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Analysis of five fantasy football quarterback sleepers to target late. These QBs are undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper 2022 drafts.
Once you reach the late rounds of drafts, everyone wants to draft high-upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can afford to take risks on a variety of different players, including prospects, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even skilled players with potential playing time concerns.
It's essential to have at least a handful of sleeper targets at each position heading into your fantasy football drafts, no matter the format. Here are some late-round quarterbacks for you to consider drafting this season.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific NFL players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2022 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 300+ of our 2022 player outlooks, along with many other premium articles and tools available exclusively in our 2022 Draft Kit.
Editor's Note: Find sleeper picks, undervalued ADPs, and draft targets to help you dominate your fantasy football drafts. Try our free who to draft tool for personalized recommendations.
Trey Lance, 49ers, Fantasy Football Outlook
Ignore all the noise around Jimmy Garoppolo possibly being the 49ers' starting quarterback come Week 1 of the 2022 season. San Francisco didn't trade a haul for the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to select Trey Lance and have him sit for two years being Garoppolo. Here's why he'll be successful as the starter, at least from a fantasy football perspective.
Last season, Lance started just two games and played a half of a third game. If you take the stats from all three games, he averaged a respectable 18 fantasy points per game. That would have been good for QB13 on the season, and that was with playing just a half in one of the games.
Lance completed just 57.1% of his passes in those three games for 199.3 yards per game. He threw four total touchdowns and two interceptions. The difference-maker, however, is Lance's rushing ability. He rushed 10.3 times for 53.7 yards per game.
He didn't score a single rushing touchdown in those three games but still managed to put up high-end QB2 numbers. Last season, Jalen Hurts performed similarly in his 15 starts to Lance in his three games played. Hurts averaged just north of 200 passing yards per game, completed just 61.3% of his passes, and had nearly a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio.
His QB rating was just 87.2, compared to Lance who had a higher QB rating of 97.3. Yet, the 52.3 rushing yards on 9.3 attempts per game and 10 total touchdowns on the ground propelled Hurts to a QB6 finish in his first year as a full-time starter. Lance may not score 10 rushing touchdowns, but if he's going to average anywhere close to 10 rushing attempts per game, he's bound to score using his legs.
And don't forget the 49ers have arguably two of the most impactful skill players on the offensive side of the ball in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Those rushing yards and rushing touchdowns alone will give him a floor of a low-end QB1 in 2022.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins, Fantasy Football Outlook
Tua Tagovailoa the fifth pick in the 2019 NFL Draft has underperformed in his first two years. Whether the reason is health (he started nine games in 2020 and 12 in 2021), or coaching (defensive minded head coach Brian Flores) or his supporting cast (his offensive line was historically bad) time will tell. This is his make-or-break season.
Last season Tagovailoa played behind an offensive line that was ranked 32 according to Pro Football Focus. The line gave up 235 pressures (league leading), 40 sacks (19th) and had the worst pass blocking efficiency score in the NFL. Tagovailoa finished the season ranked QB25 in fantasy points per game. Statistically speaking he had 388 passing attempts, 263 completions, 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, a 6.8 yards per average while rushing for 128 yards with three touchdowns on 42 attempts.
The Dolphins offense finished 22nd in points scored and 25th in offensive yards. For the upcoming season, the Dolphins have hired an offensive minded head coach in Mike McDaniel, who has spent his last five seasons with the San Francisco Niners, first as the run game coordinator, then last year as the offensive coordinator.
They have added pieces around Tagovailoa, including left tackle Terron Armstead, pass catching running back Chase Edmonds and famously during free agency speedster Tyreek Hill. Tagovailoa is the classic boom or bust candidate this season. In his two years he has yet to average more than 14 fantasy points per game.
Last season nine quarterbacks averaged 20 fantasy points per game, Tagovailoa averaged 13.9. Although he now has both Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki, he his career average aDot is 7.6 (34th in the league) and he is ranked 31st in throwing at the intermediate level, per PFF. In 2021 he threw 98 passes of 10-19 yards, 30 passes of 20-29 yards, 11 passes of 30-39 yards, six passes of 40-49 yards and three passes of 50 plus yards.
His 6.8 yards per average was ranked 26th. His deep ball stats are slightly less worrisome due to the ability of Hill and Waddle yards after the catch. In 2021 Hill averaged 6.8 yards after the catch and Waddle led all Dolphins' receivers with 4.22 yards after the catch. That's the boom, there are reasons he could be a bust.
First time head coach McDaniel is expected to bring a version of the West Coast offense to Miami. The addition of both Edmonds and Raheem Mostert suggest it will be heavy run game with an emphasis on play-action passing. And there is the schedule, the Dolphins early on will face New England, Baltimore, and Buffalo.
