X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Le'Veon Bell - Still a Fantasy First-Rounder?

Is New York Jets RB Le'Veon Bell still a first-round pick in redraft leagues? Jason Katz examines the running back's value in 2019 after taking a year off and switching teams.

We are largely in uncharted territory when it comes to Le'Veon Bell. If there has been a previous instance of an elite player sitting out a full season and changing teams, I'm not aware of it.

We last saw Bell play football in 2017. As a Steeler, Bell benefited from one of the league's best offensive lines, a top quarterback, and an overall excellent offense. After not playing for the entirety of 2018, we have to try and figure out the combined impact of a new team and not playing for a full season.

He is established as an elite running back, is just 27 years old, and should be fresh after a year-long hiatus. But does he warrant a first-round pick in 2019?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Plenty of Pros

In 2017, Bell led the NFL with 406 touches. Back in 2016, although playing in just 12 games, Bell actually averaged more fantasy points per game than David Johnson. We have never known a Le'Veon Bell that was anything other than an elite fantasy asset.

One aspect of Bell's game that we should not worry about is his opportunity. The Jets have very little behind Bell on the depth chart and, even so, Bell is far too talented to share a backfield. 400 touches is certainly within his range of outcomes. Even with massive volume, it is foolish to think that Bell's ceiling, or even his expected performance, is anywhere close to what it was in Pittsburgh.

Bell's patient running style relies on an offensive line opening up holes allowing him to shoot through them. In 2018, the Jets offensive line ranked dead last in adjusted line yards and stuff percentage. While it is reasonable to expect an improvement, the Jets offensive line still projects to fall in the lower third of the league. Will Bell's running style work behind a weak offensive line? If not, will Bell be able to modify his game to deal with an offensive line that can't block? These are questions that I do not have the answer to. If I did, there wouldn't be a question over whether Bell is still worth a first round pick in fantasy - we would know for sure one way or the other.

I can confidently say that I do not think Bell's talent has gone anywhere. I also think that 100+ targets is likely. Bell's floor is probably 2018 David Johnson. His ceiling is the problem. Sam Darnold is not Ben Roethlisberger and the Jets passing game does not pose quite the threat the Steelers did, which helped open up the run (because it has been proven that the passing game opens up the run, not the other way around). That certainly will cap Bell's touchdown upside, but the lower caliber passing game also could mean more targets for Bell.

Last season, Elijah McGuire was the best fantasy running back on the Jets, averaging 11.3 ppg. In order for Bell to be worth a first-round pick, we need to be able to reasonably project approximately 17 ppg (last season eight running backs averaged over 20 ppg, which is the most since 2012, which is as far back as I checked and unlikely to happen again). Assuming a full 16 games, we need to get Bell to 272 fantasy points. Can we do it?

 

Path to RB1

Last season, the Jets scored 11 rushing touchdowns. I do not think it is fair to give all 11 of those to Bell. I think eight is a much more realistic number. We can tack on two receiving touchdowns. The Jets rushed for 1,622 yards. I don't feel comfortable giving Bell more than 1,100 of those and even that feels high. Jets running backs had a total of 599 receiving yards on 68 total receptions. It is exceedingly difficult to project Bell's receiving totals. He's obviously a far better receiver than the Jets' medley of running backs in 2018 and he will have more pass plays designed for him, but defenses also know this and will account for this.

Over his career, Bell has averaged five receptions per game, and that was on a team that consistently had elite receiving options. I'm okay with giving Bell 80 receptions at seven yards per reception (which is lower than his career average of 8.5). So we've got him at 1660 total yards, 80 receptions, and 10 touchdowns. That totals 306 fantasy points or 19.1 ppg. If Bell can achieve the above, he will be well worth a late first round pick.

My concern is that I think what I just projected is just about Bell's ceiling. Even if Darnold takes an expected step forward, the Jets offensive line would need to improve to at least average for Bell to meet or exceed my projections. If Darnold does not improve and, more importantly, if the Jets offensive line remains bad, Bell could very well end up struggling to reach 1000 rushing yards with his yards per reception dropping even lower than I projected, resulting in something like 400 receiving yards to go along with a total of just six touchdowns. Either way, Bell is going to need to rack up the receptions to remain an RB1.

