June 15, 2017

Ed Sutelan analyzes the performance of recently promoted MLB prospects and how they factor into the 2017 fantasy baseball picture in week 11.

Welcome to the 2017 edition of the Recently Promoted Prospects! Here I discuss some recently promoted prospects and what to make of their production for fantasy owners.

I think it’s safe to say the Super Two deadline has passed. This week, four players from MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects list were promoted, making it one of the biggest weeks for promoted prospects since the early part of this season. With names like Brinson, Martes and Fisher all rising to the majors over the past week, owners will certainly have a lot of questions about how to evaluate each player. Hopefully, I can help answer some of those questions.

So without any further ado, let’s get right into talking about the recently promoted prospects for week 11!

Hitters:

Lewis Brinson (OF, MIL) - 9% owned
The high ownership rating confirms what I already knew to be true: no prospect promotion was more game-changing this week than Lewis Brinson’s. With both Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar hitting the DL, Brinson was called up to serve as the team’s primary left fielder while the other two stars were absent. So far, the results haven’t been great, as he has a .091/.231/.091 slash line and a 38.5 percent strikeout rate. Safe to things, things could have started better for MLB Pipeline’s No. 12 overall prospect.

Brinson has a chance to be a real impact player this year, but he needs to break out of his funk soon, and he needs a trade or another injury to remain on the big-league club for the remainder of the season. Braun will be back eventually, and when he is, he will reclaim left field and relegate Brinson to the minors. It is entirely possible that the Brewers could train Braun, but with them in the top spot in the NL Central, they may just opt to let things play out and see what happens. His incredible power/speed combination warrants an automatic own in deep leagues, but shallower leagues don’t quite need to get in on the fun until he has a clear path to PT.

Derek Fisher (OF, HOU) - 2% owned
When Josh Reddick was placed on the 7-day DL with a mild concussion, the Astros decided to call up stud outfielder Derek Fisher. Fisher had been enjoying the best minor leagues season of his career at Triple-A, slashing .335/.401/.608 (career-bests across the board) with 16 home runs (tied for career-best despite 24 fewer games) and 13 stolen bases (on pace for a career-best 35). He has also reduced his strikeout rate to a career-low 19.3 percent while keeping that walk rate at a respectable 9.1 percent. So owners who have been patiently waiting for the former UVA product to get his call up to the majors were likely ecstatic to see his name appear in Wednesday’s lineup against Texas.

I actually believe Fisher at this moment is the best fantasy prospect to own on this list. He will be given every opportunity to start with Reddick on the DL, and could replace Nori Aoki in left field should he hit well enough to warrant an extended stay in the majors. He could also be viewed as one of Houston’s top trade candidates if they decide to go after a starting pitcher. I think Fisher has the best chance at having a fantasy impact of any player on this list and he should be rostered in all 12+ team leagues at this point given his exciting power/speed combination.

Jacob Stallings (C, PIT) - 0% owned
One could say the Stallings name is prominent in the state of Pittsburgh. Jacob is assuming backup catcher duties with Elias Diaz becoming the starter (following the injury to Francisco Cervelli) and his father Kevin is the head coach of the men’s basketball team. Unfortunately, Jacob is not going to provide owners with much more than a few at-bats while Cervelli is out, and wouldn’t even have much to offer if he was the starter. It is a cool story, and one that would make a great feature for a journalist in the area, but he does not need to be owned in any format.

Jaycob Brugman (OF, OAK) - 0% owned
Called up following the injury to Matt Joyce, Brugman has so far performed well in his five games in the majors. He owns a .300/.349/.300 slash line and a reasonable 21.7 percent strikeout rate. Should fantasy owners go crazy? No. The simple answer is no. He has never done much more than post reasonable batting averages in the minors, and neither has much power nor speed. He also should not expect to start in the outfield forever, as Matt Olson might come back up to the majors and take a starting spot out there. He should be ignored in all leagues.

Chad Huffman (OF, STL) - 0% owned
A 32-year-old making his Major League debut is nothing to get super excited about. It’s even less exciting when he was not doing much at Triple-A this season and has no clear path to playing time. Huffman is no Fisher or Brinson, and can be left on all waivers.

