RADIO
Justin Carter reviews the fantasy football performance of rookies at each offensive position (QB, RB, WR, TE) and highlights the biggest surprises, breakout, busts, and some interesting trends.
The part of the fantasy football season that matters to the vast majority of us is now over. Congrats on your titles, or on your successful dynasty tank job, or on making the playoffs despite drafting Christian McCaffrey first overall.
This is the time to look back and reflect on things, to try to make sense of what just happened.
It's also the time to say "I wonder how we collectively did at predicting rookies and what that might mean for the future," which is what we'll be talking about today. (All rankings based on PPR)
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Rookie Quarterback Review
Here are our site's full preseason dynasty rankings for rookie quarterbacks in redraft:
I post this whole thing because it highlights something that seems to be true every year: after the clear starter -- Joe Burrow -- and the guys we knew would get a shot at some point --Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert -- and the guy who was an early-enough pick to assume he might see the field -- Jalen Hurts -- the rest of this list is just guys who didn't play NFL football this year except for the one random dude -- Jake Luton -- who got some unexpected starts.
There were three other starts by rookie QBs who aren't on this list, with seventh-rounder Ben DiNucci, UDFA Brett Rypien, and former XFL star P.J. Walker all getting one start.
Anyway, our top rookie QB and our QB9 entering the season was Joe Burrow. Burrow ended up tearing an ACL in Week 11, but ended up as the QB16 in points per game of guys who played at least nine games. I think he would have improved on that in the back half of the season had he been healthy, and I'm still high on Burrow going forward. Dynasty QB9 still feels pretty accurate.
As for Tua Tagovailoa, our dynasty ranking on him feels a little high after seeing his rookie season, though our re-draft ranking for him as QB36 made sense, as it reflected the fact he would open the season behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tua is currently the overall QB34, with his 14.17 fantasy points per game ranking ahead of guys like Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold. Maybe I'm not as high on him going forward as I might have been before this season, but Tua looks like he can be a solid QB2 fantasy play going forward.
The biggest miss of all was Herbert. Our dynasty QB20 and overall QB35, no one expected a team doctor to puncture Tyrod Taylor's lung and push Herbert into the starting role all the way back in Week 2, and no one expected him to be so good so quickly. While he threw just two touchdowns across his first two starts, Week 4 against Tampa saw Herbert really start to shine. He's the overall QB9 right now and is a top-10 dynasty play going forward.
Rookie Running Back Review
Looking back on our redraft running back rankings, the highest-ranked rookie we had in PPR was Clyde Edwards-Helaire at RB18. We had him as an early fourth-round pick in those initial rankings, though his ADP rose dramatically as we approached drafts with the opt-out of Damien Williams.
Now, Edwards-Helaire is currently the RB18 in full PPR. He played 13 games, missing two (and the upcoming Week 17) with injuries.
CEH definitely didn't play to the level that many expected he would. He had a pair of 100-yard rushing games, but disappeared in the passing game many times and had just five touchdowns on the year. So much for being the missing link in this explosive offense, though a healthy Edwards-Helaire will get another shot next year and should be viewed as an RB2. But the fact that four rookie running backs averaged more PPR points per game than him is a definite reason for concern.
The biggest surprise among rookies has been James Robinson, who is the RB4 right now. While an injury forced him to miss the fantasy championships and may have cost some (me!) a title, his unexpected production all year made him the regular season fantasy MVP, in my opinion. Robinson was aided by an insane positional attempt rate:
Only six running backs had even half of their team's running back carries over the first 14 weeks. Robinson had 95.62 percent for Jacksonville. I mean...how??? How did an undrafted rookie get that many touches??? Considering Dare Ogunbowale played in Robinson's place this week and had 87.5 percent of the RB carries, part of it might be that the offensive system in Jacksonville seems to funnel touches to a single back, but Robinson also was 16th in yards created per touch and third in evaded tackles. He's not just a guy who gets a lot of touches: he's a good back who should be viewed as an RB2 next year unless Jacksonville makes a move for a running back.
The other backs to outperform Edwards-Helaire in PPR points per game were Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, and D'Andre Swift.
Taylor really came on strong late, with five touchdown runs in the last three games. There were concerns he wasn't dynamic enough for the NFL, but he seems to have quieted those doubters and I think will open 2021 as my top-ranked running back from this class in re-draft.
We could go on forever recapping this running back group, so let's just jot down some quick thoughts on the other five backs with at least 100 carries:
- Antonio Gibson leads the rookie backs in touchdowns, but long term, I've got some concerns about the fact that J.D. McKissic seemed to outplay him at times. Although, Gibson's 4.77 yards per carry are a nice number.
