Two-Start Pitcher Streamers: Week 20

August 8, 2021

Starting pitchers to add and stream in Week 20 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Michael Grennell analyzes the top SP streamers to pick up off waivers.

It's amazing how fast this season has flown by. I swear just last month was Opening Day, and yet here we are now just two months away from the end of the 2021 fantasy season. It's time for that last minute push to try and come back and win your league, and two-start streamers are going to be one of the best options you can get to help your team out.

Closing out Week 18's column, there was some disruption among those players thanks to moves at the Trade Deadline, but at the end of the week, Kyle Muller was the winner of that bunch as he went 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA, 1.200 WHIP and 10 strikeouts in 10 innings of work. Meanwhile in Week 19, Chris Flexen is leading the way after allowing two runs with six strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings to earn his 10th win of the season.

And now without further ado, let's look ahead to Week 20.

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Week 20 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered

Zach Thompson, MIA - 31% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ SDP, vs CHC

Miami has been having a good year with their young pitching staff, and Thompson has been one of the highlights for the Marlins. Over the first nine starts of his major league career, Thompson is 2-4 with a 2.53 ERA, 1.102 WHIP and 24.3 percent strikeout rate over 42 2/3 innings of work. He struggled somewhat in his last outing where he allowed three runs over four innings of work against the Mets, but over four starts in the month of July he posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.161 WHIP with an 18.8 percent strikeout rate over 20 2/3 innings pitched.

He'll open up the week with a rematch against the Padres, after allowing three runs over five innings in his last outing against them in July. This week could be a slightly tougher matchup for Thompson though, as the Padres are hitting slightly better at home (.248/.336/.411) than on the road (.246/.320/.412). On top of that, the Padres have been hitting well over their last 10 games, slashing .261/.320/.423 while averaging 4.6 runs per game. If there is one thing in his favor, it's that Thompson has nearly identical numbers on the road (2.65 ERA, 1.059 WHIP) and at home (2.45 ERA, 1.130 WHIP), so he could very well end up with a similar performance to his last time out against San Diego when he faced them at home.

The Cubs should prove to be the better matchup for Thompson in Week 20. Not only are the Cubs hitting worse against right-handed pitching (.221/.300/.389) than against lefties (.246/.324/.416), they are also hitting worse on the road (.218/.290/.364) than at home (.239/.325/.434). Thompson has already faced off against Chicago once this season, and while he pitched just four innings in that outing, he only allowed one unearned run on three walks with seven strikeouts.

That Padres start could be a challenging one for Thompson, but he will have a great matchup going against the Cubs at the end of the week. If Thompson can at the very least put up a repeat performance against the Padres, that outing against the Cubs should pick up the slack in terms of fantasy value. He's probably the top guy to target on this week's list.

Jake Odorizzi, HOU - 30% rostered

Probable Opponents: vs COL, @ LAA

It's been quite the inconsistent year for Odorizzi. He's currently 4-6 with a 4.95 ERA, 1.209 WHIP and 21.4 percent strikeout rate over 63 2/3 innings of work, and while his 4.77 xERA suggests he's been slightly unlucky on the mound, it's not by much. That being said, he has started to pitch a bit better over his last nine outings, where he's gone 3-3 with a 4.04 ERA, 1.158 WHIP and 19.4 percent strikeout rate. It's still not ideal, but it is at least a slight improvement.

He'll open up the week with what will easily be his best matchup, coming at home against the Rockies. For starters, Odorizzi has pitched better at home this year (4.73 ERA, 1.238 WHIP) than on the road (4.11 ERA, 1.189 WHIP). And then the Rockies are not only hitting significantly worse on the road (.212/.285/.331) than at home (.280/.341/.470), they're also hitting significantly worse against right-handed pitching (.240/.308/.390, 23.1 K%) than against lefties (.263/.330/.437, 21.2 K%).

After that outing, he'll head out on the road to face the Angels for the first time since April, in which he left the game with an injury after recording only one out. He'll face a struggling Angels squad that is slashing .216/.288/.326 and average 3.4 runs per game over their last 10 games. While they have been mired in a slump which could benefit Odorizzi, he won't get much help from their batting splits as they are putting up nearly identical numbers against both right-handers and left-handers, and they are also playing significantly better at home (.267/.331/.465) than on the road (.240/.298/.392).

Needless to say Odorizzi is a risky pick this week given his season-long inconsistencies and poor performances. He's probably the guy on this list that's at risk for the biggest meltdown, but this is also probably the best week in terms of matchups that he'll have for the rest of the season. Target Thompson first and foremost, but Odorizzi should be a solid second choice.

