October 12, 2017

Fantasy football risers and fallers for dynasty leagues. Kyle Richardson looks for players trending up or down in dynasty value for Week 6 of the NFL season.

There is one thing all fantasy football owners do well, and that’s overreact. Some owners do it more than others, but all owners do it. If a player has a great week then it’s buy, buy, buy. If a player has a horrible week then it’s sell, sell, sell. As soon as news broke of Ezekiel Elliott being suspended for six games, owners were looking to get whatever they could. They didn’t wait to hear if there would be an appeal or if the suspension would even be upheld, they just wanted to get whatever they could. We are now entering Week 6 and Elliot is still playing.

Right after a draft is the busiest time for fantasy owners to overreact. Shortly after the NFL draft, Samaje Perine’s value skyrocketed and Rob Kelley’s took a dive. Whether it was redraft or dynasty, owners were taking Perine ahead of Kelley. As Week 1 approached, the coaching staff backed Kelley as he played 33 snaps to Perine’s zero. Perine can’t even out snap Chris Thompson now, who is more of a receiving back then lead back.

Even this past weekend, a simple sentence from Ben Roethlisberger has fantasy owners downplaying Antonio Browns value. There were a lot of conversations during the offseason, centered around Roethlisberger and whether he would decide to retire. Most of those rumblings had calmed down, but after his five interception performance Roethlisberger told reporters “maybe I don’t have it anymore.” Without an apparent heir to the throne, dynasty owners don’t know who will be throwing the ball to their WR1.

Polling The Audience

On Monday, I asked Twitter to tell me their thoughts on Brown after the comments and what they are doing with him:

After Big Bens performance and comments yesterday, what are you doing with Antonio Brown in Dyno? Info may be used for upcoming article.

— Kyle Richardson (@krich1532) October 9, 2017

I’m glad to see that 50% of owners vote to hold onto Brown, because that’s what you should be doing. Only 18% want to buy and 32% want to sell? Not only has Brown been the top fantasy receiver the past three years, but on a day where Roethlisberger threw five interceptions, Brown still amassed 157 yards on 10 receptions. One owner is ready to get out now while Brown still have value:

Get rid of him like he's hot garbage while he's still got tons of value

— Steven Stull (@srstulljr) October 10, 2017

Another owner displays the confidence in Brown regardless of Roethlisberger’s performance:

He still balled out. Big Ben isn’t the same but he can still get Antonio the ball. Bryant on ther hand.........

— DynastyGuruFF (@DynastyGuruFF) October 9, 2017

As a dynasty fantasy football owner, you can’t overreact on a game-by-game basis. You have to look at the big picture with every player you hold onto, trade for or grab off the waiver wire. If you overreact to a performance in a redraft league, oh well, you can still grab your guy again next year. In a dynasty league though, it can haunt you for years. Every time you play the owner who has the player you decided to sell off, the player will have a huge day. It’s a known fact that happens to almost everyone. Okay, maybe it just happens to me. It’s always okay to float a player’s name in trade talks, especially in this situation. If you own Brown, let your league know he is available for trade. Don’t say why or go into specifics, just let everyone know you are taking offers for Brown. Another owner could surprise you and offer up a deal you can’t pass on. Everyone has a price on their players, some are just more expensive than usual. As Albert Ellis said “Strong feelings are fine; it’s overreactions that mess us up.” So just remember, don’t overreact and you won’t mess up. Seems like pretty solid advice for winning a fantasy football championship.

#TrendingUp

Doug Martin (RB, TB)

