RADIO
Matt Williams takes a look at some fantasy baseball trade questions for the 2018 MLB season. Players highlighted include: Trea Turner, Carlos Carrasco, Matt Kemp, and Christian Yelich.
We are well on our way into June and the time is now to make some serious moves to help fill your fantasy team's needs. If you fail to make a change now you risk falling too far behind in roto and missing out on valuable buy-lows in head to head. Today we are going to dig into the trade values of a couple of disappointing early round draft picks: Trea Turner and Carlos Carrasco. Many fantasy owners are "fed up" with the disappointing production thus far from their stud players that were meant to anchor their squad and lead them to victory. I will also take a look at the value of Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Jean Segura, and Matt Kemp. You know you have been trying to trade Matt Kemp. Be sure to send you trade questions and trade offers to me @MattWi77iams on Twitter for a chance to be included in next's weeks "Making Moves" article.
Trading is the most creative and fun way to improve your fantasy baseball roster, but also the hardest. You have to be able to value your own players objectively while accurately gauging how your fellow league owners value their own players. It is a battle of strategy, risk, and chance that can pay off in a big way if you know how to approach each situation. Be sure to have reasonable expectations and make offers that benefit both teams.
"But wait, I want to win the trade and fleece the other guy." I hear this all the time and it is a bad attitude to have if you want other players to deal with you again in the future. People value their own players higher than anyone else does, it's just the way it is. You don't want to insult another owner and gain a poor reputation, otherwise they will see you your trade offer in their email and simply delete it. Ever send an offer and not get a response? That is why. It is important to make trade offers that make sense for both sides while making your team better.
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The Mailbag Scoring System
Every week, I will be breaking down trade values as well as trade offers sent in by RotoBaller readers to shed some light on how to make the best deal for your team. I will be grading trades that have been sent in using the classic letter system. Here are examples of what those grades might mean:
- A: The reader won the trade. No risk, no downside. All victory.
- B: The reader won the trade, but it was fair enough.
- C: The trade was even for both sides and could go either way.
- D: Even though the move may have filled a need, it was a poor return
- F: What was the reader thinking?
- V: Good or bad, this trade is likely to be vetoed. (I do not condone vetoing trades.)
If you want me to grade your trade, send your fantasy baseball trade questions on Twitter to @MattWi77iams. Now, let's take a look at some trades you may be looking at this week in fantasy baseball.
Who's on the Block This Week?
Carlos Carrasco (SP, Cleveland Indians)
Carlos Carrasco came into the season expected to be an SP1 that could anchor a fantasy owners staff. So far in 2018 the Cleveland right-hander has not loved up to expectations, posting a 4.50 ERA and a 3.90 FIP. The main cause for concern has been the dip in Carrasco’s strikeout rate, dropping from 10.17 K/9 in 2017 to 8.64 K/9 this year. The interesting thing to note is that although his overall strikeout production is down, Carrasco’s chase rate has seen an uptick of 4.4%. This would indicate that an increase in K’s may be coming to the Indians righty.
Another concern for Carrasco is the kind of contact he is giving up this season. Aside from seeing a spike in his hard-contact rate (36.2%)He is simply letting too many pitches be put into the air. Carrasco’s groundball rate is down 5.4%, which is not ideal considering those are the easiest outs for a defense to convert. More ground balls equals more outs, and more outs equals better stats. Fantasy owners want better production out of Carlos Carrasco. So should you hold onto him? Or should you try to sell him now with the worry that his value somehow dips even lower?
“Would you ship Junis & Asdrubal Cabrera (outgoing) for Carrasco (incoming) in points league? I’m slightly skeptical about Carrasco and I feel like I shouldn’t be.”
Asdrubal Cabrera looks like a man on a missions in 2018, slashing .287/.329/.498 with 10 home runs and a .352 wOBA and 127 wRC+. The only thing with the Mets infielder is that his best stretch of production could very well be behind him this year and you would be trading full price for a player who will not perform this way all season long. A 32 year-old veteran who has the highest ISO of his career while also seeing a decline in his walk rate and spike in strikeout rate? I'm not sure we can expect this current success to last. Can he help a fantasy team? Of course. I just want to highlight the possible downfalls of acquiring the kind of player in June.
Jakob Junis is having himself a solid enough year for the Royals, posting a 3.62 ERA. That does come with a grain of salt when you look at his accompanying 4.22 FIP. Honestly, there is nothing special enough about Junis' rest of season potential that adds much value in a trade, as many comparable talents are available of the waiver wire in standard leagues. The .263 BABIP the Royals right-hander is carrying is certain to normalize at some point as well. If we assume this is a deeper league then we can adjust the trade offer accordingly to account for Junis’ value in a other mixed formats.
