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Aidin's 2025 fantasy football analysis and outlooks for Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara. Which aging workhorse should you target in 2025?
From 2016 to 2018, we saw four superstar running backs enter the league who changed fantasy football forever. The first was Derrick Henry, who took a while to get going before establishing himself as a generational talent. Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara were up next, and almost immediately became fantasy stars, while Saquon Barkley finished his rookie season with the second-most PPR points ever recorded by a rookie running back (385.8).
Despite their age, these four are still producing. Barkley was arguably the best player in the world in 2024, with Henry not too far behind. CMC was arguably the best player in 2023, while Kamara has put up 1,000+ yards from scrimmage in each of his last eight seasons in the league. However, they have all struggled with injuries, and some fantasy managers are cautious of drafting any of these four RBs.
Without further ado, let's look at the fantasy outlooks for these four backs and determine if they are worth drafting at their current price.
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Saquon Barkley 2025 Fantasy Outlook
In its totality, Barkley's 2024 season was one of the best seasons any player has ever had in NFL history. He recorded 355.3 PPR points in 16 games before rushing for a ridiculous 442 yards and five touchdowns in the NFC playoffs.
His sheer dominance caused the Chiefs' defense to focus entirely on him in Super Bowl LIX, which backfired as the Eagles dominated their way to a Super Bowl win.
However, fantasy managers are skeptical. Barkley has missed most of the 2020 season due to an ACL tear, and nagging injuries caused his production to drop off in 2021 and 2023.
After leading the league in rushing attempts and touches in 2024 (345 and 378, respectively), many wouldn't be shocked if Barkley were to get injured again.
Barkley will have to fight two "curses" this year. We all know about the "Madden cover curse", but the "400+ carries curse" is even deadlier.
Including the playoffs, Barkley carried the ball 436 times last year. This graphic by The Athletic's Jim Ayello shows every other RB since 2000 who has had 400+ carries in a season, and their fantasy production the following year. Every single one of them saw their numbers fall off a cliff.
But we must consider that Barkley is no longer on a team with an average offensive line. He's on the Eagles, and they have the best O-Line in the league (ranked first by PFF ahead of this season).
Also, he's no longer being relied on to finish drives in the red zone against loaded boxes, as that's Jalen Hurts' specialty. Only four of his 13 rushing TDs last year came from inside the 10, so he's not exactly playing the role of a bruiser in Philly.
With all that being said, if you decide to draft Barkley at his RB2 ADP, he has a yearly habit that can help you determine how his season will go. As I laid out in my article on Barkley one year ago, Barkley's Week 1 performances will typically define his form for the rest of the season.
If he has a monster Week 1, he will be unstoppable for the rest of the year. If not, you might want to consider selling him as soon as possible.
Derrick Henry 2025 Fantasy Outlook
As stated in the introduction, Henry was not too far behind Barkley last season. Henry was the RB1 from Week 1 to Week 9, but his numbers fell off slightly in his next five games.
He still managed to finish the 2024 regular season on a high, putting up 75.5 PPR points in the final three games of the year. His RB6 ADP puts him above promising RBs such as Bucky Irving and De'Von Achane, but below McCaffrey and the rookie Ashton Jeanty.
The only reason Henry isn't in the top 4 is due to his age, as he will turn 32 near the end of this season. People have been predicting Henry's demise for a while now.
His foot injury in 2021 and his slightly down season in 2023 made NFL fans skeptical, but Henry proved them wrong on both occasions. He truly is a machine, but for how long can he keep going?
Henry has had more carries since 2020 (which includes his injury-shortened 2021) than CMC, Kamara, and Barkley have had in their entire regular season careers! 1,551 carries in just five seasons is insane, especially in this era.
The Ravens also don't have an elite O-Line, ranked 17th by PFF ahead of this season. Henry is a legend, and he can be a game-changer for you if he doesn't get hurt. However, the risk is just too great here.
Christian McCaffrey 2025 Fantasy Outlook
McCaffrey's 2023 season was truly spectacular. Despite not playing in the final game of the season, he recorded 391.3 PPR points, 100.8 whole points more than that season's RB2, Breece Hall.
Niners' Kyle Juszczyk expects RB Christian McCaffrey to return to form in 2025: "He looks incredible"https://t.co/9cqw0EI3A4 pic.twitter.com/c6tmWVfwBG
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) July 12, 2025
But just like Barkley in 2025, CMC dealt with two curses in 2024: the Madden cover curse and the Super Bowl runner-up curse. McCaffrey missed the first eight games of the season due to calf and Achilles injuries, and only managed to play in four games before injuring his PCL.
Despite his long injury history, McCaffrey is still held in high regard by fantasy analysts (RB4 ADP), and for good reason.
"He's an elite player, and we're gonna do everything we can to get him the ball as much as we can," said 49ers OC Klay Kubiak when asked about McCaffrey in the offseason.
CMC's Achilles and PCL injuries last year were unrelated and have both seemed to heal. While Isaac Guerendo and Jordan James are promising young players, the Niners' offense will run through McCaffrey again in 2025, especially after Deebo Samuel Sr.'s departure.
Alvin Kamara 2025 Fantasy Outlook
Kamara isn't in the same generational bracket as the other three players on this list, but he's still a star who made five Pro Bowls and two All-Pro teams in his career. Despite the Saints' ineptitude, Kamara still had an impressive season in 2024, his eighth year in the NFL.
Alvin Kamara from scrimmage in his career:
11,541 YDS
100.4 YPG
85 TDOne of ten RBs to hit those numbers before his age-30 season. pic.twitter.com/OwIGf9NmtE
— StatMuse Football (@statmusefb) May 9, 2025
Kamara put up the most rushing yards of his career in a season (950) and continued his streak of eight consecutive seasons with 1,000+ yards from scrimmage. He did this in just 14 games, as he missed the final three games of the season due to a groin injury.
Kamara was the PPR RB3 until Week 15, and finished the year as the RB9 despite the injury setbacks. He's still an asset and has never missed more than four games in a row due to injury, but this year's Saints offense is truly pitiful.
Kamara will likely share touches with young RBs Kendre Miller and Devin Neal, and potentially the veteran Cam Akers. However, he's still clearly the top dog there. He'll likely run a lot this year and catch some short passes from the team's inexperienced QBs.
If his body can still hold up now that he's almost 30, he can be an absolute steal at his RB18 ADP.
Which Aging Workhorse RB Should You Draft?
If you don't believe in curses and weren't burned by taking CMC last year, Barkley could be the talisman of your team, but you will have to pay attention to his Week 1 performance. If he plays well, you've made the right choice by drafting him. If not, you'd be better off selling him ASAP.
Henry is a risky pick. He can certainly be a league-winner, and has proven his doubters time and time again. But he's a running back, and you can't expect a running back to have Tom Brady-esque longevity. Eventually, Father Time will catch up.
CMC is a solid choice, especially if you've never drafted him before and feel confident about him staying healthy. Kamara is an absolute bargain at his current price, but I wouldn't advise taking him before the fourth round and putting all your faith in him.
Verdict: Target McCaffrey as your RB1, and Kamara as your RB2 (or RB1 in zero-RB).
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