Pitchers:

Francis Martes (SP, HOU) - 3% owned
Had this been any other week, Martes’ name alone would have stolen the show. Arguably the top right-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball, Martes was called up recently and given a chance to make a spot start against Texas, allowed just one run on three hits and two walks over five innings with eight strikeouts. Should owners be excited?

Yes and no. Maybe, is probably the best answer. Martes had done little to warrant a call up to the majors as he had posted a 5.29 ERA, 5.94 FIP and had yet to make it out of the sixth inning in any start. His clear issue came in the form of walks, where he issued free passes at a 17.2 percent rate, walking at least three batters in all but one of his eight starts. However, there is no denying the talent present in his arm, nor is there any denying how effective he looked in Wednesday’s start. But owners should be extremely cautious with Martes, and probably avoid owning him until he can string together a few more quality outings.

Josh Hader (SP, MIL) - 2% owned
Another guy who could’ve stolen the show had it not been such a big week for prospect promotions, Hader quietly snuck up to the majors last week and debuted on Saturday as a reliever. In his debut, he walked two and struck out one in a scoreless inning of work. Though the only two outings he has had so far have been of the relief variety, he could certainly see a spot start later on down the road.

But the risk here is similar to the risk with Martes. Beyond pure pedigree, Hader did nothing to warrant the promotion. He had a 5.37 ERA and 7.01 FIP over 52 innings at Triple-A. And though the hitter-friendly confines of the Colorado Spring Sox home stadium likely played a role in his struggles, a 13.6 percent walk rate is difficult to overlook. He has the stuff to succeed, but his command and control have a long way to go before he can really be a trusted player in fantasy leagues. Unless you are in a dynasty league, I suggest you leave him on the waivers.

Daniel Gossett (SP, OAK) - 1% owned
Ah, finally a guy who earned a promotion. Gossett had been putting together a fine season at Nashville, posting a 3.41 ERA and 3.75 FIP over 60.2 innings of work. The key to his success has been the bane of the aforementioned two pitchers on this list: he’s kept the walks in check. He has walked only 7.5 percent of opposing hitters, while still managing a strikeout rate of 21.4 percent.

He was really roughed up in his big-league debut, however, allowing seven runs (six earned) on six hits and a walk over 3.1 innings of work. He had just one strikeout. But with both Kendall Graveman and Andrew Triggs both expected to be on the DL for a little while longer, Gossett could get another opportunity to redeem himself. He is one of the more intriguing players to follow, and while I would still not yet advise adding him in all leagues just yet, he should be monitored in 14+ team leagues and possibly added as a depth piece in deep/AL-only leagues as long as he remains in the majors.

Marco Gonzales (SP, STL) - 0% owned
Gonzales was only called up for a spot start against Milwaukee, and it was just as well because he was not going to be a recommended fantasy own anyways. Once considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, Gonzales has labored over the years with injuries and inconsistency, and now is only doing so-so in Triple-A with his 3.26 ERA and 4.71 FIP. He is still being victimized by the home run ball (13.8% HR/FB) and isn’t missing many bats (19.4 percent strikeout rate). Factor in the effectiveness of St. Louis’ rotation and the presence of Luke Weaver as their next best starting pitcher, Gonzales should be ignored in all formats.

Nik Turley (SP, MIN) - 0% owned
Turley has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the minors this season, and finally got a chance to prove himself in the minors. At Double-A to begin the season, he posted a sparkling 0.37 ERA and 0.45 FIP over 24.1 innings of work (three starts, five appearances) and was nearly as spotless at Triple-A with a 3.49 ERA and 2.46 FIP over 28.1 innings (five starts, seven appearances). It certainly helps when he posted a 52.3 percent and 33.1 percent strikeout rates, respectively. His MLB debut was awful, however, and he is only slated for one more start with Hector Santiago’s return nearing. If he gets an extended MLB look, he might be worth an add in some formats. But for now, he can be used as a streamer in his next start and discarded until his next rise to the big leagues.

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