The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 13

June 21, 2021

Jamie Steed's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 13 of the fantasy season.

Welcome back to the Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers could consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. Although not a "special edition", this week we will focus solely on hitters. With MLB deciding to enforce the rules regarding sticky substances on the baseballs as of Monday, the extent of the impact that will have on pitchers remains to be seen so we'll need to start considering that in our decision making.

As always, if there's anyone you specifically want to know whether to drop or hold who isn't included in the article, mention them on the Reddit thread or give me a shout on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and they might be featured the following week. This isn't a "hard and fast" list of definite players to drop, but hopefully, it will act as a tool to help you with your roster decisions.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone for a random player who is on the only hot streak he'll ever have in his career. We're closing in on the midway point of the season so we have decent sample sizes on most players to base our decisions on. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing

Yermin Mercedes - UTIL, Chicago White Sox - 58% rostered

Mercedes has been one of the best stories in baseball this year. He started his 2021 by going 8-for-8 and his name was on everyone's lips again after annoying Tony La Russa by taking Willians Astudillo deep in a blowout win on May 17. At that time, Mercedes had a .364/.410/.574 line and that was his sixth homer in 36 games. Since being admonished by his manager, Mercedes is hitting .151/.223/.194 with just one homer in 26 games. Mercedes' line on the year is now .270/.325/.407 following last night, his fourth consecutive 0-for-4 game this week. Given his career minor league line was .302/.366/.491 with 83 homers in 617 games before his call-up, I think Mercedes' numbers will pick up but he's in danger of losing playing-time if that doesn't happen soon.

Eloy Jimenez (pectoral) is potentially on his way back and could return in late July/early August. Although plenty could happen between now and then, Mercedes could find himself out in the cold when Jimenez returns. Everyone knew Mercedes' numbers would fall off after his incredible start and if he started slowly and then went on the run he did to start the season, Mercedes would be the most added player rather than seeing his rostered rate drop.

Verdict - Someone hitting .275 with seven homers and 34 RBI isn't someone I'd condone dropping. The issue here is Mercedes is in danger of losing playing time and without catcher eligibility in fantasy, he loses a lot of value. In shallow leagues where he is only a DH on your rosters, I would consider him droppable if you need that roster spot to help cover injuries, etc. He's still someone I'd roster in deeper leagues and in all leagues where he has catcher eligibility.

Ian Happ - 2B/3B/OF, Chicago Cubs - 52% rostered

Happ has failed to build on the success of last season when he hit .258/.361/.505 with 12 homers in 57 games. Through 58 games this year, Happ is hitting just .181/.297/.335 with eight homers. That's also considerably down from his career numbers coming into this season (.248/.344/.481). While he has a solid 12.7% walk rate that ranks in the 85th percentile this year, his strikeouts continue to be a major problem. His 29.4% strikeout rate this year ranks in the 11th percentile. It was his ability to get on base that saw Happ start the year as the Cubs' leadoff hitter, but after hitting the IL on May 2, he hasn't managed to get that role back.

Given that Happ was hitting .167/.307/.250 pre-injury and .192/.288/.404 since his return, the only discernible difference has been the power (six of his eight homers have come following his IL stint) and the injury was a rib contusion which doesn't appear to be causing further issues. Moving down the order will limit the counting stats Happ can accumulate and his 22 runs and 18 RBI means he's on pace to not reach 50 of either. He does have better expected stats, but his xBA of .215 is still only in the ninth percentile and his xwOBA of .315 (actual wOBA is .290) is in the 35th percentile.

Verdict - Happ has been bad and despite good hard-hit numbers, they haven't translated to output and his expected numbers still paint a picture of a well below-average hitter. In OBP leagues, he can still provide some value but even the multi-position eligibility he provides doesn't outweigh the negatives and there's likely a better option on waivers in all leagues.