Buffalo in 2021 was first against the pass yielding 176.7 average passing yards per game, New England was fourth giving up 193.8 passing yards per game and Baltimore, although 32nd giving up the most passing yards per game (278.9), last season versus Baltimore, Tagovailoa passed for 158 yards on eight completions for 12.3 fantasy points. Tagovailoa's current ADP is 11.07. Acquiring him in the 11th round in redraft leagues isn't terrible, but beware in Best Ball with Teddy Bridgewater waiting in the wings.
Justin Fields, Bears, Fantasy Football Outlook
The Chicago Bears entered last year with rookie quarterback Justin Fields sitting on the bench and starting veteran Andy Dalton instead. Of course, that never made sense and was going to change at some throughout the season--and obviously, having drafted Fields with the 11th-overall pick in the first round, that was probably the right move to make as soon as the year hit Week 2.
The growing pains were massive for Fields as he didn't even top eight fantasy points n any of his first four starts for the Bears. From that point on, though, and barring a couple of stinkers against Tampa Bay and Baltimore, Fields completed a much better and promising second half of the season before getting off the field for the remainder of the year by Week 16, thus missing three games.
Starting in Week 6 and up until he got done for the season, Fields averaged a 14.6 FPPG (that includes mediocre outings of 3.2 and 3.5 FP against TB/BAL) while showcasing above-average rushing chops on top of his passing.
However, the latter part of his skill set should improve next season if Fields wants to keep starting games and build a strong NFL career. Fields threw 10 interceptions to just seven touchdowns, the second-worst ratio among QBs with at least 200 pass attempts last year.
Another concerning point was the lack of pass plays by the Bears with Fields on the gridiron: the rookie attempted just 270 total passes and fewer than 25 per game, the lowest figure among the same group of players. The Bears receivers all had down years--yes, including now-gone Allen Robinson II--but Fields should do a little bit more anyway.
It's reasonable to project Fields for a top-24 finish in 2022 if he completes the season without missing any start and a potential high-end QB2 finish if his rushing prowess and tricks click, helping his overall numbers.
Matt Ryan, Colts, Fantasy Football Outlook
After 14 glorious seasons as the cornerstone of the Atlanta Falcons franchise, Ryan was traded to the Indianapolis Colts this offseason. The change of scenery provides an exciting new chapter for the 37-year-old Ryan as the lowly Falcons were weighing down his fantasy worth. He failed to break the 4,000-yard barrier for the first time since 2010 last season, and his 20 touchdown tosses were the second-lowest output of his storied career.
His below-par numbers had more to do with Julio Jones being traded to Tennessee and Calvin Ridley missing most of the season than it did with poor play on his part. Ryan should be buoyed by the chance to quarterback a playoff contender. He will also get protected by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and have rushing champion Jonathan Taylor keeping defenses from keying on receivers while providing perfect play-action pass opportunities.
Ryan has 1,000-yard breakout star Michael Pittman as his No. 1 WR, but it is anybody's guess who the No. 2 or No. 3 receivers on the Colts will be in 2022, so that is disconcerting. Ryan's numbers will go up with the improved cast around him, but because he is in a run-first offense with a receiving corps that lacks depth he appears to be a QB2 who could give fantasy managers 4,200 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, but probably not much more.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars, Fantasy Football Outlook
The Jaguars can't be any worse than they were a season ago. The Urban Meyer experiment was a disaster, Travis Etienne didn't play a single snap, D.J. Chark got hurt early in the season, and suddenly Trevor Lawrence found himself in an awful environment for a rookie quarterback. But there's a new regime in town, led by head coach Doug Pederson, who made magic happen in Philadelphia with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles just a few short years ago. The offense surrounding Lawrence looks a lot different now than it did a year ago. They replaced Chark with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram, while also bolstering the offensive line by adding All-Pro guard Brandon Scherff.
Last season, the Jaguars played with little pace, averaging just 60.5 plays per game, the fourth-least in the league. Under Pederson, the Eagles averaged 66.7 plays per game between 2016 and 2020. That number would have been good for the fifth-most in the league last season. The up-tempo style of play should help Lawrence get into a better rhythm this season. That rhythm didn't exist last season, and it showed up in his subpar numbers. Lawrence averaged just 12.7 fantasy points per game, fewer than spot starters Mike White, Geno Smith, Tyrod Taylor, and Trevor Siemian. But there's hope for the former number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Wentz was also not very good his rookie season in Philadelphia, throwing for just 236.4 yards per game with a 1.1 touchdown to interception ratio. Lawrence was even worse, but we can chalk that up to the dysfunction that existed last season in Jacksonville. And much like Wentz, Lawrence has sneaky wheels for a big quarterback, rushing 4.3 times per game for a total of 334 yards and two scores as a rookie. If Wentz could go from averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game as a rookie to 21.8 fantasy points per game in his second year, so can Trevor Lawrence. You won't find a quarterback with as much upside going as late as he does in drafts this upcoming season.
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