RADIO
Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 2 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
This series enters the second season of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 1, we saw performances such as Jameis Winston throwing for five touchdowns, Joe Mixon carrying the ball 29 times for 121 rushing yards, and the Cowboys wide receiver room combining for 303 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in!
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Improvements Ahead?
These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Los Angeles Chargers Running Backs - Passing Game
Joe Lombardi
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Chargers | 24.31 | 95 | 0.38 | 7.75 | 9.31 | 54.06 | 0.13 |
| Joe Lombardi Prior (23 games) | 19.70 | 71.83 | 0.48 | 7.22 | 10.39 | 60.35 | 0.35 |
| 2021 Chargers | 24 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
The Chargers hired a new offensive coordinator in 2021 with Joe Lombardi, and this past Sunday was the first time that he called plays since the 2015 season with the Detroit Lions. Based on Lombardi's time in Detroit and the Chargers offense last year, it was expected that the team would pepper the running backs with targets (particularly Austin Ekeler). But that's not what happened in week 1. In week 1, the Chargers running back room combined for one reception for two receiving yards. Even if you don't think the group will hover around the 10 running back targets per game we've seen in the past from Joe Lombardi's running back room, the bottom line is there will be an improvement here.
Fantasy players this impacts: Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, Larry Rountree III
Washington Football Team Running Backs - Passing Game
Scott Turner
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec | RB Tgt | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Washington Football Team | 21.81 | 88.63 | 1 | 7.5 | 10.06 | 53 | 0.13 |
| Scott Turner Prior (20 games) | 20.4 | 83.05 | 0.95 | 8.15 | 10.5 | 62.4 | 0.1 |
| 2021 Washington Football Team | 23 | 107 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
Even though the Washington Football Team gave their running back room seven targets on Sunday, this was actually a little disappointing considering Scott Turner has provided his backs with roughly 10 targets per game over the course of his 20 games as an offensive play-caller. Going forward, expect better receiving numbers from the Washington Football Team's running backs in Turner's offense.
Fantasy players this impacts: Antonio Gibson & J.D. McKissic
Indianapolis Colts Tight Ends
Frank Reich & Marcus Brady
| TE Rec | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Colts | 5.13 | 7.44 | 55.94 | 0.5 |
| Frank Reich Prior (112 games) | 6.32 | 9.47 | 69.29 | 0.69 |
| 2021 Colts | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
Frank Reich has loved featuring his tight ends in the passing game over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, but against the Seattle Seahawks this past Sunday, the group caught just three passes on six targets for 21 receiving yards. There will be better weeks in the future for the Colts' tight ends if Reich's previous tendencies shine through.
Fantasy players this impacts: Kylen Granson, Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox
Dallas Cowboys Running Backs - Ground Game
Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Cowboys | 22 | 89.88 | 0.63 | 5 | 6.94 | 33.13 | 0.19 |
| 21.29 | 89.53 | 0.57 | 4.03 | 5.44 | 31.42 | 0.10 | |
| 23.09 | 101.56 | 0.75 | 4.66 | 6.31 | 33.03 | 0.19 | |
| 2021 Cowboys | 14 | 47 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is the team's primary offensive play-caller in 2021 and has generally gotten solid production out of his backs over the course of his 32 games with the team. In addition, while Mike McCarthy's teams generally don't feature the running back position as much as other teams, his career per-game averages with the position are still significantly higher than what we saw last Thursday from the team. There will be easier matchups than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead and that should lead to better fantasy performances from the team's backfield.
Fantasy players this impacts: Ezekiel Elliott & Tony Pollard
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Backs - Ground Game
Bruce Arians & Byron Leftwich
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 20.31 | 92.81 | 0.81 | 5.25 | 7.38 | 33.31 | 0.13 |
| Bruce Arians Prior (256 games) | 23.62 | 93.63 | 0.66 | 4.11 | 5.91 | 34.46 | 0.13 |
| Byron Leftwich Prior (41 games) | 20.95 | 84.61 | 0.76 | 5.20 | 7.20 | 39.63 | 0.12 |
| 2021 Buccaneers | 13 | 46 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers running backs combined for just 85 scrimmage yards against the Cowboys this past week, which was well below the career averages of head coach Bruce Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. There should be some FLEX-caliber performances in the future for this backfield.