 

Conclusion

Bell's ceiling is a mid RB1. His volume is so secure that his floor is a high RB2. Bell does not have the upside to be a true game-changer like 2016 DJ, 2017 Todd Gurley, or 2018 Christian McCaffrey. However, Bell is a safe pick at the back end of the first round and unlikely to be the type of first-round landmine that derails your season. I count eight players I would definitely take over Bell: Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins. After these guys, if you want to make Bell your selection, feel free to do so.

In conclusion, Bell is still worthy of a first-round selection, but he is certainly not a lock to be taken there, nor should you feel bad if you choose to pass on him in favor of Joe Mixon, James Conner, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, JuJu Smith-Schuster, or Michael Thomas, to name a few.

 

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
NHL

Dan Vladar Links Up with Flyers on Two-Year Deal
NHL

Andrew Mangiapane Signs Two-Year Pact with Oilers
NHL

Ryan Lindgren Joins Kraken on Four-Year Contract
NHL

Christian Dvorak Heads to Philadelphia
Logan Stankoven

Signs Long-Term Extension with Hurricanes
NHL

Jonathan Drouin Joins Islanders on Two-Year Contract
NHL

Devils Hand Connor Brown a Four-Year Contract
NHL

John Klingberg Lands in San Jose
William Eklund

Signs Three-Year Extension with Sharks
Will Cuylle

Agrees to Two-Year Contract with Rangers
NHL

Vladislav Gavrikov Inks Seven-Year Deal with Rangers
NHL

Tanner Jeannot Moves to Boston
NHL

Corey Perry Joins Kings on One-Year Deal
K'Andre Miller

Hurricanes Pick Up K'Andre Miller
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Josh Hader

Stays Perfect In Save Conversion On Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Shane Baz

Fans 11 Against Athletics
Grant Holmes

Strikes Out 10 in Scoreless Outing
Houston Rockets

Jeff Green Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
T.J. Watt

Trying to Become Highest-Paid Non-QB?
Willson Contreras

Doubtful for Wednesday
George Springer

Clubs Two Homers in Seven-RBI Day
Joshua Palmer

Could be a Sleeper
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Laviska Shenault Jr.

on the Bubble
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Raheem Blackshear

to Work Mostly As Special-Teamer
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Rico Dowdle

Trevor Etienne to Split Carries?
Chuba Hubbard

Should See Majority of Touches in 2025
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Willson Contreras

Avoids Structural Damage on Hand After HBP
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Josh Naylor

Scratched From Tuesday's Lineup Against Giants
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
ANA

Mikael Granlund Moves to Anaheim on Three-Year Deal
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
NJ

Jake Allen Signs Five-Year Extension With Devils
VAN

Brock Boeser Remains in Vancouver on Seven-Year Deal
Conor Garland

Signs New Six-Year Deal with Canucks
Thatcher Demko

Signs Three-Year Extension with Canucks
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary Agrees to Seven-Year Extension with Capitals
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
MLB

Brewers-Mets Postponed on Tuesday
MLB

Tigers-Nationals Postponed on Tuesday
Zach Neto

Returns to Tuesday's Lineup
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
MLB

Padres-Phillies Postponed on Tuesday
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Hunter Goodman

Back Behind the Dish on Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Jason Day

is a Fine Play With Limited Upside at John Deere Classic
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Luke Clanton

Looks to Have Another Strong Week at TPC Deere Run
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Sacramento Kings

Dennis Schroder Set to Join Sacramento
Boston Celtics

Luke Kornet Agrees to Contract With San Antonio
Jonas Valančiūnas

Nuggets Trade for Center Jonas Valanciunas
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Signs Massive Extension With Oklahoma City
New York Knicks

Knicks Pick Up Guerschon Yabusele
NFL

Negotiations on 18-Game Season Not Expected Until Next Year
Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner Leaves Indiana, Signs With Milwaukee
Tyler Boyd

Steelers Have Talked With Tyler Boyd
Darren Waller

Coming Out of Retirement to Play for Dolphins
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF