RADIO
Hello, folks! Welcome back to "Horse For The Course." Despite an elite field and a major-championship-caliber golf course, the Wells Fargo Championship turned into something of a snooze-fest, as Wyndham Clark blitzed the competition for his first career win on the PGA Tour.
After the elevated activities at Quail Hollow last week, things are decidedly more, um, workmanlike this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson. The PGA Tour's rank and file head to Texas and TPC Craig Ranch for what's expected to be a shootout.
"Horse For The Course" is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week, check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our excellent PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2023 AT&T Byron Nelson
With the PGA Championship on the horizon next week and the Wells Fargo Championship now in the rearview, the AT&T Byron Nelson is what fans of the NFL would call a "sandwich game." Many of the world's top golfers have elected to take the week off to tune up for the year's second major championship.
A longstanding Tour event, the AT&T Byron Nelson has lost a bit of its luster over the years. While its relatively new home at TPC Craig Ranch has brought some much-needed stability to the tournament, the course is the definition of a "birdie-fest" layout. The field can be considered lacking overall, probably in large part to next week's looming major championship.
Though we don't have a ton of depth in the Nelson field, it's not entirely devoid of star power. Texans Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth headline a group that will attempt to wrestle the Nelson title away from course specialist K.H. Lee, a player who's won both editions of this tournament held at TPC Craig Ranch. In addition to the hometown boys, Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jason Day are among those currently scheduled to tee it up this week.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Par 72 - 7,468 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass, Designed By: Tom Weiskopf
TPC Craig Ranch moved into the big leagues a couple of years ago by holding the AT&T Byron Nelson after the event's failed experiment at Trinity Forest Golf Club. As part of the TPC network, the course located in McKinney offers a dependable level of quality but it has not been a challenge for the game's top pros in the two years it has been on the schedule.
When digging into the nuts and bolts of Craig Ranch, golfers' ability to score on Par-5s is crucial, as there are four on the course, and they must take advantage of them this week. Approach shots of over 200 yards spike heavily on this layout, with nearly 35% of approach shots coming from 200+ in last year's edition, a percentage that dwarfs the PGA Tour average of 22.9%. Five of Craig Ranch's Par-4s measure between 450-500 yards, so players who score well on lengthy Par-4s are worth considering on this slate.
We toss the term "birdie fest" around a lot in PGA DFS, but TPC Craig Ranch stands as the textbook definition...easy to hit fairways, generous greens, and reachable Par-5s. Basically, if a player isn't making birdies on this layout, he's losing ground to the field.
Recent AT&T Byron Nelson Winners & Scoring Info
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25)
- 2020: N/A
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23) *At Trinity Forest
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23) *At Trinity Forest
- Average Winning Score Last Five Years: -25.5 *At TPC Craig Ranch
The Horse
Jordan Spieth
*UPDATE: Jordan Spieth has withdrawn with a wrist injury
- Event Scoring Average: 68.74 (11 career starts)
- Notable Course History: 2nd (2022), T9 ('21)
- DraftKings Price: $10,600 FanDuel Price: $12,100
Thanks to both hometown and sponsorship ties, Jordan Spieth has been a regular at the AT&T Byron Nelson for years. TPC Craig Ranch has suited the native Texan well, as he scored a solo runner-up finish in last year's edition after being tied for the opening-round lead and a T9 finish in 2021.
Despite a missed cut in last week's Wells Fargo Championship, Spieth has still put together a terrific overall 2023 resume. He's posted top-four finishes in four of his last six starts and has been repeatedly knocking on the door of a victory.
Those elite results can be attributed to Spieth's newfound consistency with his irons. The three-time major champion has gained strokes on Approach in seven of his last eight outings and grades out second to just Scottie Scheffler in this week's field in SG: Approach (L24).
Always an explosive scorer, the Texan ranks first in this week's field in Birdies or Better Gained (L24), and his 4.31 birdies per round this season is nearly one birdie above the PGA Tour average of 3.69 per round. That ability to go low will be needed at TPC Craig Ranch, a layout that has been one of the PGA Tour's easiest-scoring courses since joining the schedule two years ago.