Right before Doug Martin’s suspension ended, there were some websites reporting he may be released so the Buccaneers could get out from his enormous extension. I thought that was one of the most ridiculous things I had heard all season. I had a few followers reach out and ask if I thought the rumors were true and what they should do. I told them the same thing I led this article with, don’t overreact to a random rumor that seemingly surfaced out of nowhere. The Bucs had already released their fifth round draft pick Jeremy McNichols and the coaching staff had voiced opinions in the past that Jacquizz Rodgers was only a backup and not a featured back. So, if the Bucs decided to release Martin, who exactly was going to carry the load? Martin owners were a bit worried after Rodgers and Charles Sims played the first couple of series last Thursday against the Patriots, but it was smooth sailing for Martin after he entered the game for the third series and immediately went to work. Martin showed a burst of speed hitting open holes, ability to break tackles and looked strong in his return to the field. Martin was tackles for a loss on one of 13 carries and averaged almost six yards per carry on boxes of eight or more defenders. It was also encouraging to see the Bucs pound the football at the goal line with Martin. I am going to assume Martin was on a snap count because he disappeared towards the end of the game. Try to temper your expectations a little as he will have some tough matchups the rest of the season playing Carolina twice, Buffalo and Detroit who all rank in the top 10 of rush defense. In a dynasty league though, I would still be looking to add him for short and long term value. I think this offense will only continue to get better moving forward.

Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ)

Jermaine Kearse will continue to be Josh McCown’s go to receiver but Robby Anderson will continue to be his big play receiver. Anderson is currently averaging 15.7 yards per reception, 5.7 more yards per reception than Kearse. He had a quiet Week 5 against the Browns, but he had six receptions for 154 yards combined in the two prior weeks. I don’t see Anderson becoming a PPR beast or being a WR1, but I could see some comparisons with Martavis Bryant or DeSean Jackson in the coming years. A fast receiver able to take the top off the defense and capable of big plays each week. He will always have a boom or bust side to him. Heading into the season, Anderson had some legal issues that capped his value and there was a worry that McCown couldn’t get him the ball. He’s almost certain to pass his total yards and receptions from 2016. The Jets have surprised some of us this season by playing much better than anticipated. We shouldn’t be fooled though as the Jets will still be playing from behind this season. His next matchup with the Patriots should be a great one, but watch for the end of the season. If you plan on relying on Anderson for the playoffs, you’ll have to deal with the Broncos and Chargers two of three weeks. Anderson is more of a buy for next year candidate for those owners who are starting to pack it in. If you can grab him as a toss in during trade negotiations, you could get some great value later.

#TrendingDown

Sammy Watkins (WR, LAR)

I was critical of Sammy Watkins even before the season started. I didn’t see a great year coming in Buffalo, but then he was traded to the Rams. I didn’t like his value much more in L.A. because of Jared Goff, but Goff has proved to be a reliable quarterback this year. So where does that leave us with Watkins? If you take away his Week 3 performance against San Francisco where he hauled in six catches for 106 yards and two touchdowns, his numbers are downright awful. In his other four matchups this season, Watkins is averaging two catches a game for 26.25 yards and no touchdowns. Both Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are averaging more yards in those four games. Watkins is a special athlete, but at what point will he become a special football player. With the exception of his rookie season, Watkins has either been injured or ineffective. The main reason he is #TrendingDown has to do with his price tag. Owners are still expecting the return of a top 15 receiver. While he may be able to offer that in the future, you cannot move future assets of that nature for potential upside. If you can catch the Watkins owner at the right time, and he doesn’t cost much, then you may want to take a shot. If you own Watkins, hold tight and hope he can get things going… then sell high.

Antonio Gates (TE, LAC)

Antonio Gates continues to see production in a Chargers offense that has an overflow of talent. Reports say that Mike Williams will be due back any game now. Between him, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Melvin Gordon and of course, Hunter Henry, someone will see their production start to dwindle. Henry hasn’t had the same kind of stats as Gates this year, but every week he continues to see more important snaps. As the season wears on, the 37-year-old Gates will probably start to wear down. If that happens, Henry will start to be incorporated even more. If Henry is the future, then the Chargers will want to get him valuable playing time this year. It’s not like Gates has set the world on fire this year; the most receptions he has had in one game is three and only one touchdown. Gates' value this year really relied on how many touchdowns he could score and since he hasn’t been scoring touchdowns, it’s time to move on. If you have him in a dynasty format, you will need a better backup. He will be less valuable as the season wears on, then at some point you won’t have a tight end to start. If you can pair him with Henry, you will have your bases covered the rest of the year.

More 2017 Dynasty League Strategy