2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Depth Chart Analysis - Southwest Division

October 9, 2021

Antonio Losada looks at fantasy basketball depth charts for the upcoming 2021-22 season to find players worth chasing with high usage rates and small competition, and players worth avoiding with lower usage rates and stuck in clogged squads.

The regular season is inching closer by the day, and most offseason moves have already been completed--barring a surprising Simmons/Beal/Dame trade before tipoff. Each team's depth chart is mostly complete, so it makes sense to start analyzing how it could work come October. Before diving into the fantasy season, RotoBaller has you covered with some last-minute basketball depth chart recaps for each team, including some useful bits of analysis for players you want to keep on your radar.

The charts below are based on usage rates and minutes per game data from the 2021 season, while the rosters have been updated to reflect these offseason moves. The charts don't include players drafted this past July, as we don't have data about them regarding MPG/USG% in the NBA. That being said, comments will be made on rookies when deemed necessary in each team breakdown blurb.

Here are the current preseason depth charts for the Western Conference Southwest Division.

Western Conference - Southwest Division Depth Charts

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs entered the offseason with a clear target in mind: Kyle Lowry. But in true Dallas/Cuban fashion, they botched it and had to find positives in adding former-Knick Reggie Bullock to the fold. While KP missed time last season, the truth is that when he was on the floor along with Luka he wasn't really any sort of threat for Doncic's numbers and chances; Luka finished 2021 with the largest USG% among his teammates and it is not that it was even close--in fact, Doncic's 36% was the largest mark among starters and third-highest leaguewide, all players considered.

There is nothing hidden in this rotation when it comes to Luka's value. Just draft him, start him, and forget about it. Now, when it comes to second and third bananas, though, you better watch out. Porzingis wasn't bad in 2021, but he could only finish ranked 100th in fantasy leagues and as the 29th-best player on FP per minute. There have been rumors about a potential trade. That sounds a little bit impossible right now, but we'll see where it ends.

The true "steals" from the Mavs could be found in Tim Hardaway Jr. and most of all Jalen Brunson. Depending on Reggie Bullock's new role, THJ will start or come off the pine most nights. No matter what, he was arguably the second-best player in a Mavs uniform last season and that should stay the same with not much competition at the position. Brunson is clearly the backup point and will eat pine-time in bunches, though he's getting into his age 25-season, still improving, and getting better by the day. He was one of my favorite WW targets to write about weekly and he was fantastic for Dallas' second unit. With no PGs arriving in town, he should get an even heavier load next season.

Memphis Grizzlies

There is little to no chance Memphis was expecting to be this good, this soon. The Grizzlies lucked into no. 2 pick Ja Morant just a couple of years ago, and since that moment they haven't looked back in the slightest of ways. They missed on the Bubble Playoffs, but they got in this season after posting their first winning record since 2017, led by Ja while missing JJJ for most of the campaign. For such a young team as this Memphis squad is, the results can't be more promising.

Steven Adams arrived from NOLA in exchange for Jonas Valanciunas. The latter was a much better fantasy option than Adams, who is now the eldest of Grizzlies when it comes to NBA experience--at just 8 years-pro though. I'd fade Adams, make Morant a priority come draft-day, and definitely keep a close eye on JJJ as a late-round pick considering his upside and the fact that his injury concerns will be there for some fantasy GMs.

Jaren Jackson is one of my Comeback Player of the Year candidates for a reason (you'll read that piece by mid-September). Now, for the third- and fourth-best players in this squad, those honors go to Kyle Anderson and De'Anthony Melton. Anderson posted 1.05+ FP/min (league-average at just 0.90) while starting all games he played, and Melton was fantastic to close the season averaging 20 FP per game to the tune of 0.96 per minute with an average 9-3-2-1 line as a rookie in only 20 MPG. Watch out for Brandon Clarke taking on a heavier role and eating from Kyle Anderson minutes and chances, though.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs, once for all, decided to go full-commitment into Rebuilding Mode this offseason. DeRozan, Aldridge (retired last year), Rudy Gay, and Patty Mills all left Texas this summer and found new homes. Only recently acquired Doug McDermott, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Thaddeus Young are entering age-30+ seasons in 2022 and with the exception of McDermott, all starters will be 26 years old or younger. Talk about growing pains.

