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The Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Age Cliff - Player Outlooks and Draft Values of 3 Veteran WRs (2025)

Mike Evans - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Aidin evaluates three veteran players facing the fantasy football wide receiver age cliff. Are Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, and Cooper Kupp good draft values or bust candidates in 2025?

33. That is the number of wide receivers in NFL history who managed to record at least 200 PPR points in their age-32 season. It's quite a steep decline from the number of wideouts who achieved this feat at the age of 31 (54) and 30 (66).

However, here's an interesting observation: out of the 1,186 WRs who played in the NFL at the age of 27 (usually considered the beginning of an NFL player's prime), 131 of them had a 200-PPR-point season. That gives us odds of 11.04%. Out of 286 WRs who played at the age of 32, 33 of them had a 200-PPR-point season, which gives us slightly better odds of 11.54%. So, despite the old adage, 32-year-old WRs have a slightly higher chance of having a standout fantasy season than 27-year-old wideouts. While the quantity of wide receivers decreases at this age, the quality is still high. You still have to be a good player to compete at the highest level at the age of 32.

Without further ado, let's look at three veterans who will play in their age-32 season this year (Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, and Cooper Kupp) and determine whether you should target or fade them in 2025 fantasy football.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

 

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Evans is the gift that keeps on giving. Since being drafted in 2014, no wide receiver has recorded more standard fantasy points than Evans (1909.4). In eight of his 11 seasons, Evans has been a top-10 standard fantasy WR, including a WR1 finish in 2016.

Evans' greatest achievement was possibly his 2024 season, as he finished as the standard WR7 despite missing three games due to injury. He was elite during the fantasy playoffs, finishing as a top-3 WR in all scoring formats from Week 15 to 17.

He also extended his 1,000-yard streak on the final play of the season, and now he shares the record of the most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with the legendary Jerry Rice. Rice gave Evans his blessing to break the record in the offseason, saying, "You know that I'm pulling for you, right?"

Since Baker Mayfield arrived in Tampa Bay, Evans has helped him go from the brink of an early retirement to a fantasy superstar. Only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts have recorded more fantasy points than Mayfield during this span, and his transformation into a fantasy superstar is largely down to Evans.

Mayfield has targeted Evans 246 times (16th among WRs since 2023), and Evans' 9.2 yards per target is comparable to some of the best WRs in the world today, such as Ja'Marr Chase (9.1), CeeDee Lamb (8.8), and Tyreek Hill (9.4).

Among the NFL's elite wideouts (150+ catches since 2023), Evans ranks third in his QB's passer rating when targeted (111.1), is tied for first in touchdowns with Ja'Marr Chase (24), and ranks first in yards before the catch per reception (11.2), and average depth of target when targeted (12.9).

Evans' game has never relied too much on YAC, which is a good thing considering his age. Wideouts who rely more on air yards are generally more consistent on a year-to-year basis than YAC WRs, as evident by some of the league's best YAC WRs, such as Deebo Samuel Sr., Kupp, and Evans' teammate Chris Godwin, struggling with injuries in recent years.

Evans' WR20 ADP is a bargain for a player who is chasing a record and has a good QB who regularly targets him. He is currently cheaper than the likes of Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin, and even Rashee Rice, who is expected to be suspended for multiple games this year. If there has ever been a 32-year-old WR to target in fantasy football, it's Evans in 2025.

Verdict: Target

 

Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots

After breaking out in Minnesota and becoming a star WR1 in Buffalo, Stefon Diggs embraced a new challenge in 2024, signing with the Houston Texans. On paper, the Texans had the best WR room in the league heading into the season, but everything fell apart.

Nico Collins and Tank Dell both suffered injuries, and Diggs' season also came to a premature end after just eight weeks due to an ACL tear. His injury didn't stop the Patriots from offering Diggs a three-year, $63.5 million contract, as they hope that he can be a worthy WR1 for Drake Maye.

Diggs only played three games as the Texans' undisputed WR1 last year, as he caught 16 passes from 23 targets for 181 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 13.2 PPR points in that span, which is good for around 224 PPR points in a full season.

Now, will Diggs even play a full season this year? It was initially reported that he would miss the first few weeks of the season; however, Diggs made a miraculous recovery and has just been cleared for full participation at training camp, according to The Athletic's Dianna Russini.

However, we must consider that returning to your best after an ACL tear is not easy. Sure, it has gotten easier in recent seasons due to the advancements in medical technology, but it's especially tough for WRs.

In 2022, Chris Godwin was the only notable WR in recent seasons who managed to record 1000+ yards the season after tearing his ACL, but he was just 25 when that injury occurred.

Diggs has had 965 total touches throughout his NFL career, which is remarkably high. Only 25 WRs have had more touches in their entire careers, and just 14 of these wideouts have managed to record 1,000 yards during their age-32 season.

Of those 14 WRs, none of them were coming off ACL tears, and only one of them (2024 Davante Adams, who was traded mid-season) achieved this feat while playing on a different team than his age-31 season.

Diggs could shock the world and form a dynamic duo with Maye, and his WR42 ADP is quite appealing. However, there are so many things working against him.

He's on a new team, coming off a torn ACL after over 900 career touches, with a QB who has only started 12 career games. The risk is simply too much.

Verdict: Fade

 

Cooper Kupp, Seattle Seahawks

Kupp's 2021 season was insane. While many recognized Kupp as a solid player, he had never made a Pro Bowl in his career before he excelled in the Rams' Super Bowl-winning campaign.

His 439.5 PPR points are the most by any WR in a season, and only four players have ever had a better PPR fantasy season than 2021 Kupp.

Kupp picked up right where he left off in 2022, as he started the year by averaging 24.8 PPR points per game after the first nine weeks before suffering a high ankle sprain.

Since then, he has dealt with more ankle sprains and a hamstring injury, and has only recorded a combined 1,447 receiving yards over the last two seasons.

At his peak, Kupp was one of a kind. He was excellent both before and after the catch, as he averaged 7.6 yards before the catch per reception and 5.8 YAC per reception in 2021. However, those numbers have declined steadily and fallen to 6.6 and 4.0, respectively, in 2024.

Now, Kupp finds himself on a new team, back in his home state of Washington. Kupp is expected to mentor young Pro Bowl wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba and help new QB Sam Darnold prove his doubters wrong.

Just like Diggs, Kupp has many things going against him. A new team, a new role, a new offensive coordinator (who has never coached a top-10 passing team as an OC), a very long injury history, and a new quarterback who is coming off the only good season of his career.

His WR43 ADP is quite cheap; however, it's far too risky to take him unless you're super confident about your other draft picks.

Verdict: Fade



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