The bottom line here is that both the best-case scenario for both players the owner is giving up in return do not come close to matching the value Carlos Carrasco could provide if he turns his season around. The Indians right-hander still boasts a respectable 3.69 xFIP regardless of his troubles. If an owner wanted to trade a pitcher of Carrasco’s caliber they should aim a bit higher than this asking price. Think Jean Segura or Xander Bogaerts if targeting a middle infielder, not Asdrubal Cabrera. If you need a SP in return as well maybe try a package like Whit Merrifield and Sean Newcomb or Miles Mikolas perhaps, to give you a ballpark value. Carlos Carrasco has not been “terrible” and it would be a shame to sell him low while it’s only June. Great job buying Carrasco low.
I would grade this trade an: A+
Trea Turner (SS, Washington Nationals)
Trea Turner was drafted in the top-5 in many drafts this season with fantasy owners expecting an earth shattering performance highlighted by upwards of 60 stolen bases with a large handful of home runs. Many thought that a 20/40 season was a modest “given” for the Nationals shortstop if he could remain healthy for an entire season. Well, that has not happened as of yet. While Turner has been productive, he has not set the world on fire as many had hoped and predicted. Turner is batting .255/.341/.397 with seven home runs and 16 stolen bases so far in 2018. So what is the problem?
Turner's walk rate has actually skyrocketed in 2018, increasing from 6.7% to 11.1%. That is great news to hear if you are a Turner owner who hopes he sticks in the leadoff spot. Be warned though, Adam Eaton's return is very close and he could be dropping back down, regardless of it being a poor decision to do so. The Washington shortstop's BABIP is relatively normal, along with his strikeout rate, so there does not seem to be anything obvious that is contributing to his early season struggles. In fact, Turner's hard contact rate is up around 10% this season, up to 36.2% from last seasons 26.7%. Ground ball and fly ball rates have stayed consistent, while his contact rate has actually seen a bump. All signs point to one thing, and that is that opposing pitchers are handling him differently. According to Brooks Baseball, opposing pitchers are giving Turner a steadier diet of breaking pitches, and Turner is not handling them as well as he would like. The Nationals' shortstop is batting just .170 when thrown a slider this season and carries an ISO well below 100 on all breaking pitches in 2018. The chart below shows the spike in swings Trea Turner made this year when thrown a breaking ball. As a result, Turner's whiff percentage rose on those offerings as well.
Turner is a young, talented player that is simply being challenged in the early season. All metrics indicate that not only are their no red flags to be overly concerned with, but Turner is in fact getting better. Owners of the 24-year-old should remain patient, as selling low of the multi-tool star may be a terrible mistake.
"Matt, I traded Segura and Keuchel for Trea Turner, good deal?”
On the surface this looks like a pretty fair trade, but let’s take a look under the hood and see if it makes sense. Jean Segura is having a terrfic season, slashing ..338/.357/.488 with five home runs and 12 stolen bases. The Seattle shortstop also boasts a .359 wOBA and career low swinging strike rate. That's the good news. Welcome to red-flagville. Segura holds a unsustainable .374 BABIP while also cutting his walk rate in half so far in 2018. Those two metrics should cause pause for those investing in the speedy veteran. Segura has been a bit pull happy in 2018 and his rest of season projection should build is some regression.
Dallas Kuechel is a better "real-life" pitcher than a fantasy pitcher due to his lack luster strikeout potential. The veteran has been able to overcome this in recent season because of an elite ground ball rate (66% in 2017). The problem with a player like Kuechel is that when he is not putting the ball on the ground at an elite rate, he lacks the ability to overcome base runners with a strikeout. Guess what folks? That is exactly his issue right now. Keuchel currently carries a 55.2% ground ball rate, which would be tremendous for anyone else. Sadly, due to the kind of pitcher the Astros' righty is, he needs that rate to be higher. Why? I will tell you why. When Dallas Keuchel elevates his pitches, he gets destroyed. The league average HR/FB rate is between 12-14% roughly. Kuechel holds a career HR/FB ratio of close to 18%, with the last two seasons hovering near 20%. Pair that with his career high 1.34 HR/9 allowed this season and you have a 4.13 ERA with no strikeouts to make it palatable. No thanks.
The bottom line here is that Trea Turner is a premier talent with a "sky's the limit" ceiling. The combination of Jean Segura and Dallas Kuchel simply does not provide enough value to turn down a player like Trea Turner in a deal. This is a fantastic move by the Segura owner to buy low on the Washington star, while also ridding himself of a pitcher that may actually better off on the waiver wire in shallow leagues the way he is performing (maybe that was a bit harsh).
I would give this trade an: B
“Giancarlo and Pivetta for Trea Turner? I need a SS and have HR to spare”
You wouldn't know it to talk to a Stanton owner, or a Yankees' fan, this season but Giancarlo Stanton is having a decent year. Maybe it is not the production that many were hoping for, but nonetheless, a decent start to the season. The slugging outfielder is slashing .251/.325/.484 with 13 home runs and .345 wOBA. While certainly not on pace for 60 home runs, those numbers are still viable enough to help a fantasy owner win. Ok, ok, I am done sugar coating it. Stanton has been a bust. The new Yankee has seen his walk rate fall 33% while allowing his strikeout rate to climb to 30.6%. Stanton does this while "enjoying" a career high 16% swinging strike rate and close to career worst 33.3% chase rate at pitches outside of the strike zone. It's possible that the power hitting outfielder is simply pressing to perform in his new big city surroundings, as Stanton still holds a 41.6% hard contact rate (higher than his 59 season a year ago), but is seems unlikely that we will live up to his 2018 draft day price tag at this point. Although he did achieve the hardest hit ball of the season Wednesday night, according to David Adler.