Colin Moran - 1B/2B/3B, Pittsburgh Pirates - 21% rostered

A back injury has limited Moran to just 40 games so far this season, but he's put up solid numbers when he has been healthy. He's hit four homers, scored 11 runs, has 21 RBI and even recorded his first MLB stolen base while putting up a .286/.351/.436 slash line on the year. Although the Pirates have been as bad as many predicted this preseason, Moran has been hitting cleanup and has a 162-game pace of driving in 83 runs which would be a career-high. His xBA of .275 does suggest some regression but is still in the 77th percentile and his xSLG (.426) and xwOBA (.333) are in the 48th and 55th percentile respectively, so he's better than a league-average hitter.

Moran's 27.8% K% this year is a career-high, but we don't know if that's just due to a different approach, something which will even itself out over the season or if it is due to what pitchers are using. In his nine games since returning from injury, Moran has a .257 average having started seven of those games. Given his .200/.294/.267 line against left-handed pitching (LHP) this year (.320/.373/.500 versus RHP), it wouldn't come as a surprise to see him sit against LHP more often. His career line against LHP is .230/.281/.345 and .282/.341/.447 versus RHP, so it stands to reason that Moran would be used in a platoon.

Verdict - Moran has been mentioned for inclusion specifically in deeper leagues. In shallow leagues, the lack of production around him, limited power and next to no speed means he can stay on waivers. In deep leagues, while the positional flexibility Moran offers is nice, he's only rosterable in leagues that have daily roster moves due to his usage and platoon splits.

Hold For Now

Wil Myers - 1B/OF, San Diego Padres - 78% rostered

Myers came into this season as a power/speed combo hitter who also had a .288 batting average last year, which was his highest since his debut year in 2013 and considerably better than his career .251 average up to that point. But it seems as though it was a 'short-season anomaly' as he's back hitting .254/.327/.421 this year. Myers also has just eight homers and four steals on the year which is a 162-game pace of 18 homers and nine stolen bases. Similarly concerning is the Padres offense failing to live up to expectations. Their 331 runs scored (73 games) is 10th in MLB and while that's respectable, it's a far cry from being third in that category like they were last year. That has helped limit Myers to just 21 runs and 25 RBI.

My concerns about Myers are his underlying numbers, which actually suggest regression is more likely than improvements and his hard-hit numbers are also down on recent years. His four steals have come from eight attempts so any green light on the bases may be turning red. Three of those steals came in one game, back on April 24 and he's 0-for-3 in stolen base attempts since then. For now, he's an everyday player and the Padres could go on a tear the rest of the season. But Myers is under a watchful eye and if those expected numbers do materialize, he could find himself on more waiver wires than rosters.

Kyle Seager - 3B, Seattle Mariners - 58% rostered

Seager comes into Sunday hitting .220/.282/.429 on the season. He's hit 13 homers, which is sixth-most among third baseman, has 28 runs and 42 RBI (in 72 games). He's also sixth in RBI among third baseman and as of Saturday, had more than Justin Turner, Manny Machado and Alex Bregman. Not bad for someone who had an ADP of ~276 in the preseason. The issue fantasy managers have about Seager is the recent production. He started the season hitting .250/.307/.471 in April (with four homers and 20 RBI). His production then fell off in May, hitting just .184/.270/.398 in the month, although he did hit six homers but tallied just 12 RBI. That batting average has crept up in June, with a.225/.263/.408 line. Seager has hit three homers in June with 10 RBI.

What has been consistent for the Seattle third baseman is his power and he is on course to hit 30 homers by season's end, something he's only achieved once back in 2016. Understandably for Seager's fantasy managers, his batting average is a letdown but given he's had a .237 average in the previous four years, it's not completely fallen off a cliff and is more in gradual decline. And if we look at his underlying numbers, Seager actually has a .239 expected batting average (xBA) so is basically what he's been since 2017. He's also got a better xwOBA (.337) than his actual wOBA (.301). The Mariners offense has been pretty decent, scoring 294 runs this year (18th in MLB) and Seager hitting in the heart of the lineup will continue to see him accumulate counting stats. He's still worthy of being on rosters, especially teams in need of the power who can take the hit on their batting average.

