RADIO
As the last major of the 2024 season ascends on its final day, the outcome for it is anyone's guess as Billy Horschel holds a one-stroke lead (-4) over a cluster of five guys behind him including the third-ranked golfer in the world, Xander Schauffele and one of Europe's most beloved players, Justin Rose. This championship is far from over with no clear picture of who can keep the bogey runs off the scorecard which has plagued much of the field. With both wind and rain in the mix, it's easy for things to get sideways in a hurry.
Getting it in play off the tee is the only thing that has concretely mattered over the first three days. Sure, guys will need other parts of their game to contribute to getting the ball in the hole, but of everyone currently under par, there is only one outside the top 20 in strokes gained off the tee, which can't be said about any other strokes gained metric. Fairways are just hard to find here. Bounces are unpredictable, and pot bunkers play two to four yards wider than their actual circumference due to feeder slopes that tend to suck in slightly misplaced shots. The bright side is that it makes for exciting viewing from my couch with my morning coffee. Gosh, I love The Open.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. The usual strategy is finding guys who played well the previous day(s), particularly the players who have shown strong ability with their irons. However, it's also important to make roster decisions that give you ownership and leverage over other players in your contest. This is usually done by taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
There shouldn't be much separation between early and late play since the wind will play a similar role throughout the day, as it has all week. We were treated with how well the world's best can play in rainy conditions in round three, so a steady sprinkle shouldn't deter you from picking guys higher on the leaderboard. No amount of precipitation seems to be enough to soften the playing surfaces at Royal Troon either and by now, players should know what they're getting from the course: wirey fescue, massively firm bounces, and slow greens.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point. Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Scottie Scheffler has done what is needed at a major to give yourself a chance on Sunday; hang around. Yes, he's the best player in the world and the board has him ranked at the top because of it, but, he is still unproven on this style of golf course. However, the attributes of playing the sport in this part of the world favor him perhaps more than anyone else at the top, and it doesn't have anything to do with his game. Because if this year has shown us anything, it has shown us that Scheffler takes punches better than anyone else in professional golf. And nothing dishes out punches like true links golf. It's also mind-boggling that he leads the field in strokes gained tee to green (+3.92) and hasn't shot anything better than -1 under.
238 yards into the wind 👀
Scottie Scheffler delivers a beauty with a 3-wood at the 17th @TheOpen.
📺 Watch live now: @NBC pic.twitter.com/NfnpO0MQCr
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 20, 2024
Other Options: Shane Lowery
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Corey Conners had things going well coming into the third round, but a score of +9, 80 completely dismantled his tournament thanks to a triple bogey on his seventh hole that started a run of bogeys that culminated with a double bogey on the 1oth hole. It was an utter collapse that should be steadied for the final day given how well he had played in the previous two rounds. Even with today's blunder, Conners is still ranked 17th in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.17), and with being inside the top 40 on the PGA Tour in final-round scoring average (69.18), he should turn things around tomorrow. However, I would avoid this range entirely if possible.
Other Options: Don't get trapped by shiny names.
$8,000+
Favorite Play: To be fair, my outlook on Justin Rose coming into the week was putrid. His play coming in was nothing to be excited about or pointed to this level of success, especially at the most unpredictable championship in professional golf. However, the record shows that when he manages to get into the mix, Rosey has a way of staying relevant all the way through. And nothing can argue with the product he's displayed over the first three days; ranking fifth in the field in strokes gained tee to green (+2.92) and 13th in strokes gained off the tee (+1.07).
Other Options: Billy Horschel, Matt Fitzpatrick
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Even with a bumpy second round, Russell Henley finds himself one back of the lead and is hitting the ball perhaps better than anyone overall in the championship, leading the field in greens in regulation (70.4%), is third in strokes gained off the tee (+1.29) and fifth in strokes gained on approach (+1.87). It is still unnerving to have him on your card given the lack of evidence to suggest he's ready for this, but, the good thing is that almost everyone around him is as unproven in this position as he is.
Russell Henley with some SPIN on the ball on the slick Postage Stamp 8th green. 😳🌀
📺: NBC & @peacock | #TheOpen pic.twitter.com/eV2vGtwT5P
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) July 20, 2024
Other Options: Matthew Jordan, Sam Burns, John Catlin, Matthieu Pavon
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Laurie Canter is having a nice tournament, especially for a guy mostly stuck in the slog of DP World Tour players after giving LIV a try in the early days of the startup league. His bread and butter this week has been getting it in position from the tee, as he ranks second in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.67). The play with the irons has to be improved for a big push on Sunday, which is not a tall task considering he's the 15th-ranked player on the DP World Tour in strokes gained on approach (+0.70).
Other Options: Brendon Todd, Byeong Hun An
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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