October 14, 2016

Seth I. Finkelstein looks at the top NFL survivor picks for Week 6 of the 2016 NFL season, giving you survivor league advice for targets and avoids.

Through five weeks of the season, it’s safe to pronounce the Houston Texans as this year’s good bad team. They’ll defeat the bad teams, but get crushed by the good ones. The Texans had trouble defeating the Bears, Chiefs, and Titans. They got smoked by the Patriots and didn’t seem too interested in playing football against the Vikings on Sunday. The Texans are anything but fun to watch. Which is a shame because they should be given the playmakers on their offense. Lamar Miller is lightning quick, DeAndre Hopkins can make one-handed catches­, and their rookie Will Fuller is pretty electric. Yet, the Texans playing the Colts on Sunday Night Football will make me turn the MLB Playoffs on.

The Vikings and Bucs are both on their bye weeks.

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Survivor League Strategy

1. Avoid divisional bouts

Last season in Week 2, the Saints were a sure thing lock of the year against the Buccaneers in New Orleans. Tampa Bay ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor contests. Also last year, the Packers were heavy favorites against the 1-7 Lions in Lambeau and proceeded to lose.

2. Avoid taking a road team

I would rather put my money on a home team with a home field advantage. The rule doesn't apply to a team playing in San Diego. The road teams fans fill up a majority of Qualcomm Stadium, making it a de facto home game for the road team.

3. Play the Matchups

I will be using the lines from sportsbook.ag for the season.

Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 6

@Cardinals -8 vs. Jets

Todd Bowles is giving reasons for the New York media to destroy him. The Jets are sleepwalking through the first half of the season, a time they needed to play their best given the brutal schedule dealt. Ryan Fitzpatrick did his best to not turn the ball over last week, probably a reason why his longest throw Sunday was for 18 yards. There's not a single part of this team a Jets fan should like.

Whoever Arizona's quarterback is for Monday night's game, he will revel looking at Ben Roethlisberger's stat line from Sunday: 34-of-47 for 380 yards and four scores. The Cardinals have the weapons akin to the Steelers' offense. I have no clue how the Jets secondary will be able to cover Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, John Brown, and David Johnson out of the backfield. If Bruce Arians calls an aggressive, push the ball downfield kind of game, the Jets will be toasted in the desert.

@Titans -7 vs. Browns

This point spread is too high. Tennessee shouldn't be a touchdown favorite against anyone, even if Charlie Whitehurst is starting. (Editor's note: Charlie Whitehurst was released by the Browns on Tuesday).

The Titans' offensive line has looked terrific. Tennessee ran for 235 rushing yards against the Dolphins Sunday, and are the second-ranked rushing offense in the league. DeMarco Murray, second in rushing, gets to face a Browns unit giving up 114 rushing yards per game. The Browns may have a good running game themselves, 125 a game, but the Titans hold opponents to 98 yards a game. Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey may have an "exotic smashmouth" offense, but his team is tough.

The Titans' physicality will be too much for the Browns to handle.

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 6

@Bills -8 vs. 49ers

Three weeks ago, Rex Ryan was the favorite to be the first coach fired. But after wins against a Cardinals team that's a shell of themselves from last year, a Tom Brady-less Patriots squad, and a team led by Case Keenum, is now 3-2, garnering the respect of Vegas.

The Bills are a scrappy team that'll go 8-8 or 7-9. Even after those three wins, I don't see a lot to like. The offense is nothing special. They put up 298 total yards against the Cards, 378 in New England, and 305 in LA. Tyrod Taylor has yet to throw for 300 yards in a game this season and he will struggle facing the 49ers pass defense that only allows 223 passing yards per game.

The Bills should be able to run the ball against the second-worst rush defense in the league. If LeSean McCoy can't get going, though, the Bills will be in big trouble.

The 49ers have benched Blaine Gabbert and will start Colin Kaepernick, who can't be any worse than his predecessor. If Kaepernick runs around, does some stuff, the game could turn out a lot closer than public perception.

@Seahawks -6 vs. Falcons