RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 16 of the 2025 season. He identifies players with rising and falling fantasy values.
You made it to the fantasy football semifinals (most likely)! Congratulations, you're one step closer to being crowned a champion.
As we do each week, we'll take a look at whose stock is rising and whose stock is falling coming out of the previous week. There were a lot of injuries coming out of Week 15, but we'll avoid those impacts for now.
Our Week 15 risers were right on the money (Harold Fannin Jr., Blake Corum, Kyle Pitts Sr., and Devin Neal). It was similar to our fallers (Romeo Doubs and Quinshon Judkins). Here's whose stock is rising and falling heading into the fantasy football semifinals in Week 16.
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Week 16 Fantasy Football Risers
Rashid Shaheed, WR, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks finally played in a competitive game in Week 15. That meant more passing and more routes for the receivers.
It also meant season-highs in catches (5), yards (74), and targets (7) for Shaheed with his new team.
It's taken some time for him to get acclimated in Seattle, but it appears he's taken over the WR2 spot from Cooper Kupp.
In the last two weeks, Shaheed's advanced metrics and utilization tell the story.
Rashid Shaheed first 4 games with Seattle: 4 catches, 37 yards
Rashid Shaheed last 2 games: 9 catches, 141 yards pic.twitter.com/R1MjWYsDrk
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) December 16, 2025
Per Fantasy Points Data, in his last two games, Shaheed has a 2.71 yards per route run, a 23.8% first-read target share, a 33.9% air yards share, and has 27.1% of the team's total passing yards.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the clear lead dog in Seattle, but there's room for another pass-catcher, and that appears to be Shaheed, especially in trailing or competitive game scripts.
Another competitive matchup is likely in Week 16, when the Seahawks host the division-rival Rams.
Expect Sam Darnold to air it out against a pass-funnel Rams defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (78.2) and the fewest rushing touchdowns (3) this season.
That will benefit the Seahawks' new WR2, Shaheed.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In his first game back since Week 7 (and really since he was fully healthy in Week 3), Evans put up season-highs in receptions (6), yards (132), and targets (12).
He did so on just a 55% snap share, running a route on just 65% of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks.
It was clear as day that Evans is who Mayfield trusts. He led the team with six first downs (0.231 first downs per route run) and a 38.1% first-read target share.
Welcome back, Mike Evans 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/9bkg7L2pdg
— NFL (@NFL) December 12, 2025
For the season, albeit a small sample size, Evans is third in targets per route run (0.32) behind only Puka Nacua and Smith-Njigba, arguably the two best wide receivers in football.
In Week 16, he'll face a Carolina Panthers team that he has historically crushed in the later weeks of the regular season.
Last season, he averaged eight catches for 107.5 yards on 10.5 targets in two games vs. the Panthers.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants
Tracy Jr. was banged up in Week 13 heading into the Giants' bye week.
It wasn't clear if he'd get his "starting" job back with how Devin Singletary performed in Week 13, but those questions were put to bed in Week 15, coming out of the bye.
Tracy had a 75% RB opportunity share vs. the Commanders, while Singletary had just a 25% share. The latter had a couple of red zone carries, but Tracy dominated the work.
He turned his 18 touches into 97 yards and two touchdowns, and just looked the part of a feature back.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. goes 12 yards for the score!
WASvsNYG on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/tzidGXc0nj
— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2025
Tracy's 57% route share (via Fantasy Points Data) was also his third-highest rate of the season.
Up next is a home game vs. a Vikings team that has been susceptible to the run on the road, allowing 133.9 rushing yards per game away from U.S. Bank Stadium.
In the year, Minnesota has given up the eighth-most rushing yards per game (107) and rushing touchdowns (12).
At the very least, Tracy will open the game as the lead back, with a chance to dominate running back touches once again in Week 16.
Colby Parkinson, TE, Los Angeles Rams
Parkinson has been a revelation for the Rams since Tyler Higbee went down in Week 11.
The Rams' new TE1 has six touchdowns in his last six games on 13 red zone targets. And in Week 15, he put up a new career-high 75 yards and two touchdowns.
His 86% snap share last week was also a season high. Parkinson tied for second among tight ends in first downs (5) and had a 0.29 targets per route run rate vs. the Lions.
