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Edward Sutelan looks back at his bold predictions for the 2016 fantasy baseball season
Before this season, I made a couple of bold predictions about the upcoming season. There were some hits . . . and then there were some misses. Overall, I feel that people who read my article seeking fantasy advice were probably not too let down by my predictions (unless you bought into A.J. Reed). I look forward to doing this again next year as well when I pick my Reds to finally win the World Series (how's that for a bold prediction).
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Grading the Predictions
1. Dansby Swanson is the Braves’ starting shortstop by August 3
Many doubted that it would happen, but Swanson was promoted and asked to take over as the starting shortstop of the Atlanta Braves. The reasoning for my prediction was that he would tear up the minors (he was just sort of meh in the minors) and that Erick Aybar would be traded at the deadline. Unfortunately for me and my prediction, Swanson did not start until August 17, exactly two weeks after my prediction. I was right in the sense that it did happen and being off by a mere 14 days is all right in my book. Grade: B
2. Cody Allen finishes the year with the most saves
If you recall, this was a two part prediction. The first part was that Cody Allen would finish the season with the most saves in baseball. That could not quite have been further from the truth. Unfortunately, Allen struggled early in the season and Indians as a team finished in the bottom ten in baseball in save opportunities despite being one of the better teams in baseball. So this is definitely worthy of an F. Grade: F
The second part was that the Indians would win the World Series. Of course, as of this publication, the playoffs have only just begun so it is still tough to tell, but the Indians had a great season and have a chance to win their first title since 1948. But being that I can’t speculate on that just yet, I am really going to have to go back to my other prediction for the verdict. Grade: F
3. Kyle Hendricks is a top-20 starting pitcher
I think he was a little bit more than a top-20 starter, wouldn’t you all agree? By WAR, Hendricks was the 14th best pitcher in all of baseball. By Yahoo! fantasy rank, the Cubs’ 26-year-old righty finished the season as the seventh best starter after ending the year with 190.0 innings pitched, 16 wins, 170 punchouts, a 2.13 ERA and very low 0.98 WHIP. How’s that for a year?! He could win the Cy Young in the National League and he easily snuck up as one of the biggest sleeper starters out of everyone in the National League. Who knows if he will repeat (my money is pitching very well again, but maybe not this good), but certainly the Cubs were happy he was this solid and fantasy owners who snagged him in the middle of their draft were extremely satisfied by his performance. Grade: A+
4. Noah Syndergaard is the second-best NL pitcher
If we go by WAR, I am right and Syndergaard was the second best with only Clayton Kershaw finishing the season with a higher WAR. But this is fantasy baseball and so I have to use fantasy rankings to base the success or failure of my predictions. According to Yahoo! sports, Syndergaard was the 12th best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball this season. He turned in a truly remarkable season by all regards, 183.2 innings, 14 wins, 218 punchouts, a 2.60 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. But there were a lot of phenomenal starters our there this season. So while Fangraphs believes that I am right that Syndergaard was the second-best guy, ultimately fantasy dictates the outcome and this was a bit of a miss. Grade: D+
5. Mookie Betts is a top-3 outfielder
This turned out to be a slam dunk, no doubt about it win for my prediction. If you want to go by WAR, Betts was second only to Mike Trout among outfielders. Going by Yahoo! fantasy rankings, he was the best over Trout and Bryant among qualifying outfielders. With a .318 average, 31 dingers, 26 steals, 122 runs scored and 113 RBI, Betts was everything anyone could have hoped for. Grade: A++
6. Brian McCann is not a top-15 catcher
Take McCann’s season and put it in almost any other year and you will have a season that should not be in the top-15 among catchers. A measly .242 batting average, 20 homers, only 58 RBI and 56 runs scored do not a great hitter make. However, it was a serious down year for catchers and McCann finished as the tenth best among qualifying catchers according to Yahoo! fantasy sports. Next year when Gary Sanchez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Alfaro all receive more playing time, then maybe McCann will drop out of the top-15. But for now, he is in (even if only be the hair on his chinny chin chin). I’m going to give myself a little bit of credit for predicting that he had a down year, but there is no doubt that this prediction is mostly wrong. Grade: D
7. A.J. Reed wins the AL ROY and finishes as a top-5 AL 1B
This was my biggest swing-and-miss on the list. And it is because Reed himself had too many swing-and-miss issues. Ranked among the top three first base prospects by MLB.com entering the season, Reed was viewed by many to be a guy who would require a few works of tinkering at Triple-A before being promoted to the big leagues to begin his reign as the Astros’ franchise first baseman. Unfortunately for Reed and fantasy owners, he struggled early at Triple-A which delayed his big league debut until June 25. And even then when he was promoted, he really struggled and had to be sent back down to Triple-A. Now he did perform better in the second half of the season with the big league club (barely), but he did not emerge as a candidate for Rookie of the Year and was very far away from qualifying as a top-5 first baseman in the American League. The verdict is quite easy. Grade: F
8. Billy Hamilton hits above .255 and steals 90 bases
Who would’ve ever guessed that the only part about this prediction that would come out as true would be the batting average. Hamilton finished with a .260 batting average, but injuries shortened his season to only 119 games and he was unable to rack up the 90 steals I predicted (though he was on pace for about 80 steals). I was 50% right here and so I will take a decent grade here. Grade: C+
9. Randal Grichuk hits 30 home runs
Are we going to be technical? Because if we are, then I am right. Between Triple-A and the big leagues, Grichuk hit exactly 30 home runs with six coming at AAA and the other 24 coming from the majors. If he had not been sent down in the middle of the season, this prediction would’ve been a lot closer to being really true. But we only count big league stats in fantasy. So for now, this is a bit of a poor grade. Grade: D
10. Rougned Odor is a top-5 second baseman
Odor turned in an outstanding season. He hit .271 with 33 dingers, 14 stolen bases, 88 RBI and 89 runs scored, all while playing an historically weak offensive position. But the key word here is historically because this season, most of the top performers in the game were at second base. Jose Altuve emerged as a legit MVP candidate, Brian Dozier set a record for home runs by an AL second baseman, Daniel Murphy and D.J. LeMahieu each hit over .340, Jean Segura had a 20/20 season and so on and so on. In seemingly any other year, Odor would’ve been a top-5 second baseman. But not this season. This season he was a Top-10 guy, typically finishing around seventh and eighth according to Yahoo! fantasy sports. Still though, I doubt many fantasy owners are going to complain too much about how well he performed. Grade: C+
