RADIO
Byron's free PGA betting picks for the 2024 Shriners Children's Open. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets. Where are the best bets this week?
Matt McCarty is the real deal! He becomes only the second person since Jason Gore to win three KFT events, receive his PGA Tour card and then win an event that same year. He got out to an early lead and never seemed to look back on those trying to chase him down through the Utah fairways lined with lava rock. He has super star potential and will be fun to watch blossom on the PGA Tour over the next few years.
This week we are playing golf at altitude in Vegas where driving accuracy, wedge play and some short game will be the key strokes gained metrics we lean into. TPC Summerlin is also a very predictive course based off past success, so those that have played well here in the past, likely see repeated success. If you are out at the event this week, be sure to find my RotoBaller colleague, Spencer Aguiar, and have him by you a drink by telling him that the Model Maniac sent you.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Breaking $100 Results for 2024
It has been a year of two tales, with the outright market eluding us every time we got close to a winner. However, the placement market has been my bread and butter since entering the golf betting industry and it has been crushing for us all year long. People love outrights, and so, I give the people what they want. But, if you REALLY want to profit long term, the placement market is where you want to be following me.
- Outrights -67% ROI -$209
- Placements +10% ROI +$231
- Head to Heads -17% ROI -$22
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Outrights $10
We are rolling out four guys with some change left in our pocket to snag one or two live outrights after the first round or two if need be. I will update this article after each round and also publish the live adds on my X account (@TheModelManiac) and in the RotoBaller discord.
Taylor Pendrith $2.86 +2500
Pendrith ranks first in my upside model, yet is double the odds of Tom Kim, who, yes, is looking to win this event for the third time in as many starts, but Kim's game appears to be in the worst form of the three years he has teed it up here. Meanwhile, Taylor finished third at this event a year ago and has rattled off seven finishes inside the top 23 in all but one of his last octet of starts. In fact, his run of form since April has been remarkably consistent for the lanky Canadian, with ELVEN finishes inside the top 23 in his last 14. Incredible stuff!
This form is backed up by his round-by-round strokes gained all ranking inside the top 23 for this field, playing great golf Thursday through Sunday. On the ball striking front, he remains inside the top 8 as well, despite his OTT and APP ranking 14th and 13th respectively. By now you should be getting a really calm, consistent feeling of control and repeatability from the President Cupper. We get a delightful number on a delectable player, looking for his second win of the season! Go TP!
Seamus Power $2.06 +3500
Seamus is Powering up the recent form metrics with three top 11 placings in as many starts which are his three best finishes of the season, not quite getting fully inside the top 10 just yet, though (T10, T11, T11). However, Power ranges in predictability since being on tour, not showing us really any form before his win in Bermuda last year. However, after that win, he added another half-dozen top 25 finishes in consecutive starts before flailing out for the remainder of the 2023 season. What this tells us is that when he finds his groove, he tends stay in it, with eight top 21 finishes in nine starts from October 2021 to February 2022.
He gets on these runs and we want to capitalize on them early after seeing these last three starts of his. What is even more enticing about Seamus, is his propensity to excel on short positional venues, with three top-5 finishes in the 2022 season coming at the Sony Open and Dell Match Play, winning the Butterfield and top-fiving at Mayakoba and Sea Island in 2022. All of these venues don't eclipse 7,100 yards and we now get a TPC Summerlin that played 7,074 yards last year.
Ben Griffin $1.65 +4500
Ben Griffin gained eight strokes on approach at the Wyndham Championship in August (four starts ago) and then gained +4.5 with his irons in Utah last week. There are only four golfers in this field with better iron play than Griffin, who will be looking to get his first PGA Tour win under his belt. Matt Kuchar's orphaned child almost won the Butterfield Bermuda at the end of 2022 (gifting Seamus that win with a water ball down the stretch), but followed that disappointing end with three top-5s since, most recently finishing T5 at the John Deere Classic, T7 at the Wyndham and T11 last week. He is knocking on the door of victory and if his putter can compliment some incredible iron play this week, he has a fantastic shot at winning this week.
Daniel Berger $1.03 +7000
I am tempted to pull in a writeup I did for Daniel Berger back in 2022, where he had a five shot lead heading into Sunday of the Honda Classic, ultimately finishing fourth with a putter than made nothing longer than an 18-inch putt for the first 15 holes. This is important for two reasons as he is probably the most talented golfer in this field (outside of Tom Kim) and his skill set really suits short positional venues. So much so that Berger leads this field in *good shots inside 100-150 yards, where we will see a third of approach shots come from at this course.
Berger lead the Honda field in scrambling back in 2022 before he missed all of 2023 with a back injury. That part of his game, along with the putter, disappeared once he reappeared this year. However, he has gained around the green in three of his last five, gained putting in three of his last six and has gained strokes in all four major strokes gained categories in each of his last pair of starts at the Sanderson and Black Desert. We are seeing ol Danny Boy reemerge towards the end of the season, and after having the 36-hole lead at the Sanderson Farms Championship, he got his first taste of leaderboard pressure which should serve him well when he wins this week at a very appetizing +7000.
Placements $85
For those of you new to this article, this is really where we make our money! Betting roughly $85 a week on placements this year, we are up over $200 this year so far. Hopefully we can continue to keep that momentum going to finish out the year while adding a few outrights onto the profit side of things too!
Here are the reasons we are betting these golfers based off their:
- Model Ranking
- Historical Profitability
- Historical Finish Rates
The Farewell Fiver $5
This is just a little $5 fun round one 3-ball parlay ($1) and round robin ($1 x 4) to make sure that if we get three of the legs right, we still make some $$$ on the week. All four returns roughly $70.
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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