Fantasy players this impacts: Giovani Bernard, Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones II, and Ke'Shawn Vaughn
New York Giants Running Backs
Jason Garrett
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Giants | 19.38 | 78.5 | 0.63 | 3.63 | 5.19 | 24.88 | 0.13 |
| Jason Garrett Prior (223 games) | 23.35 | 104.31 | 0.64 | 4.36 | 5.58 | 34.39 | 0.09 |
| 2021 Giants | 14 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
It was expected that the Giants backfield would start off slow with Saquon Barkley playing in his first game since week 2 of the 2020 season, but the expectations were still higher than just 40 total yards. This backfield could struggle again much like 2020 in Jason Garrett's offense, but the bottom line is that this past week was a floor performance from the Giants backfield.
Fantasy players this impacts: Saquon Barkley & Devontae Booker
Miami Dolphins Tight Ends
George Godsey & Eric Studesville
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Dolphins | 5.69 | 8.5 | 66.31 | 0.69 |
| George Godsey Prior (32 games) | 4.88 | 8 | 48.19 | 0.34 |
| Eric Studesville Prior (4 games) | 1 | 3.5 | 13.25 | 0 |
| 2021 Dolphins | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
The Miami Dolphins' tight end room was barely utilized on Sunday, with the group combining for one catch on four targets for nine receiving yards against the New England Patriots. This isn't actually too far off of co-offensive coordinator Eric Studesville's previous usage of the position in his four games as the Denver Broncos interim head coach back in 2010, but it was pretty far off of the usage we've seen from co-offensive coordinator George Godsey in the past. There's potential for a bounce-back game from this group in Week 2.
Fantasy players this impacts: Adam Shaheen & Mike Gesicki
Green Bay Packers Running Backs
Matt LaFleur & Nathaniel Hackett
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Packers | 23.81 | 120.38 | 0.81 | 5.69 | 7.19 | 43.5 | 0.19 |
| Matt LaFleur Prior (64 games) | 22.91 | 104.75 | 0.91 | 5.20 | 6.59 | 43.64 | 0.28 |
| Nathaniel Hackett Prior (100 games) | 24.69 | 105.5 | 0.69 | 5.97 | 7.98 | 47.18 | 0.23 |
| 2021 Packers | 14 | 42 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
The Packers poor performance was perhaps the most shocking part of the Sunday slate of NFL games. In this game, the Green Bay Packers running backs combined for 14 carries, 42 rushing yards, three receptions (on four targets), and 20 receiving yards. This is well below the averages we've come used to seeing from head coach Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and this group should have significantly better performances in the future if the past is any indication.
Fantasy players this impacts: Aaron Jones, Kylin Hill, A.J. Dillon
ansas City Chiefs Running Backs
Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Chiefs | 19.75 | 83.5 | 0.5 | 4.75 | 6.94 | 36.5 | 0.19 |
| Andy Reid Prior (352 games) | 19.97 | 87.43 | 0.64 | 4.94 | 6.74 | 42.64 | 0.28 |
| Eric Bieniemy Prior (48 games) | 19.17 | 83.08 | 0.71 | 4.94 | 6.38 | 42.42 | 0.38 |
| 2021 Chiefs | 15 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
Andy Reid has always generally given his running backs less work than the average play-caller, but this past Sunday he gave his backs even fewer carries than his career averages. It is likely we see more usage for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the rest of the Chiefs' running backs next week against the Baltimore Ravens.
Fantasy players this impacts: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, Darrel Williams
Declines Ahead?
