RADIO
We roll into October of the last great college football season. The first month was a wild one and it only promises to get better! A couple of teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention and that's the way it should be! I have no interest in a two-loss LSU in a watered-down playoff, which means I will have little to no interest in next season. That makes me profoundly sad.
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I gained a few more points last week that I can start paying off last year's deficit with. Please excuse the mess on the right side of the sheet. I am trying to update it to include my cumulative total for as long as I have done this with the point betting system. I'm going back through years of past articles and updating as I go along. It will be worth it in the end!
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 6 (October 7, 2023)
(12) Oklahoma vs. (3) Texas (-5.5) at Dallas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line opened at 7.5, and I bet it then because I was afraid it would go higher. That means there's a ton of money coming in on the Sooners and I don't know why. Texas has played and beaten two ranked teams already. Oklahoma's claim is a good defense against iffy offenses and holding Iowa State scoreless in the second half. That is not the same.
Oklahoma is still seething at their worst loss in the 117-year history of this rivalry last year. I think Oklahoma hangs around, but I'm a realist. Oklahoma might win this game, but it would take a Texas team making mistakes that they just haven't made this year. I'll be cheering for the Sooners as always, but this is business. Give me Texas, and yes, I hope I'm wrong.
Maryland at (4) Ohio State (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Taulia Tagovailoa's five-touchdown day last week has pushed this line down a couple of points. Maryland's defense is still a sore spot though and the Buckeyes have proven themselves this year. Maryland has never beaten the Buckeyes in eight tries (though they came really close in 2018) and have only stayed within 20 points twice. Give me the Buckeyes.
(23) LSU (-4.5) at (21) Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That SEC Kool-Aid is some strong stuff! LSU's defense had troubles with an Arkansas offense that was embarrassed by A&M last week and was gutted and left for dead in Oxford last week. Luther Burden is going to have a field day on this secondary. Even if Missouri loses, I don't think it's by a touchdown. Missouri doesn't beat themselves. M-I-Z (Z-O-U).
And yes...take the over. The asinine new clock rules will prevent one of these teams from scoring the 65 by themselves, but one could still come close.
Boston College at Army (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boston College isn't equipped to stop this offense. Army by at least a touchdown!
Western Michigan at Mississippi State (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't have a lot of faith in the Bulldogs this year, but the Broncos got smoked by Syracuse and Iowa. Freaking Iowa! Give me the cowbells. Those damn annoying cowbells...
Rutgers at Wisconsin (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has been pulled in many places. Come on, guys. Chez Mellusi is a good part of the Wisconsin offense, but Braelon Allen carried this team last year. The Badgers will be fine. Give me Wisconsin.
Toledo (-19.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Toledo burned me last week and I'm a little sore, but not sore enough to take a UMass team that just got throttled by Arkansas State.
Marshall at North Carolina State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Wolfpack defense has been pretty good so far, but they are going to have to be better against a guy like Rasheen Ali. That said, I don't think Marshall can pass to win and they still only beat Old Dominion by six last week. I have to take the Pack in Raleigh.
UTSA (-14.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is already up three points. That must mean that Vegas thinks Frank Harris is healthy and that De'Corian Clark will return. The Roadrunners had the misfortune of being without Clark and having Harris hobbled through the most important part of their schedule. I'll take UTSA, but lower the bet. I don't trust the half.
Central Michigan (-3.5) at Buffalo
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Buffalo really shouldn't have beaten Akron, but the Chippewas didn't come close to covering a bad Eastern Michigan team. Is Buffalo worse than Eastern Michigan? They can't be, right? Give me Buffalo, but I'm not touching this.
(13) Washington State at UCLA (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Public perception is leaning towards UCLA. Good luck with that. Cougars by a touchdown...at least! I see a lot of sharps on UCLA, but I don't buy it. Dante Moore is going to be really good at some point, but probably not this season. Cameron Ward has already proven that he is the real deal.
Virginia Tech at (5) Florida State (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That's a lot of points for a Florida State team that has turned into Molly Hatchet and is constantly flirting with disaster. The Hokies probably won't win outright, but I won't be shocked if they do. At any rate, this is at least 10 points too many.
(11) Alabama (-1.5) at Texas A&M
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Seriously? I like money. This is like one of those free promo bets for signing up, right? Bama by at least a touchdown.
Syracuse at (14) North Carolina (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm surprised it's not higher. I know the Carolina defense is improved, but by how much? Enough to stop the one-dimensional offense of the Orange. I'll take the Heels.
Purdue at Iowa (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place. I've seen it all the way up to -4 and I've seen it at even money. Shop around and you can find the bet that suits you best. That Iowa defense is legit and Deacon Hill is already as "good" as Cade McNamara. I'll take Iowa. This is the first Iowa quarterback I've been excited about in a decade.
Wake Forest at Clemson (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hey, remember when this was going to be a good one? Then Sam Hartman and D.J. Uiagalelei transferred. Now this overwhelmingly favors Clemson. I'll take the Tigers.
North Texas at Navy (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Games with massively contrasting styles like this one make me nervous. I just don't see the North Texas defense shutting down the Navy run game. I'll take Navy.