There is a clear target in this squad, and that is Dejounte Murray, he of the Olympic Gold. Murray will man the point, put on 30+ MPG, and comes off a top-75 and lately top-28 couple of fantasy seasons--yes, he was better than DeMar DeRozan (30th-best) in fantasy leagues last year. Outside of Murray, though, things aren't that rosy. No player other than the aforementioned McDermott/Young/Aminu has been in the L for more than 7 years, so it will take a miracle for this team to produce anything of substance.

That being said, I have a couple of deep-league/WW targets donning Spurs threads next season. San Antonio has thrown a dart toward Zach Collins, signing the oft-injured former-Blazer to a deal this offseason. Collins is about to turn 24, but he only played 11 games in 2020 and missed the 2021 season entirely recovering from multiple injuries. That 2020 season seemed to be Collins' breakout year, only it ended cut way short. But the upside and the hopes remain there, and no fantasy GM will be paying a ton of draft capital to grab him early--steal potential right there for you. The other name is that of another biggie, Jakob Poeltl, who should pair with Collins inside as a non-floor-stretching center getting stuck in the paint. Nothing incredibly mindblowing from him last season, but the 8-8-2 in 27 MGP to go with 1.8 BPG and 0.7 SPG look very good to me.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are starting to enter very dangerously--and disappointing--waters. Zion is entering his third season as a pro, but the Pels have yet to finish a season on the winning side of things since he arrived and although Zion should re-up with NOLA when the time comes, he could also become the first heralded rookie to turn down that potential extension, entering FA super early in his career if things don't change for the good. And, as far as things look, that might very well not happen in 2022.

You draft Zion blindfolded. And with Lonzo out of town and NOLA doubling-down on Brandon Ingram as the no. 2 weapon, you probably can do so with the latter too. Zion and Ingram finished 16th and 27th in fantasy leagues last year, and that shouldn't change a lot--in fact, if it changes I'd bet on a raise more than anything. Eric Bledsoe is gone, and Devonte' Graham will be tasked with taking on the point duties whenever Zion doesn't run plays himself.

I have always loved Valanciunas in fantasy contests. He's a must-have no matter the team he plays for. As simple as that. JoVa is a lock to put up nightly dub-dubs and closed 2021 ranked 29th overall on total FP over the year. Can't get much better than that (17-12-2 per-game line) at a cheaper price. Josh Hart is a sneaky winning-play coming off the pine, though his usage was ground-level last year so it's not that I'm losing my mind to land him. Graham isn't as volatile a player as you might think and will benefit from having a couple of biggie boys playing along with him, but I doubt he will even reach the (already low) 21 USG% mark he put up last season.

Houston Rockets

Impact Rookies: Jalen Green (SF), Alperen Sengun (C)

Houston might have the most ridiculous chart of all 30 teams in the Association. That's because last season's roster and what we'll see in 2022 will have little in common. John Wall is poised to make a return and seemed locked into proving haters wrong. That's cool and all, but he shouldn't be finishing almost 32% of possessions himself at this point in his career and given his latest outings. Might sound ridiculous, but the Rockets should feed the rookies and "true" franchise-player Christian Wood all they can eat.

No. 2 pick Jalen Green doesn't feature in the chart above because he's just entering the league, but the kid's a walking bucket and most probably the best/most-impactful rookie to roster in fantasy leagues this season. Eric Gordon didn't play a ton of games last season, but he hogged the ball like a champ with his ridiculous 25 USG% and below-average production (0.89 FP/min)--let's hope he gets moved before the tip-off or just days into the season.

Daniel Theis could have been a fine target (perhaps more in deep formats) replacing departed Kelly Olynyk, but the presence of both Usman Garuba and Alperen Sengun killed his upside. The former will struggle in his rookie year, but Sengun could turn into a nice player and low-key fantasy steal (for what he is) from day one. Kevin Porter Jr. will have his days, sure, but I'd advise passing on him and letting others spend draft capital on KPJ and his stupid 15-FP volatility mark--yes, he's as prone to have monster nights as to lay down the roundest of eggs.

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