free agent, creating the largest amount of buzz surrounding free agency since Lebron’s “Decision” on 2010. The Thunder know that they must do everything in their power to keep Durant on the roster, and parting with a disgruntled Ibaka to add another playmaker in the backcourt is their plea to keep the ‘Durantula.’

During Thursday’s NBA draft, the Thunder unloaded Serge Ibaka to the Orlando Magic in return for guard Victor Oladipo, forward Ersan Ilyasova, and the rights to Domantas Sabonis, the 11th pick. Thursday’s trade has serious fantasy implications for both the immediate players involved and other players on the periphery of the deal.

 

1. Serge Ibaka should thrive in Orlando

Serge Ibaka needed a change of scenery. Once a member of a fledgling “Big 3” with partners Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, Ibaka stumbled offensively down the stretch while ceding his title of ‘best defender on the team’ to Steven Adams. The 7th year vet who averaged 15.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 2.7 BPG in the 2013-14 season regressed significantly last season, posting numbers of 12.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 1.9 BPG.

The Golden State Warriors have ushered in a new era of three-ball proficiency, and Ibaka has been lauded for adding the shot to his arsenal. However, in the two seasons that the 26 year-old Ibaka has been comfortable shooting the three (3.2 attempts per game in the 14-15 season, 2.4 attempts per game in the 15-16 season), his effective field goal percentage has dropped rather precipitously from 54.8% to 52.5% to 51.3%. Ibaka, having been relegated to camping out along the three-point line while Durant and Westbrook penetrated, saw his effectiveness stagnate. Hopefully Frank Vogel’s attack in Orlando will be a breath of fresh air, providing a niche for Ibaka to showcase his full skillset.

Orlando’s roster, while devoid of established stars, contains solid role players and guards with a high ceiling, like Evan Fournier (RFA) and Elfrid Payton. If Vogel can employ Ibaka much like he employed David West with the Indiana Pacers in the 2012-13 season (17.9 PPG and 7.7 RPG), then fantasy owners with enough guts to select Ibaka in next year’s draft should be in for a welcome surprise.

 

2. Be wary of Dion Waiters and Victor Oladipo

Last season Dion Waiters was a fringe fantasy player, with averages of 9.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG, and 2.0 APG in 27.6 MPG. By almost all metrics (except turnovers), he had one of the worst seasons of his career. Is that entirely his fault? No. Waiters, a 2015 trade acquisition for the Thunder, had his first experience playing with both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on the floor (in 2015 Durant was injured). Like Ibaka, Waiters, who showcased playmaking ability in this year’s playoffs, stood on the wing in hopes of receiving a kick-out off of dribble drive penetration.

With the addition of Victor Oladipo, the Thunder have a logjam at the shooting guard position. Oladipo’s defense and athleticism trump that of Waiters, and his offensive skills are arguably more conducive to what the Thunder need this upcoming season if they continue to feature a jumbo lineup. Oladipo is a slasher, while Waiters is more of a prober, and Oladipo has averaged 1.4 more APG over his entire career compared to Waiters. A pure scorer is not what the Thunder need—since Oladipo has more what coaches call the ‘intangibles,’ he should be expected to steal minutes from Waiters. There's a good chance Waiters may even be on his way out.

However, Oladipo will not enjoy the free reign he was able to procure in Orlando. He is moving from a perpetual lottery team to an NBA title contender. He is playing alongside Russell Westbrook and possibly Kevin Durant. The touches Oladipo has been used to seeing will diminish, so expect last year’s 16.0 PPG to shrink.

 

3. Elfrid Payton is poised for a breakout year

Magic Guard Elfrid Payton has shown glimpses of star potential in his brief two-year career. He posted 14 double-doubles and 1 triple-double last season on his way to averaging 10.7 PPG, 6.4 APG, and 3.6 RPG. He is now the unquestioned point guard for the Magic, so expect his usage rate, which was 20.4%, to skyrocket as he assumes primary ball-handling responsibilities. With a supporting cast of Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, and Mario Hezonja, Payton should be able to dazzle as a distributor and help to fill the scoring void left by the departure of Oladipo.

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