Ty France - 1B/2B/3B, Seattle Mariners - 35% rostered

France emerged as one of the most popular waiver wire adds in the opening weeks of the season, after putting up a .325/.412/.530 line with three homers in the opening four weeks of the season. Then between April 27 and June 11, France hit just .184/.290/.237 and failed to hit a homer in that period. That streak saw his roster rate drop significantly but he appears to be rewarding fantasy managers who diamond hands-ed him as he enters Sunday hitting .433/.471/.767 over his last eight games (with two homers).

He now sports a respectable .269/.359/.414 line on the season with five homers, 32 runs and 27 RBI in 63 games. That's a 162-game pace of 13 homers, 82 runs and 69 RBI, which for a player with an average ADP of ~280, is pretty good. The power is a bit disappointing, especially after hitting 34 homers in 145 games across Triple-A and the Majors in 2019 but France is making up for it with the counting stats while having a better-than-league average batting average. Just like Seager, France has been a fixture in the heart of the Mariners lineup and figures to remain there providing he keeps his numbers around where they have been so far. He's nothing flashy but his multi-position eligibility makes him a perfect fill-in for your rosters, especially in deeper leagues.

On the Hot Seat

Eric Hosmer - 1B, San Diego Padres - 73% rostered

Like his Padres teammate Myers, Hosmer has struggled so far this year with a .248/.305/.357 line and just six homers in 64 games. He does have four steals, 35 RBI and 21 runs too and while his numbers are similar to Myers, his average ADP (~149) was 21 spots later than Myers (~128). Unlike Myers, Hosmer's expected stats and underlying numbers present a reason for optimism moving forward.

It's easy to get caught up in the hard-hit and exit velocity numbers, but they need greater context. Hitting the ball 100 MPH every time you make contact is great, but if you only make contact 10% of the time and always hit the ball into the ground five feet in front of you, you likely won't last long in the Majors. But what is intriguing are Hosmer's expected stats, all of which are markedly better than his actual stats.

While the xSLG and xwOBA are only marginally better than league average, the .285 xBA is in the 86th percentile. Hosmer has also lowered his K% rate for the second straight year and the 14.7% K% he currently sports would be his best since 2013. So there is plenty of reason for optimism with Hosmer. Given he hit 40 homers across his first two seasons in San Diego, hoping last year's nine home runs in 38 games would turn into 30+ this year was overly expectant. Thinking he could hit 20 homers this year was reasonable and without a power surge in the second half, that looks unlikely at this point.

As mentioned, the Padres offense hasn't quite lived up to the hype but I remember a few weeks ago having the same questions about Tommy Pham when he had a sub-.200 batting average. He had a similar Statcast profile with expected numbers far greater than his actual stats. Since mid-May, Pham is hitting .294/.425/.523 with six homers and eight steals. I don't think Hosmer will quite replicate that but I do foresee improvement in Hosmer's output moving forward and even if he manages to only hit 15 homers and steal 10 bases this year, he should still finish with 60+ runs and 80+ RBI as well. That will keep Hosmer as a rosterable corner infielder at worst in any league.

The Reddit Requests

As always, here some of the most commonly mentioned players from last week's Reddit thread.

Brandon Lowe - 1B/2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays - 87% rostered

It might be surprising that someone with a .200 batting average is rostered in as many leagues as Lowe. Despite the lowly average (pun intended), Lowe hit his 13th homer last night (a pinch-hit, game-tying solo shot in the ninth inning). He has 36 runs and 32 RBI on the year. He's also chipped in with four steals so far. Only five second baseman have hit more homers than Lowe this year and he ranks 10th in RBI at the position. In truth, it's likely his second base eligibility is keeping Lowe's roster rate as high as it is. The problem for Lowe is his inability to hit LHP, with a .080/.157/.200 line against lefties this year. For now, Lowe is still playing more than he sits against LHP but for fantasy purposes, you don't really want to start him against southpaws. I've mentioned this before, but if you're in shallower leagues with weekly roster moves, I'm fine moving on from Lowe as trying to work out when it's best to sit him on any given week can be more trouble than it's worth. Outside of that, he still does more than enough damage against RHP and the Rays' offense will continue to keep Lowe relevant across all counting stats.

