Second Half Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates - Underperformers To Buy Low

July 18, 2026

Mike analyzes fantasy baseball breakout pitchers, underperformers, and sleepers for the second half of 2026. These underperforming pitchers are buy-low fantasy baseball trade targets.

With the first half of the fantasy baseball season in the books, now is the perfect time to look at which players are set to either bounce back in the second half or bust out as well. Inconsistency hurts pitchers in real life, and it also hurts our fantasy squads as well. Yet, much of our game is hedging bets and looking for guys who could be turning proverbial corners into goodness or looking to break out into stardom. 

If your teams are anything like mine, you need starting pitching. For me, that is almost always the case. In deeper leagues, depth is key, so maybe some of the pitchers listed here could simply be depth for you. Or, if you are looking to catch lightning in a bottle and get some luck going your way, these guys could help you out.

So, which pitchers should fantasy managers buy low heading into the second half of the season? The following are some suggestions of guys to target. Some are looking like top prospects on the cusp of a breakout, while others look to be prime bounce-back candidates. Don't let the surface stats fool you; dive past those and see what these guys are doing over the last few weeks to fuel these turnarounds. 

Jake Bennett, Boston Red Sox 

Starting off our list will be a more traditional breakout candidate than a true "buy low."

Ho hum, the Boston Red Sox have another left-handed gem on their hands. Bennett was not as widely considered as his teammates, Connelly Early or Payton Tolle, but he's more widely available right now and should be added in all formats immediately.

The Statcast is blood red; granted, the sample size is small with eight starts. He is not going to wow you with eye-popping strikeout numbers. That is not his game. But getting hitters to chase, keeping them off base with few walks, and inducing a whopping 52.2% ground-ball percentage is his game.

Given the Red Sox's resurgence and their need for him in the rotation, Bennett could take off in the second half. He starts the second half against the Tampa Bay Rays. Bennett is 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.94 WHIP; the one weakness is 35 strikeouts in 47 innings.

He will not be a waiver wire pickup for long. Get on it this week ahead of the breakout.

Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

I have been touting Sproat for over a month, and I think he may be poised for a big second half for the Milwaukee Brewers. Acquired in the Freddy Peralta trade, Sproat has shown signs of life recently that have me thinking about his second half.

Look at the table below showing his monthly splits. June and July were both much better for Sproat, especially June. Is there no fantasy team that can use a 3.46 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts in 26 innings?

You would love to see more wins and added length in his outings, but that could come with the improvement in the second half. I added Sproat where I could in deeper leagues, and you may want to take a look at him as well.

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

The White Sox were big believers in Burke when they drafted him in the third round, even as he was injured at the time. Burke is beginning to reward that faith. He has been their best starter over the last six weeks, with four wins and 55 strikeouts in 40 innings. That catches the eye.

Burke hit the All-Star break with a 6-4 record in 19 games, 15 of those starts. In those four other appearances, he appeared as the so-called piggyback option behind an opening pitcher. Burke has posted a 3.41 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 115 strikeouts in 105 innings.

See his Statcast data below. The metrics seem to support his performance thus far. Average fastball velocity is supported by almost seven feet of extension from his 6'6", 240-pound frame. His 26.4% K% is in the 75th percentile in baseball. He limits walks and has a good chase percentage.

He is on the waiver wire in many leagues and should not be. This is the type of pitcher to add now, and I hope that he can help you win weeks and categories over the next few weeks.

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

I love that a team has finally figured out a role for Jax to excel in and appears set to leave him alone there. Fantasy players are going to wake up soon and recognize that Jax can pay dividends for their team immediately.

Jax got off to a horrible start in 2026, struggling to get his ERA under 7.00 for a good portion of the first two months in the bullpen. At the end of April, the Tampa Bay management team decided to move him to the rotation and work on stretching him out as a starter.

Still only going five innings per start, Jax has posted good numbers: five wins, a 3.47 ERA, a sparkling 1.00 WHIP, and 71 strikeouts in 70 innings. Some fantasy players will shy away because they worry about the lack of innings, but you are far more savvy. Innings are coming.

Jax has a 31.1% whiff percentage and a 33.4% chase percentage. With the Rays one of the best teams in the American League, Jax is one of the most important cogs in their machine right now. He starts the second half of the season against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway. Target him in a trade (or via the waiver wire in shallower leagues) ahead of his second-half breakout.

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

Flaherty has long tantalized with his ability, but his inconsistency can be maddening for fantasy players, me being one of them. I love getting him as my fifth starter where I can. This season, that looked like a terrible move. Until it didn't in June, when Flaherty started to turn his season around.

An ERA hovering in the 6.00 range and no wins did not inspire my confidence in him. But Flaherty has looked like a new pitcher over his last six starts. A win, a 2.50 ERA in June. Two wins, a 1.54 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP in July. The 34 strikeouts in 29 innings.  Look below.

We have seen Flaherty be really good in stretches before, and with the Detroit Tigers seemingly awakening from their season-long slumbers, Flaherty could be a great fit on your roster moving forward this year.

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Pfaadt was a fantasy darling until he wasn't in 2025. While he did win 13 games, it came with peripherals of a 5.25 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, and only 147 strikeouts despite 176 innings pitched.

He was relegated to the minor leagues before resurfacing this year as a relief pitcher. Necessity moved him to the rotation, and he has performed well in his last two starts. A tweak in his delivery and a renewed emphasis on command, coupled with throwing his changeup to lefties, may be helping.

Pfaadt has been on a pitch count since his return to the rotation, but he has pitched at least five innings in each of his three starts and has allowed two runs or fewer in all three.

Over that same span, he has issued only one walk. I am willing to take a flyer on him and see how he does coming out of the All-Star break; the depleted Arizona rotation needs him, so he should get lots of chances in the second half.

Gabriel Hughes, Colorado Rockies

I could be dead wrong on this one, but I think Hughes could man a spot in the weak Colorado rotation for the rest of the season. If you look at his surface stats in Triple-A, you may shy away: two wins in 11 starts, a bloated 5.31 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP despite a 27.7% K%. I can understand your skepticism at this point.

But those stats come from the PCL, which represses pitching stats while inflating hitting stats. What I like is this pitch mix: a heavy fastball with lots of spin, and a new sweeper that he has a feel for now after several minor league starts, a pitch he learned from teammate Michael Lorenzen in spring training. It's been effective, as well as simplifying what he is doing to throw strikes and stay ahead in counts.

Hughes has only pitched two games since his recall; in his first, he earned a three-inning save. Given a start against the world champion Los Angeles Dodgers next, Hughes pitched six innings of three-run ball while striking out seven hitters.

Take a flyer on him if you can, while recalling that the moribund Rockies are under new management that is focused on player development and simplification for players. Hughes could be a deep sleeper in the season's second half.

I would rather take a shot most times on a potentially exciting youngster rather than a boring veteran near the end of a career.

Hopefully, there are some interesting picks for you here that can help your team in the second half. Happy hunting for pitching that can help you either get back in the race or help you win the league. Never give up on your teams and keep grinding!

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