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Noche UFC DraftKings DFS Lineup Picks (Silva vs. Delgado): Expert Daily Fantasy Strategy

Ignacio Bahamondes - UFC DFS Picks - MMA DFS Lineups

Austin Swaim's UFC DFS lineups picks for Noche UFC - Silva vs. Delgado. Top MMA fighter picks this week include Ignacio Bahamondes, Tommy McMillen, Tim Elliott, and Jose Miguel Delgado.

Every week, DraftKings Daily Fantasy has MMA contests featuring the full schedule of UFC fights. The DFS slate for Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado locks Saturday at 2 p.m. EST on Paramount+.

Saturday's main event is a short-notice clash of featherweight strikers. As no stranger to highlights, Mexico's Jose Miguel Delgado is looking for another as he steps in against a top-five contender, Jean "Lord" Silva, in an attempt to enter the title picture.

Here is a full breakdown of my favorite picks on the card in each pricing tier.

 

Noche UFC DraftKings DFS Studs to Target

Ignacio Bahamondes ($9,500)

"La Jaula" is an intriguing DFS pick in his welterweight debut.

Ignacio Bahamondes is trading power for a speed and skill advantage at 170 pounds, which always felt like an inevitable move for the 6'3" kickboxer. Even I might be pigeonholing Bahamondes as "just a kickboxer", though.

His striking success rate (+1.92 SSR) is outstanding and towers over that of his opponent, Muslim Salikhov (+0.41), but he's also got multiple wins by submission and attempts 0.6 per 15 minutes. He can finish fights on the ground, too.

Time and attrition are on his side. Salikhov, while skilled, is 42 years old and has been dropped in two of his last five fights.

Overall, the market is probably overrating his power and finishing upside, but I still have the Chilean modeled as 43.5% likely to find an early stoppage.

 

Tommy Gantt ($9,400)

In cash games, Tommy Gantt's floor dominates many other strikers in this high-salaried range. Simply put, those guys need finishes to score. Gantt really doesn't.

He's landed 11.29 takedowns per 15 minutes with poor enough efficiency (39%) to show that he's really got staying power deep into the fight if his opponent isn't resisting too heavily.

I am not sure Drakkar Klose has those tools of resistance.

At 39 years old, his power has faded to a mediocre 0.31% knockdown rate (KD%), and his 69% takedown D isn't poor on paper, but he's allowed 4 on 13 attempts since returning from an injury layoff, and that's without facing a stylistic wrestler like Gantt.

At some point, a fighter will have the experience and jiu-jitsu defense to survive 15 minutes with Gantt, and it could be Saturday. But he'll almost certainly still break the slate, encroaching double-digit takedowns.

 

Regina Tarin ($9,100)

Regina Tarin is just one fight into her UFC career, but she's on fantasy watchlists after a high-paced striking effort in her debut.

She landed 114 significant strikes and a takedown against Ernesta Kareckaite, a multi-time divisional winner, at March's Mexico City event. Now, the Mexican-born flyweight will try her hand at Noche UFC.

JJ Aldrich (11-6 UFC) is a stable, reliable opponent, but she's also no danger to Tarin having 15 minutes to score. She's got zero career knockdowns and submission attempts.

Instead, it's Tarin -- large for the weight class at 5'7" -- that showcased a couple of submissions on the regional scene.

Finishing a durable veteran like Aldrich might be a long shot, but there can be upside at a low projected roster rate (16%), per RotoBaller's MMA optimizer.

 

Noche UFC DraftKings DFS Mid-Tier Picks

Tommy McMillen ($8,600)

The people's main event is a featherweight prospect showcase between Tommy "Gunz" McMillan and Marwan Rahiki.

In July at Oklahoma City, McMillen was the square side in DFS, which was also the right side.

He set a divisional record for significant strikes in a fight (255) in a third-round (T)KO of Alberto Montes that shattered the slate:

Clearly, his all-action style is a place you can't ignore in DFS unless he's going to lose.

Rahiki is a slick striker with big power (1.94 KD%), but he's been dropped twice in three UFC-affiliated appearances, and his grappling is entirely untested.

