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Todd McGill's DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2025 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Picks for daily fantasy golf based on course history
It was an eventful week at Bay Hill this past week as Russell Henley had a late charge on Sunday with a chip-in eagle on the par-5 16th hole to edge Collin Morikawa by a single stroke. It was a dramatic finish at a course known for producing such occasions, and with many of the PGA Tour's top talent finding their way into the mix at some point over the four days, it sets the stage for what could be an epic week at TPC Sawgrass for this week's Players Championship.
Highly regarded as golf's fifth major, The Players is one of the best events to add to a resume. It consistently produces top-notch leaderboards and is one of the most visible tournaments on the schedule. Like The Masters, golf fans can consume as much content as possible from featured groups, dedicated hole broadcasts, and more over these four days. If you've been waiting for a meaningful event to follow along from start to finish, look no further. Horses at this course are tough to nail down historically, so prepare for unexpected names to make an appearance. However, as Scottie Scheffler has proven the past two years, repeat success at the Stadium Course is possible.
Horse For The Course is an article highlighting players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For some of the favorite DFS plays of the week, check out the Core Four article written by my buddy, Joe Nicely, here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using the Promo Code TDG for an extra discount at checkout!
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2025 Players Championship
Last season, Scottie Scheffler became the first player in tournament history to successfully defend. He is returning this year to the focus of all eyes to see if he can make it three in a row. With his game still struggling to get going, there should certainly be players hopeful that this week has a different outcome. Having repeat success at TPC Sawgrass is difficult, especially in the tune of three-straight victories. So, while I will never be naive enough to think Scheffler can't find the gumption to pull it off, the likelihood of it happening seems extremely low.
Scoring has been much lower in the past two iterations, with last year's -20 under being the lowest four-day total since Greg Norman's unfathomable -24 under par score in 1994. With heavy rains pounding the Ponte Vedra area to start the week, it will be difficult for the grounds crew to get the course set up as punishing as they'd like.
As many top players are rounding into excellent form, this will likely be their stiffest competition until Augusta. Considering the last six winners of this event haven't finished outside the top 25 in that year's Masters Tournament speaks volumes for the importance of paying attention for no other reason than in preparation for the first week in April. Golf season is officially back!
You can find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles and Player News/Matchup Outlook Posts to help you win big!
The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass
Par 72- 7,352 | Greens: Tifsport Bermudagrass | Designed By: Pete Dye
Like I've already mentioned, finding repeated success at TPC Sawgrass is harder than most other venues on the PGA Tour. The layout benefits guys who move the ball from right to left, but it will require a mixed bag of shots throughout the round to get the most out of it. In other words, this is a ball-striker's paradise that rewards accuracy much more than brute strength.
Unlike the long iron importance that has been a mainstay at events over the last month or so, the Stadium Course features more shorter irons and wedges into greens. That is partly the reason for such close leaderboards. But softer conditions in recent years have also aided in bunching things together, as the ultimate separator of navigating the twists and turns of these holes becomes less important.
This isn't exactly a place that needs sub-70 rounds for four straight days, but the lower the scores get, the more pressing it becomes to have at least one super-low day on the week. Six of the last seven winners have recorded one round of 65 or better during their run.
Recent Players Championship Winners
- 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-20)
- 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
- 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
- 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
- 2020: Canceled (COVID)
The Horse
Scottie Scheffler
- Notable Finishes: 1st ('23 & '24)
This feels like deja vu from seven days ago, but that should tell you how dominant Scottie Scheffler has been in Florida in recent memory. He's tamed TPC Sawgrass better than many throughout the history of this event, and until the outcomes change course in a very negative way, he's likely to be seen as the top dog at this stop on the schedule for years to come.
For anyone with more than one start, he leads the field in total strokes gained at the Stadium Course (+2.474). Interestingly, he doesn't rank inside the top five for any specific strokes gained metrics, but the body of work across the board is incredible. If you're looking for the most capable player this week, it starts with the world number one.
The Ponies
Hideki Matsuyama
- Notable Finishes: 5th ('23), T6 ('24)
Coming off his two best finishes in this event the past two seasons, Hideki Matsuyama returns to The Players looking for a victory that has eluded him throughout his career. It is still frustrating to know what could have been in 2020, having had the early lead before the event was canceled due to the pandemic.
This year presents another opportunity to get the proverbial monkey off his back. The 33-year-old has been off with his ball striking lately but is posting quality finishes, having gone T25-T13-T22 over his last three starts. He'll need the iron play to return to the level we're used to seeing from him here (averaging +1.165 in strokes gained on approach at the Stadium Course over the last 10 rounds) if he hopes to have another strong performance.
Si Woo Kim
- Notable finishes: 1st ('17), T6 ('24)
Coming off a T6 here a year ago, Si Woo Kim has had much success at TPC Sawgrass; however, that has come at infrequent times throughout his career. He is third in the field in strokes gained on approach at The Stadium Course over the past four seasons (+1.356), and given the impressive 15'1" proximity from 50-125 yards (ranked 16th on the PGA Tour), he's doing all the right things to find success again.
The South Korean has been stringing together nice finishes lately, having not fallen out of the top 25 in his last four starts. Unfortunately, exactly how he's getting things done hasn't been as consistent, meaning that ball striking hasn't always been the path to success. That won't be much of an option this week, so how that part of his game performs will play the largest part in where he will find himself on the leaderboard.
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Shane Lowry
- Notable Finishes: 8th ('21), T13 ('22)
It has only been within the last few years that Shane Lowry has found real success at TPC Sawgrass. He'd only made two cuts in the five starts before 2020, but he has amassed a top 10, a top 15, and a top 20 in three of the four years since. In the group of players with more than one start in this event over the last five seasons, he is sixth in the field in strokes gained on approach at the Stadium Course (+1.186).
Lowry is decimating fields with his iron play in 2025, ranking 15th on the season in strokes gained on approach (+0.650). He didn't have the weekend at Bay Hill that he wanted after leading through 36 holes, but if that form has managed to hang around, he will be in a good position to make a run again this week.
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