The bottom line here is that the Stanton owner needed both stolen bases and a shortstop. There is no one better to check those boxes than Trea Turner. If they have extra home runs to spare than this trade becomes a no brainer, at least for the team involved. Nick Pivetta is having a fine season and I don't mean t simply float over him here, but let's be honest, his presence does nothing to alter the decision making in this particular trade. If we were to erase the needs on the owner who sent in this trade offer and just judge the trade in a vacuum than I would call it fairly even. I would bet on a Turner turn around more than a Stanton one at this point, but if someone needed a starting pitcher and some home runs I could see making this move.
How about, for the sake of argument, let's play this out from the other side. Let's say you are the Turner owner and you need power and a pitcher. You also have a decent backup SS and steals to spare. Got it? I think the better move would to target an outfielder like Khris Davis instead of Stanton. To be honest, you are looking close to the same numbers in 2018 but you will not have to pay the premium for Giancarlo's name. This would allow you to ask for a better starting pitcher in return, perhaps Pivetta's teammate Aaron Nola, or perhaps even shoot a bit higher.
I grade the trade above a: B-
Matt Kemp (OF, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Matt Kemp evidently located the fountain of youth this offseason. Either that or the early season rumors of his imminent release gave the veteran outfielder some much needed motivation to show flashes of his former all-star skills. Kemp is batting .344/.374/.568 with nine home runs and 34 RBI during his homecoming campaign with the Dodgers this year. I don;t want to waste your time and say "Matt Kemp is back babayyy!" That would be false. There is a glaringly large red flag throwing cold water on the Kemp fire, and that is a comically high .400 BABIP. Not that you should take everything away from Kemp. He is having a great season, he truly is. The man has a 47.9% hard contact rate. Wow. You may be wondering: "Is that the best in baseball?" No. That would belong to Matt Olson at 54.3% (I told you to buy low). Kemp is 5th in baseball though and 3rd in the National League. If I were a Matt Kemp owner I would not be looking to trade him, mostly because I would find it unlikely someone would pay the amount he is worth via trade due to built in doubts about his performance.
“Matt - I was offered Eddie Rosario for Matt Kemp and Bud Norris, should I take it?”
Remember when I said I would not want to trade Matt Kemp because no one would offer what he is worth? Maybe I was wrong. This is something to look at. Eddie Rosario is a beast. The Twins outfielder is slashing .314/.351/.562 with 13 home runs and five stolen bases this year. The difference between Rosario and Kemp is that Rosario is doing this with a career average BABIP and HR/FB ratio. It is all legitimate. If you were to erase the names from the trade and go strictly off the numbers this seems like an even trade after baking in some regression for Kemp. Unfortunately, or not, we do know the names. The name Matt Kemp comes with some baggage, namely injuries. If you take likely regression, injury history, and age into consideration this makes for an easy desciosn to trade the trade in the old car for the new model. Time to take Eddie Rosario for a spin. Sorry Bud Norris, you do not factor into the decision.
I would give this deal a: B+
Christian Yelich (OF, Milwaukee Brewers)
I am not entirely sure why anyone would want to trade away Christian Yelich, but I have received plenty of trade questions with him at the center, so we are going to take a look at what you should expect if trading the Milwaukee outfielder. Yelich is batting .297/.370/.469 with seven home runs and seven stolen bases to go with a .362 wOBA in 2018. He contributes in every fantasy category and is carrying a career best 44.0% hard contact rate. Yelich is not going to "wow" you in any particular area, but he is going to put up consistent production you can count on and he will do it batting .300 all year.
I have been asked about Christian Yelich's trade value so often this week that I thought I would list comparable players, value wise, at each postiton as a guide for you:
- Catcher: I would accept Gary Sanchez only if dealing Yelich 1-for-1 for a catcher.
- First Base: Jose Abreu
- Second Base: Brian Dozier, Dee Gordan
- Third Base: No one (I would need more than Rendon, Donaldson, or Bregman back at this point)
- Shortstop: No one (I would need more than Segura and Bogaerts back at this point)
- Outfielders of similar value: Starling Marte
- Starting Pitchers: High End options like Strasburg and Syndergaard are worth a shot then Carrasco, Grienke, Nola
“I had too many injury ridden players so I traded Pollock for Yelich straight up.”
I will keep this short and sweet. Great job. I would prefer to own Yelich over Pollock regardless of injury.
I would give this deal a: A++
More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis
