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Thunder Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 17 NFL games on 12/26/21. His free picks target spreads, totals, and money lines.
What's up football fans and bettors? I'm filling in again this week for my buddy Steve Janik and going to put my NFL betting hat on (I usually wear an NBA betting hat, and a few other hats as well). This is a big ole' slate of games and I think there are a lot of games we could target, but I will do my best to find a few of the absolute best spots.
This is Steve's disclaimer, but I will keep it here as I agree with it wholeheartedly. I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there are so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 17 of the 2021 NFL season. Let's skip all the formalities and get down to business. I hope you enjoy the picks, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Football Team
Sunday 1/2, 1 PM EST | O/U: 43.5
I've been trying to figure out all week what is keeping this spread as close as it is and I haven't been able to figure it out. Yes, Washington is at home and getting some important players back from health and safety protocols, but this team has been trending in the wrong direction now for several weeks. The Eagles handled them two weeks ago 27-17 and are on a three-game winning streak with playoffs hopes within grasp.
Meanwhile, the Football Team has dropped three straight and was embarrassed on national TV Sunday night against the Cowboys as they gave up 56 points - yikes. They have played three different quarterbacks over the last month and have not had much consistency on either side of the ball. They looked poised to finish the season strong at one point, but Washington is trending down in a big way.
I'm always a bit skeptical with the Birds, but I think they are the better team here and I'm willing to bet on them playing well on both sides of the ball and controlling this game from start to finish. I wish it were only three points (and if you can buy a half-point, by all means, do it), but I think Philly wins by a touchdown when it's all settled.
The Pick: Eagles -3.5 (-105, DraftKings)
Detroit Lions (+7) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday 1/2, 4:25 PM EST | O/U: 42.5
The only other time I covered this article, I picked the Lions to cover and they actually won! Despite having a 2-12-1 record this season, did you know the Lions have covered the spread in ten of those games? Yes, they've been the underdog in every game this season and have covered in 2/3 of those games.
Call them tough luck losers or whatever you want to call them, but Detroit has hung with some good teams this season. Their defense is still struggling to get stops, but they've played better of late. Detroit's offense could get a big boost this week if Jared Goff returns in time to play and it's already been established that their star running back D'Andre Swift will play (though no one knows how much).
Seattle has been a major disappointment this year and has nothing to play for here. Meanwhile, Detroit has been playing their guts out for coach Dan Campbell. I think a young, inspired Lions team can hang tough here with Seattle, who has been playing some uninspired football of their own (is Pete Carroll gone in the offseason)?
The Pick: Lions +7 (-115, DraftKings)
NFL Betting Picks - Totals
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7)
Sunday, 12/26, 4:25 PM EST | O/U: 45.5
I'm excited about this game and prepared to see the Packers exact some revenge on the Vikings after dropping their first meeting in a 34-31 shootout. Green Bay is playing for a chance to grab the first-round bye with a win here while Minnesota is basically eliminated from the playoff race with a loss.
Both offenses are highly talented and have been productive units this year. Both offenses should have mismatches against the opposing defenses and I think we get another high-scoring game. The first meeting went 20 points over this total, and I'm not sure why this game wouldn't either. Minnesota has had the best record going over their totals this season (9-6) and they've been in their fair share of shootouts this year. I like the Packers to win, but instead of laying the points, let's just bet on this one getting over its middling total of 45.5.
The Pick: Over 45.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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