Week 20 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered

J.A. Happ, STL - 7% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ PIT, @ KCR

Boy if you thought I was crazy for picking Odorizzi this week based on his season numbers, then you'll think I'm completely mental for choosing Happ. He's 5-6 on the year with a 6.62 ERA, 1.568 WHIP and 17.4 percent strikeout rate. But I'm banking on a turnaround for Happ now that he's with St. Louis, especially after his Cardinals debut this past week in which he allowed two runs on five hits and one walk while striking out four over five innings of work. He'll open up the week against a scuffling Pirates team that is averaging 3.3 runs per game and slashing .206/.288/.298 over their last 10 games. There won't be much benefit to be found in the splits, as Pittsburgh has virtually identical numbers against right-handers and left-handers, and they are hitting better at home this year with a .238/.317/.371 triple-slash line. He'll then face another struggling offense in Kansas City, as they are also averaging 3.3 runs per game over their last 10 games while slashing .206/.256/.384. Happ faced them three times this year with Minnesota, and he'll hope for numbers closer to his first outing against them (5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K) than what he put up his last two times out (9 1/3 IP, 10 ER, 6 K).

The only reason I don't think Happ is at risk of a worse performance than Odorizzi this week is because I like that matchup with Pittsburgh for him. That's not to say that Happ isn't a risky play — especially given his struggles against Kansas City the last two times he faced them — but with both the Pirates and Royals in the midst of slumps right now, this is probably the best opportunity managers will have to use Happ this season.

Alec Mills, CHC - 3% rostered

Probable Opponents: vs MIL, @ MIA

Now you can look at Mills' 4.41 ERA, 1.442 WHIP and 16.4 percent strikeout rate for the year and think that he would not be a good streaming option this week. However if you look at his numbers since joining the Cubs rotation in mid-June, he's posted better numbers with a 3.55 ERA, 1.401 WHIP and 17.9 percent strikeout rate over 45 2/3 innings of work. He'll open up the week against Milwaukee, as they are hot at the plate right now with a .266/.332/.435 triple-slash line and are averaging 5.6 runs per game over their last 10 games. He's faced them three times this year, posting a 3.24 ERA and 0.600 WHIP with just one strikeout over 8 1/3 innings.

This will be his first time facing them since joining the rotation full time, but he'll be at a slight disadvantage with the Brewers hitting better on the road (.237/.322/.398) than at home (.219/.311/.378). If he makes it through relatively unscathed, he should have a solid matchup with the Marlins to close out the week. Miami has been hitting well over their last 10 games (.257/.315/.414, 4.5 runs per game) and they are also hitting better at home (.242/.308/.368) than on the road (.228/.296/.380). But in his last start against Miami, Mills held them scoreless for five innings, allowing six hits with three strikeouts to earn his third win of the year.

I see Mills as an underrated streaming option this week. In fact I think there's a good chance he could end up with the best numbers out of the "under 25 percent rostered" group in this column. The big key will be how he does against Milwaukee. I don't see a ton of strikeout value coming for Mills, but he should be able to put up solid value otherwise, and managers should consider doubling up Mills with any of the other two-start streamers in this column.

Carlos Hernandez, KCR - 2% rostered

Probable Opponents: vs NYY, vs STL

It kills me to recommend Hernandez after sitting in the outfield bleachers on Wednesday where I watched him stymie my White Sox for five innings, but that's back-to-back good performance for Hernandez (albeit both against Chicago), and that makes him worth considering as a deeper format streaming option. He allowed seven runs over 6 2/3 innings in his first two starts of the season against Baltimore and Detroit, but now over his last two trips to the mound he's allowed just one run over 11 innings of work.

He'll open up the week against New York, as they are slashing .245/.332/.372 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over their last 10 games. However most of that offense comes from the last two games of their series with Baltimore which ended in blowouts victories, as the Yankees were slashing .196/.304/.280 over the seven games leading up to the Baltimore blowouts. He'll be helped in this outing by the fact that the Yankees are hitting worse against right-handed pitching this year (.226/.315/.377) than against lefties (.259/.344/.431). Hernandez will then close out the week against a St. Louis squad that is not only hitting worse against right-handers (.234/.303/.385) than against left-handers (.235/.311/.394), but they're also hitting worse on the road (.223/.298/.391) than at home (.246/.312/.382).

We're going off a small body of work with Hernandez as a starter, but it looks like there's enough there on paper that he could put up solid value in deeper formats this week. It's unlikely that he'll put up an impressively dominant performance, but he should more than provide a good boost if his last two starts are to be believed.

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