The Ponies
Scottie Scheffler
- Event Scoring Average: 68.50 (Four career starts)
- Notable Course History: T15 ('22), T47 ('21)
- DraftKings Price: $11,900 FanDuel Price: $12,400
While not quite a "Jon Rahm at the Mexico Open" situation, Scheffler is undoubtedly the class of this rather underwhelming Nelson field and must be in the conversation this week as a result.
Despite his current superstar status and the fact that he's been constantly jostling with the aforementioned Rahm for the title of the world's No. 1 golfer this year, Scheffler's track record in the TPC Craig Ranch version of the Nelson is surprisingly underwhelming. The native Texan posted just a T47 in his first go-'round Craig Ranch, although he did markedly improve in last year's edition, notching a T15.
Even with those ho-hum results in prior starts, it's nearly impossible to ignore Scheffler in any given week, much less this one, as he enters the Nelson as an overwhelming betting favorite (around +450 depending on where you look) and appears almost bulletproof this year. He grades our first or second in this field in, among other things, SG: T2G, Total, OTT, APP, and DraftKings points scored (L36).
K.H. Lee
- Event Scoring Average: 66.82 (Three career starts)
- Notable Course History: Win ('22), Win ('21)
- DraftKings Price: $9,200 FanDuel Price: $11,000
You come at the King, you best not miss. For 51 weeks out of the year, K.H. Lee is just an average Tour pro, but when he steps onto this TPC Craig Ranch layout, he becomes the Korean Omar Little.
Much like Omar in the streets of Baltimore, Lee has terrorized fields on this golf course, finishing the last two editions of the Nelson at 25 and 26 under par, respectively, to capture back-to-back titles in this event.
To post those types of scores, everything must be clicking, but Lee's statistical output has spiked in two specific areas in this event: iron play and putting. He's gained a combined 13.5 strokes on Approach and 8.4 strokes putting in the Nelson over the last two years. Yeah...I think it's safe to say he likes this golf course.
While we can probably safely throw recent form straight out the window when talking about "TPC Lee" and TPC Craig Ranch, it is notable that he comes in looking for a three-peat on the heels of finishing last week's Wells Fargo Championship with his best statistical output of the year in two categories, you guessed it, SG: Approach (+3.3 strokes) and SG: Putting (+6.6 strokes). It's all in the game, yo.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Seamus Power
- Event Scoring Average: 69.00 (Five career starts)
- Notable Course History: T17 ('22) T9 ('21)
- DraftKings Price: $8,900 FanDuel Price: $10,500
After putting together the best two-year stretch of his career in 2021 and '22, Seamus Power has returned to earth a bit in 2023, with just one top-25 finish across his last five starts.
However, that result did come in last week's Wells Fargo Championship, an outing in which Power gained 3.9 strokes T2G en route to a T18. He brings that positive momentum to a TPC Craig Ranch layout on which he's thrived and posted strong results (T17 & T9) in each of the last two years.
Power is nothing if not streaky, and is often-times a statistical enigma. While he's been flying under the radar for the last couple of months, don't forget the fact that he's won twice within the past 24 months and ended 2022 as one of the hottest players in the game.
Scott Stallings
- Event Scoring Average: 69.23 (Seven career starts)
- Notable Course History: T25 ('22), T3 ('21)
- DraftKings Price: $7,700 FanDuel Price: $9,700
Like the aforementioned Power, Scott Stallings can be tough to nail down statistically, often going on ball-striking binges only for the faucet to be turned off, seemingly, overnight.
The Tennesean heads to Texas mired in one of those dreaded dry spells, with a T26 at the Masters standing as his last notable finish. However, there is reason for optimism this week, as Stallings has shown himself to be worthy of consideration at TPC Craig Ranch, no matter his recent form.
He carded an impressive T3 in his first trip to Craig Ranch in 2021. That outing came on the heels of going T43/T29/MC in his three lead-in starts. Similar stuff last year, as his T25 in the Nelson was preceded by finishes of MC/MC/T13. So while Stallings has, well, stalled since logging top-25s in three of his first four 2023 starts, he's the type of player with which form isn't a great predictor of success or failure.
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