RADIO
Wild Card Weekend is here and it features six pretty interesting matchups. I’m going to stick to just DraftKings this week with the abbreviated slate. Let’s dig into it.
Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back and possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field.
The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Josh Allen ($7900) + Stefon Diggs ($7600)
Miami has been decimated by injuries, and the Vegas spread reflects that fact with Buffalo favored by a whopping 13.5 points. Without Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater, the Dolphins will likely turn to rookie Skylar Thompson — who has appeared in seven contests already in his first year in the league, throwing just one touchdown pass.
Buffalo’s offense has once again found its mojo, scoring 32, 35, and 35 points over their last three games. The matchup is pristine for Josh Allen, as the Fins have yielded the second-most completions and pass attempts, the fifth-most passing yards, and the second-most rushing yards to signal-callers (Pro Football Reference). Allen himself accounted for 124 rushing yards across his two meetings with the division foe.
Mike McDaniel’s defense is surrendering the sixth-highest completion percentage of any team (66.7%), and only the Titans have allowed more completions. Allen picked apart this unit for 400 yards passing in Week 3 and another 304 in Week 15.
Stefon Diggs ended the regular season on a high note, posting a 7/104/1 line in Week 18. It was his first 100-yard game since Week 10, and the former Viking now has seven 100-yard games this year. With Isaiah McKenzie on the injury report, Buffalo’s WR1 could be looking at increased volume in an already advantageous spot.
Preferred bring-back: Tyreek Hill ($7900)
Leverage piece: Dawson Knox ($4000)
2022 wasn’t quite like 2021 for Dawson Knox. However, he still finished as the PPR TE16 for the season. He notched five games with double-digit PPR points. He’s also seen at least one red-zone target in three straight contests. Combine that with the Dolphins’ penchant for giving up fantasy points to TEs (third-most receptions and fourth-most TDs to the position), and Knox could have a huge game during Wild Card Weekend.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Kirk Cousins ($5900) + Justin Jefferson ($8400) AND/OR Adam Thielen ($4400)
Minnesota and New York met just three weeks ago, at the same venue — U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings came out on top of a 27-24 result, and Kirk Cousins and his band of pass-catching brothers had a day. Kirk amassed 299 passing yards and three touchdowns, and much of that production was soaked up by Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson (133 and 109 yards respectively). Both of them also drew an astounding 16 targets.
Not much has changed since then, as both Jefferson and Hockenson continue to roll. However, we cannot forget about Adam Thielen, who has quietly been an annoyance for the red-zone ceilings of the aforementioned duo. He has 21 red-zone targets to Jefferson’s 28, while Hockenson has drawn 18 total for the season. Thielen continues to stay involved around the goal line; he’s garnered multiple red-zone targets in three of his last seven games.
Preferred bring-back: Isaiah Hodgins ($4100)
Leverage piece: K.J. Osborn ($4500)
The fourth wheel of Minnesota’s passing offense has been K.J. Osborn. Osborn has four games of 100+ yards or a touchdown in his last five games. Over that span, he’s drawn seven red-zone targets. That is one explosive fourth wheel if I do say so myself. With a healthy amount of ownership likely going to Jefferson, Hockenson, and likely even Thielen, K.J. could be a strong leverage option.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Brock Purdy ($5300) + George Kittle ($6100)
San Francisco is viewed as the co-favorite by Vegas to make the Super Bowl out of the NFC, and for good reason. The Niners are absolutely rolling, dropping 38, 37, 37, 21, and 35 points over their last five games. Over that time, Brock Purdy has commanded the offense at an efficient level; He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in six straight games and has mustered a 65.4% completion rate or better in five of his last six games.
As I shared last week, his favorite target is clearly George Kittle. The Iowa product stayed hot in Week 18, catching another two touchdowns. He’s scored seven touchdowns over his last four outings — accounting for 25.3, 30.0, 12.3, and 18.9 PPR points in those games. He is fresh off a 4/93/2 stat line against these exact same Seahawks in Week 15. Continue to trust the Purdy-Kittle connection in Week 19.
Preferred bring-back: DK Metcalf ($6200)
Leverage piece: Elijah Mitchell ($4700)
Either Christian McCaffrey is going to be treated like a true bell-cow throughout the playoffs, or Elijah Mitchell is going to carve out a nice complementary role. My money is on the latter, as Kyle Shanahan’s long track record of using multiple backs and his affinity for Mitchell is enough writing on the wall.
Returning from injury last week, Mitchell handled five carries and two came in the red zone. He’s only played in five games this season, but he toted at least one red-zone carry in four of those contests. Though he’s only totaled 45 carries this season, Mitchell has averaged 6.2 yards per carry, which would trail only Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson if he had enough carries to qualify.
The field will love clicking CMC (and rightfully so), but Mitchell might get high-value touches near the goal line to pay off a pretty low price tag.
Good luck this weekend! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here -- @thejacksonkane.
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