But the biggest reason he's a massive riser heading into Week 16 is the hamstring injury suffered by Davante Adams.
It's unlikely Adams suits up in Week 16 (on Thursday night), which makes Parkinson the number two option for Matthew Stafford.
When it comes to highly productive tight ends, we look for a few things. One, is he athletic? Yes, Parkinson has shown an ability to produce yards after the catch.
Two, does he run deeper routes? Yes, Parkinson has the ninth-highest yards per route run (1.84) among tight ends.
Three, is he the first or second option in the passing game on his team? In Week 16, that answer would be a resounding "yes" if Adams can't go.
Fire him up confidently against a Seahawks team (revenge game) that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season.
Other Fantasy Football Risers:
- Jayden Reed (again, but this time even more so with Christian Watson banged up)
- Courtland Sutton
- Dalton Schultz
- Adonai Mitchell (Brady Cook looked good!)
- Kenneth Gainwell
Week 16 Fantasy Football Fallers
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens shut out the Bengals 24-0 in Week 15, so Henry surely had 20 carries for 150 yards and two touchdowns, right?
Wrong! King Henry had just 11 carries, granted he gained 100 yards, and no scores.
Just 11 carries for the King in a positive game script is odd, especially considering he had 25 carries and two targets the week prior.
He also had a 73% RB opportunity share two weeks ago. Compare that to just a 50% RB opportunity share in Week 15 with Keaton Mitchell and Rasheen Ali firmly in the mix.
Henry's 37% snap share in a positive game script is concerning. What's even more concerning are his two upcoming matchups against tough run defenses in New England and Green Bay.
Sitting Henry doesn't feel right, but it's a possibility should you have two higher-upside options in Week 16.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Yes, the Jets got blown out by the Jaguars in Week 15. But Hall was splitting work with Isaiah Davis even in the first half before the game was totally out of hand.
Hall had nine touches in the first half to Davis' five. Davis had a nice touchdown run later in the game, finishing with nine carries for 58 yards and a score.
Hall, on the other hand, rushed 12 times for just 23 yards. His 14 opportunities were the lowest he's gotten in a game since before the Jets' Week 9 bye.
Per Fantasy Points Data, his expected fantasy points share declined in Week 15.
The Bellcow Report for Week 15 and Season-To-Date
- RJ Harvey has worked his way up to an 84% backfield XFP share
- Breece Hall's XFP share declined in a week he entered banged up pic.twitter.com/Y7O0Kbs05T
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) December 16, 2025
With the Jets firmly out of the playoffs (3-11 record), there's a chance they lean even more into a split between Hall and Davis in the coming weeks.
In Week 16, they play the 4-10 Saints in New Orleans, who have been much better against the run at home (109.7 yards per game) than they have been on the road (151.6 yards per game).
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
He may still be getting back up to speed after missing three weeks, but Kincaid hasn't played over a third of the snaps in back-to-back games.
In fact, the Bills' third-year tight end hasn't played over one-third of the snaps since Week 5.
He's averaging 3.5 catches for 37 yards on 4.5 targets in the last two games as a part-time player. That's not terrible, but it's also not good enough from your starting tight end.
He found his way into the end zone in Week 14, but unless the Bills tell us they're going to ramp up his workload, it's hard to plug him into your semifinals lineup.
Fellow tight end Dawson Knox is pacing Kincaid in both routes (30 vs. 29) and first downs (7 vs. 4) the past two weeks (per Fantasy Points Data).
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Pierce looked like a stud with Daniel Jones. He had over 65 yards in eight of 11 games played with Danny Dimes under center.
But with 44-year-old Philip Rivers now in at quarterback, things are looking much different.
Pierce averages 20.13 yards per catch this season. Jones averaged 11.9 yards per completion this season. Rivers averaged 6.7 yards per completion in his first start.
It was clear he wasn't looking to throw down the field much, and that's where Pierce is best utilized.
There's no doubt Rivers kept the Colts competitive and was able to light a fire under the team.
The emotion from Philip Rivers. Nothing like it. pic.twitter.com/6tJ7DOhsdr
— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2025
However, he wanted to get the ball out as quickly as possible, and that spells trouble for Pierce moving forward.
Other Fantasy Football Fallers:
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