Wrestling is the higher-floor, higher-ceiling approach we're looking for when we can find it, and I think the state champion wrestler from Montana might actually deploy it here for the first time as a path of least resistance against "Freaky" Rahiki.

 

Sean King ($8,400)

I didn't know much about Sean King heading into the week, but many won't. That should keep his roster rate in check on DraftKings.

King is in a battle of debuting fighters at featherweight on the prelims against Mexico's Jessie Rojas -- the older brother of divisional contender Raul Rojas Jr.

Between that pedigree and the Mexican flag waving behind him, I expect Rosas will be a pretty popular click, but he's at a huge size disadvantage when he normally fights at 135.

That could be among the reasons that King has surged from a -125 favorite on Monday to -205 on Friday, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

King, a natural 145er, is also an interesting striker at distance with explosive kicks, and he's showcased judo throws and several ground-and-pound finishes on the regional scene.

That fighting style for a potential size bully could produce a mammoth score.

 

Rafa Garcia ($7,700)

It's tough to find underdogs with a clear and obvious path to victory. That's no problem for Rafa Garcia, who my model would put at -113 rather than the +140 he sits at on sportsbooks.

His fight environment might be the obstacle to scoring instead. Garcia faces striker Rongzhu, whose 84% takedown defense is much better than his jiu-jitsu defense.

If a slip or a rare takedown gave him an opportunity on the back, a submission is possible, but don't rule out Garcia winning this fight at distance, either. He's done just that with a combined +35 strike differential in his last two fights over multi-time UFC winners, Alexander Hernandez and Jared Gordon.

Above all, Rongzhu is pretty much unusable in DFS if Garcia -- who has never been stopped at striking range in 11 UFC appearances -- can hold up his patented durability. You might as well save salary.

 

Noche UFC DraftKings Underdog Plays

Tim Elliott ($7,400)

At 39, Tim Elliott's best days are behind him, but you're crazy if you think he doesn't have a path to win this fight.

Edgar Chairez's 47% striking defense has cost him before, and "Awkward" Tim averages 8.02 takedown attempts per 15 minutes while landing an efficient clip (45%). He landed four takedowns in his last fight, but Steve Erceg (67%) provides much more resistance.

The Mexican favorite has real fight-ending tools; Chairez's 1.09 KD% comes with 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes. The latter is a bit more perilous when Elliott has mixed results with a 3-5 UFC record by tapout.

I've got Elliott projected for 3.38 median takedowns. He'll meaningfully score if he can land them with any sort of consistency as expected -- even if Chairez steals the win with a key moment or two.

 

Jose Miguel Delgado ($6,900)

We'll find out if Jose Miguel Delgado is for real in a sink-or-swim opportunity.

Frankly, I'm optimistic about his chances as a +330 underdog if his chin holds. He'll enjoy a four-inch reach advantage, and statistics indicate this fight isn't lopsided at distance. Delgado and Jean Silva are within two percentage points of each other in striking accuracy and defense.

Similarly, Silva (1.20) and Delgado (1.37) don't land many takedowns per 15 minutes, instead focusing on keeping their opponents honest. That helps pay off a "fight stack" angle for Delgado -- even if you believe Silva finds a late finish or wins a decision.

My model has Delgado as a 52.4% favorite in this one. Silva's reputation is sensational, but his setback against Diego Lopes proved he's not bulletproof. Delgado's length and ability to turn the fight with one knee or elbow could make all the difference.

 

Djorden Santos ($6,500)

If there's one thing we can count on Djorden Santos for as the slate's lowest-salaried fighter, it's length. The 29-year-old's average fight time is 14:48 in four UFC appearances.

As you could expect, that comes from an elite ability to take punches. He's absorbed 6.35 significant strikes per minute but hasn't yet been dropped by a foe inside the octagon. Many expect Yousri Belgaroui to change that, but Belgaroui has plenty to prove.

Alex Pereira's training partner has exceptional hype after two lopsided wins, but those fighters are a combined 5-4-1 in the octagon. The kickboxer's 0.94% knockdown rate isn't spectacularly high, either.

At worst, it feels like Santos can hang around here to score fantasy points at a punt salary. Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook agree, assigning -140 odds that this fight begins Round 3.

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