RADIO
For the most part, you can pretty much throw out statistics in a one game playoff. This will be the fourth year of the new Wild Card game system. In the previous three years, home teams own a record of 3-3. Cy Young candidates have gotten torched on the road, and young hitters have entered their names among the league’s elites. How does this play into your Tuesday-Wednesday games on DraftKings? Well, throw a dart in the dark at a board with several names. Go ahead and go with the names the dart hits.
Below are my DraftKings picks for Tuesday and Wednesday, October 5th and 6th, 2015. As always, remember to check your players to make sure they are in their MLB starting lineups before lineups lock. My goal with these DFS picks, as always, is to try and identify MLB players who will outperform their expectations today and tomorrow, based on their matchups and FanDuel prices. These players can be high-cost players, or they can be value pick sleepers, but we are always looking for players that have a chance to return the greatest value for your DFS lineups. Let’s get to it.
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MLB & DraftKings DFS Game Notes
- No weather problems. Both games should off without a hitch under chilly conditions.
- On August 1, the Astros and Yankees were both sitting atop their divisions with three and five game leads, respectively. Houston has since gone 29-28 and the feared Bronx Bombers limped to the finish line with 29 wins and 30 losses. These are two examples of not exactly finishing strong.
- As if you didn’t need a reminder, but Jake Arrieta is in the middle of an historic run. He has been dominant over the last two months and has checked the Pirates this season in 36 innings this season. He struck out 33 batters and had a ridiculous WHIP 0.639 WHIP against the Buccos. He should dominate them. But this sounds all too familiar for playoff games. He also figures to be heavily owned in nearly every format.
- Of the four teams playing, the hottest hitter over the last two weeks is George Springer. He has a .436 wOBA during that span.
- The American League game figures to feature heavy use of each team’s bullpen. The National League game will almost exclusively be Arrieta vs. Gerrit Cole.
DFS Pitchers to Consider for DraftKings
Dallas Keuchel, HOU - $11,400
The probable AL Cy Young Winner is going on three days of rest for the first time in his career. Though the probability of him going deep into the game is low, I’ll take his solid five or six innings over Masahiro Tanaka’s likelihood of getting blown up.
Gerrit Cole, PIT - $10,600
Common sense dictates that Arrieta should get the nod as the pitcher from the NL game. He is most likely going to win the Cy Young and, as explained above, he has dominated the Pirates all year. But do you remember Cole in the 2013 NLDS against the Cardinals? He was a complete maniac. Seriously. The dude had the look in his eyes like he was going to actually murder someone. I’ll take that proven look against a Cubs team strikes out at a 24.0% clip.
DFS Infielders to Consider for DraftKings
CATCHERS
Miguel Montero, CHC - $3,000
I get it. I picked a catcher to go against one of my pitchers. With a two game tournament, you have to expect some overlay in your lineups. Honestly I don’t even like Montero against Cole. He is just the best pick of a bad situation. If you need salary relief, go ahead and punt the catcher position.
FIRST BASE
Pedro Alvarez, PIT - $3,200
Anthony Rizzo makes more sense here, but if you’re looking for salary cap relief then Alvarez meets the criteria. Alvarez should also be owned less than Rizzo. He is the biggest home run threat of the night for the Pirates. Of course, he could also strike out five times.
SECOND BASE
Jose Altuve, HOU - $5,000
Rob Refsnyder, NYY - $2,500
This all depends on what you can and cannot afford. If you have the money, take Altuve and his .313 AVG. Should you need some relief, Refsnyder is a serviceable plugin but will bat lower in the lineup.
SHORTSTOP
Carlos Correa, HOU - $4,700
Starlin Castro, CHC - $2,900
Of all the players suiting up on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, I like Correa’s chances to go yard the most. He has faced Tanka three times this season and has two hits, one of which is a long ball. Most of Correa’s dingers this season have come in the shallowest part of each park, and it gets pretty shallow in Yankee stadium. Should you look to go cheap at the shortstop position, then go with Castro. He owns some solid career splits against Cole with a limited number of strikeouts.
THIRD BASE
Luis Valbuena, HOU - $3,000
Houston’s streaky third baseman just may be the most important play during the Wild Card games. Over the last month, the free-swinging third baseman owns a .457 wOBA and .289 ISO. Now that’s legit. He figures to enter nearly all my lineups.
DFS Outfielders to Consider for DraftKings
George Springer, HOU - $4,400
As explained in the beginning notes, Springer is the hottest bat over the last two weeks entering the Wild Card slate. The Astros have essentially been in playoff mode over the last couple of weeks, and both Springer and Valbuena have been absolute beasts. Go ahead and give both of those ‘Stros long looks.
Carlos Beltran, NYY - $3,900
Beltran is perhaps the greatest hitter in postseason history, nd he owns nice career splits against Keuchel. If Keuchel does leave the game early, Beltran could really take advantage of some weak RHP from the Astros bullpen.
Starling Marte, PIT - $3,800
For whatever reason, I like the Pirates to pull this game out tonight. And I like Marte to have his breaking out par-tay this postseason. It starts on Wednesday night. He should continue to improve upon his .389 wOBA over the last 30 days.
Dexter Fowler, CHC - $3,600
Fowler will get plenty of chances batting leadoff. At least that is the theory. It’s possibly Cole goes out and dominates batter by batter, thus limiting Fowler’s plate appearances. Fowler is the best option on the Cubs, but it may be in vain.
Chris Young, NYY - $2,600
It’s hard to ignore Young’s price compared to his value against left-handed pitching. Even if he does bat lower in the lineup, he figures to grab some precious points in what figures to be a postseason dominated by pitching.