These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Buffalo Bills Wide Receivers - Targets
Brian Daboll
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Bills | 19.5 | 26.69 | 243.56 | 1.75 |
| Brian Daboll Prior (112 games) | 10.96 | 19.25 | 140.74 | 0.71 |
| 2021 Bills | 23 | 40 | 221 | 1 |
The Bills have really embraced throwing to their wide receivers over the last year or so, with the wide receiver room averaging 26.69 targets per game in 2020 and getting 40 targets in the season opener of the 2021 season against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Forty targets is over double the number of targets we've seen from the average Brian Daboll wide receiver room, so going forward expect there to be a dip in the targets department.
Fantasy players this impacts: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Marquez Stevenson, Gabriel Davis, Emmanuel Sanders
Cincinnati Bengals Running Backs - Ground Game
Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Bengals | 20.75 | 81.38 | 0.56 | 5.25 | 6.38 | 36.81 | 0.25 |
| Zac Taylor Prior (37 games) | 20.92 | 81.24 | 0.49 | 4.59 | 5.86 | 34.57 | 0.19 |
| Brian Callahan Prior (32 games) | 20.72 | 81.53 | 0.44 | 4.66 | 5.94 | 34.69 | 0.22 |
| 2021 Bengals | 34 | 149 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
The Cincinnati Bengals pounded the rock on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings, with the team's running backs taking 34 carries for 149 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. This was almost 15 carries and 70 rushing yards more than the average game from a Zac Taylor running back room, so there's a good chance we see some regression in future weeks from this group.
Fantasy players this impacts: Joe Mixon & Samaje Perine
Detroit Lions Running Backs - Passing Game
Dan Campbell & Anthony Lynn
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Lions | 20.19 | 81.94 | 1.06 | 5.06 | 6.56 | 41.63 | 0.19 |
| Dan Campbell Prior (12 games) | 19.83 | 86.5 | 0.75 | 5.42 | 6.83 | 49.17 | 0.17 |
| Anthony Lynn Prior (78 games) | 22.81 | 101.26 | 0.82 | 6.71 | 8.50 | 57.15 | 0.35 |
| 2021 Lions | 20 | 93 | 1 | 16 | 20 | 121 | 1 |
Anthony Lynn has been one of the most running back-friendly coaches in the NFL over the course of his career as an offensive play-caller and there's a great chance that both Swift and Williams outproduce their ADPs this year. Having said this, there will absolutely be a decline from the receiving usage and totals we saw against the San Francisco 49ers where the team's backfield caught 16 passes on 20 targets for 121 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.
Fantasy players this impacts: D'Andre Swift & Jamaal Williams
Houston Texans Running Backs
David Culley & Tim Kelly
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Texans | 15.75 | 63.63 | 0.44 | 4.25 | 5.56 | 36.94 | 0.25 |
| Tim Kelly Prior (32 games) | 18.56 | 79.63 | 0.47 | 3.84 | 5.25 | 32.88 | 0.22 |
| 2021 Texans | 37 | 120 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 1 |
The Houston Texans destroyed the Jacksonville Jaguars this past week and the team's running backs dominated, taking 37 carries for 120 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Given Tim Kelly's running back room has averaged 18.56 carries for 79.63 rushing yards and 0.47 rushing touchdowns per game in the 32 games he coached prior to Sunday, there's likely a dip in performance for the Texans running backs in the tougher matchups ahead.
Fantasy players this impacts: Mark Ingram II, David Johnson, Rex Burkhead, Phillip Lindsay
Dallas Cowboys Wide Receivers
Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 24.88 | 202.19 | 1.06 |
| 13.15 | 21.93 | 179.79 | 1.30 | |
| 15 | 23.59 | 209.69 | 1.16 | |
| 2021 Cowboys | 27 | 41 | 303 | 3 |
The Dallas Cowboys went full Air Raid mode against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the team's wide receiver room really benefited from it, catching 27 passes on 41 targets for 303 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. While Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore are two of the most WR-friendly coaches in the league, this level of production is not sustainable long term especially with Michael Gallup out a few weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, Noah Brown
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