Which Rookie QB Can Turn Their Franchise Around? (2024)

May 27, 2024

Aidin Ebrahimi breaks down the fantasy football value of 2024 first-round rookie QBs and looks at their chances to turn around the franchise they were drafted by.

A record-tying six quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and we all know how great the last draft that had six QBs in the first round turned out to be. The 1983 NFL Draft is still regarded as one of the greatest drafts of all time, having produced three Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

So, saying that expectations are high for this draft is an understatement. Six franchises are convinced that these young men can finally turn their franchises around and finally bring their teams back to the top. But which one of these six QBs will be successful in that quest?

With that being said, let's run through all six first-round QBs and predict which ones are going to get their new teams to the next level.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Just like Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck, Caleb Williams is one of those "sure thing" QBs who has been destined for stardom for a very long time.

Yes, Williams is not your typical modern-day quarterback. Most QBs in the modern age are almost like robots, but Williams is flamboyant, emotional, and has a very outspoken father who would make LaVar Ball blush.

Thoughts on Caleb Williams… pic.twitter.com/mOXFN5qek1

— Kyle Brandt (@KyleBrandt) March 28, 2024

But you can't deny his talent. A lack of personality among the big stars isn't just an NFL problem, we're seeing it across all sports. So regardless of how you feel about him, Williams' personality will be a breath of fresh air.

He's a complete quarterback who can extend plays and just has that "it" factor. The Bears have infamously never had a 4,000-yard passer, but if Williams can't do it with this star-studded receiving corps, then no one can.

Verdict: The combination of his incredible talent, the WR room, and solid defense around him means that he can turn this team around very quickly.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels shocked everyone last year, as he finally put all the pieces together and won the Heisman Trophy during his fifth year in college. Daniels is a good athlete who can put the league on notice, just like Anthony Richardson.

However, we all know Richardson's rookie season was cut super short last year due to injuries, and they could also be a concern for Daniels. He's nowhere near as strong as Richardson and has a skinny frame.

#Commanders QB Jayden Daniels going through drills at today’s OTAs pic.twitter.com/03ll5eGgnT

— brandon (@JayDanielsMVP) May 22, 2024

Even though he hasn't had any major injury setbacks yet, there will always be a ton of risk involved with skinny, dual-threat quarterbacks. As for his team, the Commanders are a mess right now.

While they had a really impressive draft, they need to have multiple impressive drafts before Daniels (or anyone else) can turn them around.

Verdict: He can turn the team around if he stays healthy, but the Commanders will need a few years before they can get back to being competitive.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Drake Maye is NOT like Mitch Trubisky as a player, so these comparisons must stop. However, Maye has found himself in the same situation as a young Trubisky as he looks to be his team's franchise savior.

Trubisky was supposed to take the mantle from Jay Cutler and lead the team to glory, but he failed. Obviously, we cannot expect Maye to even remotely come close to the last successful Pats QB in Tom Brady, as Brady is the greatest player this sport has ever seen.

New Patriots QB Drake Maye: “Tom Brady is the GOAT 🐐. I’m not going to try to be Tom Brady. I’m going to be Drake Maye.” pic.twitter.com/hhdcYpgE3Y

— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) April 26, 2024

But Maye should usher in a new era in New England after the disappointing tenure of Mac Jones. Maye is already an upgrade over Jones but might have to sit behind Jacoby Brissett for a season.

This team needs a bit more help in the receiving game, so letting him sit for a year while the team around him gets stronger is a wise move.

Verdict: Should probably sit for a year behind Brissett, and then the Pats should draft and sign WRs in the 2025 offseason. If that happens, there will be no excuses for Maye.

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

One of the most shocking moves in draft history, the Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. despite splashing the cash on Kirk Cousins in the offseason.

Penix Jr. is actually a pretty good fit next to Bijan Robinson, as he's a pocket QB with a strong arm who can make good reads and play-action throws.

Michael Penix throwing dots in camp already pic.twitter.com/DGF0Ljg4i9

— Not Bijan (@InBijanWeTrust) May 14, 2024

In theory, the Falcons can run it on first down for an 8-yard gain with Robinson and then go with a PA pass on second down for a huge gain. In reality, the team will have to rely on Cousins for the next few years.

Assuming that Penix starts when he's 27 (he's currently 24), Robinson will be in his fifth season and he might slow down and rack up wear and tear on his body. Penix also can't scramble or extend plays with his feet.

Verdict: Kirk Cousins will turn this team around, not Penix.

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy is a player who is not afraid of the big moments. And when he has Justin Jefferson on his team, there will be plenty of big moments for him.

The key thing for McCarthy is to show that he's good enough to at least keep the team afloat without Jefferson. Nick Mullens looked great with Jefferson, but if Jefferson goes down like he did last year, McCarthy needs to keep getting results.

JJ McCarthy (9) and Justin Jefferson (18)

18/9 =2 (A number they both wore in the past)

18-9 = 9 (JJ!)

9x2 = 18 (Jets!)

9+2 = 11 (the last draft spot the Vikings took a QB)

So many stars aligning for a special QB to WR connection! 🔥🔥🔥#JJ2JJ #skol 😂 pic.twitter.com/oAN2aqMBzI

— Andrew (@InfraRen) April 29, 2024

With Jefferson, it's not hard to get results, and for a player as clutch as McCarthy, this pick could be a roaring success.

Verdict: As long as Justin Jefferson is healthy and under contract, this pairing will work.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

The Broncos haven't had a good QB since Peyton Manning rode off into the sunset, and the team has been in shambles ever since. Now, they're relying on Bo Nix to finally get them out of "No Man's Land."

Nix doesn't have the highest upside due to his age, and the very simple offense that he ran in Oregon is far from how a normal NFL offense operates.

“This fit has been there in the Sean Payton system for a while.” @CharlesRobinson and @MattHarmon_BYB break down Bo Nix’s fit in Denver 🤠 pic.twitter.com/rxr1fc8QsG

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) April 26, 2024

Still, though, if famous QB whisperer Sean Payton can build the right system around him, Nix can function well as a high-quality system QB who can make the right throws and avoid making mistakes. For that to happen, the team around him needs to get better.

Verdict: Could be an effective system QB with the right pieces around him.

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