Eddie Rosario - OF, Cleveland Indians - 78% rostered

Rosario got off to his traditionally slow start, hitting just .225/.271/348 in the first month of the season (career .233/.270/.421 line in April). Rosario's May wasn't much better with a .239/.300/.348 line, but he's finally starting to turn things around in June, hitting .321/.350/.446 this month. The extended slow start could be attributed to being on a new team or he was an early victim of the new ball and sticky stuff. Regardless of what caused it, Rosario has a solid track record having entered the year with a .277/.310/.478 career slash line and a 162-game pace of 28 homers and nine steals. The fact he already has seven stolen bases on the year is also encouraging, albeit there was a five-week gap between his fifth and sixth steals. If he does continue to improve as the calendar progresses, a 20 homer/15 stolen base season is on the cards. I'd be keeping Rosario on my team and would look to add him if he was dropped to waivers already.

Josh Donaldson - 3B, Minnesota Twins - 75% rostered

With Nelson Cruz acting as the Twins everyday DH, Donaldson has had to be an everyday third baseman. At age 35, that's easier said than done and Donaldson is currently nursing a minor calf injury. The Twins do expect him to avoid the IL for a second time this season. If he does need an IL stint, you can just put him on your IL and assess things when he's back. If he does avoid the IL, Donaldson still isn't someone I'd be dropping. He's hitting a respectable .241/.338/.455 and while that's down on his career numbers, it's not disastrous. Donaldson has 10 homers on the year (55 games) which is a 162-game pace of 30; a bit down but that regression is to be expected given his age and recent injury issues. Donaldson has dropped his K% (12.9%) to its lowest mark since 2015, but what's most interesting ares his expected stats, all of which are in the top-20th percentile. He has an xBA of .278 (82nd percentile), xSLG of .551 (92nd percentile) and xwOBA of .388 (91st percentile). At this stage of his career, you will need to accept the injuries but if he stays healthy enough to play even 120 games this season, he should be at least a worthwhile corner infielder in all leagues.

Gio Urshela - 3B/SS, New York Yankees - 71% rostered

Urshela was requested for inclusion due to being "boring". And while I agree with the sentiment in fantasy, that's no reason to avoid rostering someone. Especially when that "boring" player has a .272 average and nine homers in 62 games. The Yankees offense has been bad for most of the season, but Urshela has still managed to score 24 runs and tally 31 RBI. That's largely due to him hitting between fourth and sixth in the lineup for most of the season, having been one of the Yankees' most consistent hitters this year and since he debuted in the Bronx in 2019. In that debut season for the Yankees, Urshela hit 21 homers with 73 runs and 74 RBI. He also hit .314 that year and while that is a stretch, the other numbers will likely resemble what Urshela has at the end of this year, which makes him rosterable in any league. Getting shortstop eligibility in many formats is also a nice bonus, but not something which helps much except in deeper leagues.

Garrett Hampson - 2B/SS/OF, Colorado Rockies - 63% rostered

Hampson is hitting .251 with six homers and 12 steals over 68 games this year. He's also scored 36 runs and driven in 18. What is most remarkable about Hampson is, according to Statcast, he has an expected home run (xHR) total of 11.9, meaning he's been incredibly unlucky when it comes to deep flyballs not clearing the fences. Only teammate Trevor Story has a bigger difference between xHR (12.1) and actual HR (5). Given he also ranks in the 99th percentile for sprint speed, with more luck, Hampson could be staring at a 25/25 season this year. The call-up and productivity of Brendan Rodgers has limited Hampson's playing time a bit and he didn't feature again last night (he's only started four of the last nine games). Seeing as he's hitting .340/.365/.520 in June, he should still see plenty of time in the outfield if the Rockies work out how best to use their players (something they haven't demonstrated much of in recent times). Hampson's .232 xBA does suggest regression is possible but playing at Coors Field also mitigates that and he looks likely to continue providing speed and power for the remainder of the season. He's someone who should be rostered more by teams in need of steals. If the playing time continues to trend this way, Hampson can start finding his way on to fantasy waivers, but Story could be traded at any time which should open up a spot for Hampson again. Any outfield injury would also free up a regular spot but hoping for the Rockies to utilize their players better is becoming a fruitless task.

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