Texas State at Louisiana (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ismail Mahdi is going to be a huge problem for the Cajuns. Minnesota ran all over them and Mahdi should do the same. Bobcats outright.
Ball State at Eastern Michigan (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Even the Eagles can't blow this one, can they? I'm lowering the bet because I don't trust them though.
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Beating the Wreck isn't even getting the Falcons any street cred in their own conference! Well, the Redhawks did beat Cincinnati, are at home, and have a stingy defense. I'll take the Falcons, but I'm not touching this.
Kent State at Ohio (-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What? Wow! That's a ton of points, but Kent has only scored 25 points combined in four games against FBS opponents. I'll take Ohio, I guess...
Northern Illinois (-4.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Akron lost to Buffalo last week, who is likely no better than the second-worst team in the conference. Give me the Huskies.
Vanderbilt at Florida (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Gators are going to have problems covering this, even in the Swamp. With Ken Seals back at quarterback for the Commodores, I think they hang around for a while. Give me Vandy.
Central Florida (-1.5) at Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The return of John Rhys Plumlee and Jalon Daniels reportedly out for Kansas has flipped this line. Is Jason Bean that much worse than Daniels? I'm more concerned about the health of Devin Neal.
The UCF run defense was obliterated by K-State last weekend. That's the bigger picture here. I like Kansas outright, even with Plumlee back. Neal and Daniel Hishaw are both good backs with Bean basically being a third running back. KU runs for 300+ and gets a win at the Booth.
South Florida (-3.5) at UAB
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The battle for the green and gold. I'm taking the team with Byrum Brown on it.
Arkansas State at Troy (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was hoping for a lower line after the Red Wolves looked like an actual team against UMass. It's back to reality for the boys from Jonesboro. The men of Troy take this and cover.
Connecticut at Rice (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UConn can't get out of their own way. Give me Rice.
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tulsa mowing down Temple is pyrite. Central Michigan transfer Daniel Richardson took over for high-profile transfer Casey Thompson and looked nearly as good. Tulsa beat Owls last week. Not this week. Give me FAU.
Colorado (-4.5) at Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is going to be a highly entertaining game. Colorado's defense will have no answer for Cam Skattebo. The Sun Devils won't have an answer for the Colorado receivers. Give me Colorado, but the fireworks are going to be a lot of fun to watch.
(20) Kentucky at (1) Georgia (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I have never seen a line drop 10 points without significant injury news, but that's what happened with this one. It opened at -24. I still think it's too high. Give me Kentucky. They won't win, but I think they put a scare into the Bulldogs.
South Alabama (-10.5) at Louisana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Let's see...the Warhawks almost sniped Appalachian State at home last week. This feels high to me. I'll take Monroe.
Old Dominion at Southern Mississippi (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Unfortunately, I think Frank Gore Jr. gets overshadowed again, this time by Kadarius Calloway. Give me the Monarchs, but I'm leaving this one alone. Both teams are inconsistent as hell.
(2) Michigan (-18.5) at Minnesota
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Little Brown Jug hasn't been much of a battle. It won't be this year either. Give me Michigan.
(10) Notre Dame (-6.5) at (25) Louisville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I'm convinced that Louisville is ranked for the sole purpose of giving the Irish another victory over a ranked team. The Louisville defense has looked okay since being embarrassed by Georgia Tech, but okay won't cut it against the Irish. Notre Dame by double figures.
Arkansas at (16) Mississippi (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I want to say that this is too many, but it probably isn't. K.J. Jefferson has regressed and I still don't think Raheim Sanders is 100%. Give me Ole Miss.
Georgia Tech at (17) Miami (FL) (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bees just lost to Bowling Green at home. Give me Miami.
(24) Fresno State (-5.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Laramie is tough, but I still like the Bulldogs here. I'm just lowering the bet.
Texas Tech (-1.5) at Baylor
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yeah...not with Blake Shapen back, you bozos. Baylor by at least a touchdown.
TCU (-6.5) at Iowa State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not sure I buy this. Iowa State has looked a lot better the last couple of weeks (well...as good as you can look in a 30-point loss). The Cyclones play tough defense just like West Virginia does. I'll take ISU outright.
Colorado State (-2.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bettors are out there acting like Cooper Legas is the backup. He was the starter for the first couple of games this season and has a wealth of experience. I like the Rams, but I'm not going crazy with this. It's a losable game.
San Jose State at Boise State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hey, remember when the Spartans were a Mountain West sleeper behind Chevan Cordeiro? It feels like so long ago. The Smurfs protect their turf.
(15) Oregon State (-9.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Beavers defense locked down Nate Johnson last week. Sam Jackson V is the same type of player, albeit with a little more experience. Not enough. Give me the Beavers.
Arizona at (9) USC (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't know that Arizona stays within a single possession this year, but they might. They did against a good Washington team last week and we all know how beleaguered the USC defense is. I'll take Arizona. This is too many.
We have a light week with only 49 FBS vs. FBS games this weekend. I had another solid week last week. I went a little more out on a limb this week with three max bets and another six four-pointers. I only chickened with three minimum bets, which means I'm heavy in the middle again with 19 two-point bets and 18 three-pointers. Good luck out there!
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