- D'Andre Swift looks like he might finally be giving the Lions a true top running back. Has played just 12 games, but has been involved in the run and pass games.
- J.K. Dobbins came on strong near the end, eventually pushing the Ravens to make Mark Ingram II a healthy scratch and pave the way for Dobbins to capture the lead back job. Someone I really have my eye on next season.
- Cam Akers just didn't exist in the receiving game as he caught just seven passes, but he should open next season as a low-end RB2 option.
- Joshua Kelley had 111 carries? Really? His 3.19 yards per carry were over a yard less than any of the seven rookie backs who had more carries. Yikes.
Rookie Wide Receiver Review
Remember when the Las Vegas Raiders drafted Henry Ruggs III as the first receiver off the board in this year's draft?
Well, Ruggs finished the year as the WR91 in PPR. 12 rookie wide receivers ended up with more PPR points than Ruggs. We had Ruggs rated at WR51 coming into this season, and even factoring in that he missed three games, that was a miss. The problem was Ruggs may have been third in average target distance, but the field-stretching rookie only had 13 deep targets and only 13.4 percent of Vegas's targets. So even though he was sixth in yards per target and had the best target separation in the league, his lack of targets and his 69th-place rating in target accuracy doomed him. Maybe the Raiders and Derek Carr weren't a good fit for his skillset.
Two rookie wide receivers have topped 200 points in PPR: Justin Jefferson (251.9) and CeeDee Lamb (208.1). Neither should be a surprise. We knew coming into this year that the Vikings and Kirk Cousins have a system that supports two high-end wide receivers, and with Stefon Diggs gone, Jefferson was the natural pick to take up that role. He might have blown up more than expected, but him being a top-two rookie receiver was always a realistic and likely outcome.
CeeDee Lamb's chances took a big blow when Dak Prescott was injured because it went this pass-happy offense was suddenly rudderless, but Lamb's talent helped him maintain a key role on the Cowboys, as he had 69 catches for 892 yards and five touchdowns.
Let's just look at some quick thoughts on other rookies:
- Tee Higgins was third in points! It helped that A.J. Green was largely ineffective. He should be a great fantasy play going forward.
- Chase Claypool -- our WR86 in preseason -- ends up as WR25, just one spot behind Higgins. The Steelers offense was better than expected for a large part of the season, and that coupled with run-game struggles opened up chances for Claypool to post big numbers. But his place moving forward is shaky, as his catches are down over the past month due to Ben Roethlisberger's struggles.
- Brandon Aiyuk played 12 games. He was second among rookie receivers in fantasy points per game. Will he have the same kind of role if Deebo Samuel is healthy next year, though?
- Jerry Jeudy played 15 games and was the rookie WR8 and overall WR53. He has 0.2 fantasy points fewer than Zach Pascal. Although, quarterback issues -- Brett Rypien and Kendall Hinton started games for Denver -- hurt him. Still, Jeudy just didn't live up to expectations. I'm still high on him, but a disappointing start.
- A couple of guys who missed time with injury finished top 12 among rookies in points per game: Jalen Reagor (ninth) and Denzel Mims (12th).
- In terms of real disappointments, Van Jefferson had 15 catches for 170 yards. I thought he had sleeper appeal this year, but the targets I thought he might get ended up going to Josh Reynolds, who was not a rookie.
Rookie Tight End Review
Uhh, do we have to?
Harrison Bryant led all rookie tight ends in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, but those numbers weren't even that good: 24 receptions on 38 targets for 238 yards and three touchdowns, with two of those touchdowns coming in one game against that Bengals. That game was definitely the one time all year you started a rookie tight end and thought "oh, yeah, this was a good decision."
In our pre-draft ratings, we had Bryant at TE43. he finished at TE37, so we were close! Bryant has to contend with Austin Hooper going forward, though.
Of course, we had Cole Kmet, Devin Asiasi, and Adam Trautman all ranked ahead of Bryant. And those guys...well...
Kmet ended up second in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns, with 21 receptions on 36 targets for 202 yards and two scores. He had a couple of nice games and has been on the field for over 70 percent of snaps for the past six games, but Jimmy Graham has been the primary tight end target for the Bears. Considering Graham is older, Kmet should get a shot to lead this unit, but I don't know if I feel particularly good about him.
Asiasi does not have a reception this season. Trautman has 14 for 166 yards and a touchdown.
The only other rookie tight end with more than one touchdown is Donald Parham, who wasn't drafted this year. The XFL veteran has flashed some potential but doesn't seem like a long-term option for an NFL team.
The overall conclusion about rookie tight ends: they weren't very good! This was known as a weak tight end class, and it looks like that was correct.
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