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Eli Grabanski analyzes disappointing offensive performances from Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season to find teams that will improve at RB, WR, and TE for fantasy football purposes based on playcalling tendencies and historical data.
In fantasy football, we try to take as much data into account before making a conclusion on players. That includes means looking at things like game tape, snap counts, the team's offensive line, or their primary play-callers historical tendencies to utilize a certain position. After much research, I've developed a broad knowledge of how each team's play-caller historically operates and compiled a bunch of data.
After an incredible week 1 where we saw performances like Gardner Minshew throwing more touchdown passes than incompletions, Odell Beckham Jr. only had 3 receptions and 22 receiving yards on 10 targets, or the Atlanta Falcons WR room having three 100+ yard receivers, it's important to look at their play-callers history and see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!
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Improvement Ahead
These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Cleveland Browns Running Backs
In week 1, the Browns running backs totaled 24 carries for 137 rushing yards with Kareem Hunt getting 13 of those carries for 72 yards, Nick Chubb getting 10 carries for 60 yards, and D'Ernest Johnson getting one carry for five yards. In addition, through the air, they combined to catch five passes on seven targets for fifteen yards.
Now compare this to Kevin Stefanski's averages in the past. Prior to this game historically, Kevin Stefanski's running back room averaged 26 carries, 123.21 rushing yards, 1.05 rushing touchdowns, 5.89 targets, 41.84 receiving yards, and 0.05 receiving touchdowns per game (19 games).
While the carries, rushing yards, and targets are around Browns' head coach Kevin Stefanski's career averages, the receiving yards and touchdowns are much lower than we should expect from his running backs. While we don't know how the distribution is going to shake out between Chubb and Hunt on a week to week basis, you can bet on the Browns running backs having improved fantasy production in the future.
Fantasy players this impacts: Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb
Jacksonville Jaguars Wide Receivers (Number of Touches + Yards)
A phenomenal performance by Gardner Minshew led to some decent fantasy days from D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Keelan Cole despite not getting a ton of work. Yesterday the Jaguars wide receivers combined for 13 receptions on 14 targets for 129 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.
In the past offensive coordinator, Jay Gruden and head coach Doug Marrone have given more usage to their wide receivers and gotten more receiving yards out of them. Prior to week 1, in 133 games as an offensive coordinator or head coach, play-caller Jay Gruden's wide receiver room averaged 20.11 targets for 156.13 receiving yards and 0.96 receiving touchdowns per game. In addition, in Doug Marrone's 144 games as an offensive coordinator or head coach, his wide receiver room averaged 20.26 targets for 160.24 receiving yards and 1.01 receiving touchdowns per game.
Expect the targets and receiving yards to increase in the future for the Jaguars wide receivers and the receiving touchdowns to dip a bit.
Fantasy players this impacts: D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault Jr., Chris Conley, and Keelan Cole
Philadelphia Eagles Running Backs
The Eagles were without lead back Miles Sanders on Sunday and it cost them greatly with the team losing to the Washington Football Team. The team failed to establish the run, with their running backs only getting 16 carries for 55 rushing yards and no touchdowns. They also clearly missed Sanders' ability in the passing game with Boston Scott and Corey Clement only combining for four receptions on four targets for 21 receiving yards.
Based on Doug Pederson's history, this is going to change for the better. In Doug Pederson's 112 games as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this game, his running back room averaged 22.625 carries, 99.18 rushing yards, 0.86 rushing touchdowns, 6.62 targets, 41.18 receiving yards, and 0.30 receiving yards. The Eagles running backs should be better in the coming weeks.
Based on Doug Pederson's history, this is going to change for the better. In Doug Pederson's 112 games as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this game, his running back room averaged 22.625 carries, 99.18 rushing yards, 0.86 rushing touchdowns, 6.62 targets, 41.18 receiving yards, and 0.30 receiving yards. The Eagles running backs should be better in the coming weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Corey Clement
Minnesota Vikings Running Backs (Carries)
The Vikings didn't get off to the start they wanted to on Sunday, losing to their arch-rival the Green Bay Packers. The team was trailing most of the game and didn't get a ton of opportunities to utilize their running backs with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison combining for 18 carries, 100 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, six targets, five receptions, 28 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns.
In the 349 games prior, Gary Kubiak was an offensive coordinator or head coach, his running backs averaged 25.27 carries, 113 rushing yards, 0.86 rushing touchdowns, 4.92 targets, 27.83 receiving yards, and 0.10 receiving touchdowns per game. Based on this, it's likely the running backs will see an increase in carries, a few more rushing yards, and a decrease in touchdowns in the coming weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison
Raiders Wide Receivers
The Raiders went run-heavy on Sunday, feeding the ball to Josh Jacobs who ended up scoring three touchdowns as the team beat the Carolina Panthers. The team's wide receivers didn't get much usage getting seven receptions on nine targets for 108 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.
Prior to yesterday, Jon Gruden coached 256 games as an offensive coordinator/head coach and his wide receivers averaged 17.69 targets, 140.43 receiving yards, and 0.81 receiving touchdowns per game. Based on these past averages, we should expect the team to nearly double the targets for the team's wide receivers in future weeks, as well as an increase in receiving yards.
Fantasy players this impacts: Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfrow
Buccaneers Wide Receivers
The Tom Brady era in Tampa Bay did not get off to a good start, with the team dropping their first game to the New Orleans Saints 34-23. The wide receiver room caught 13 passes on 19 targets for 160 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Prior to yesterday, Byron Leftwich's offenses averaged 21.52 targets, 186.64 receiving yards, and 1.36 receiving touchdowns per game in his 25 games as an offensive coordinator. In addition, head coach Bruce Arians' offense has averaged 22.15 targets, 178.39 receiving yards, and 1.12 receiving touchdowns in his 240 games prior as an offensive coordinator or head coach. If we use these averages as a basis to predict future performance, there's a good chance that the Buccaneers wide receiver room will have better performances in the future.
Fantasy players this impacts: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Scotty Miller
Chargers Running Backs (Pass Game)
For the first time since 2003, the Chargers played a game without Philip Rivers on the roster. They ended up winning after Randy Bullock missed a field goal for the Bengals.
In the game yesterday, the running backs room took 33 carries for 148 rushing yards and a touchdown. This is a great day for the team on the ground, but through the air, only Austin Ekeler received receiving work...in the form of one reception on one target for three yards. Considering head coach Anthony Lynn's running back room averages 22.42 carries, 102.87 rushing yards, 0.94 rushing touchdowns, 8.29 targets, 57.95 receiving yards, and 0.40 receiving touchdowns per game over the course of the 62 games prior.
If we go based on Lynn's previous experience, we should expect positive regression in the receiving game for Lynn's running backs as well as some regression in the ground game.
Fantasy players this impacts: Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, and Justin Jackson
Seahawks Running Backs (Run Game)
The Seattle Seahawks got off to a great start this season winning their game against the Falcons by double-digits. But uncharacteristically for a Brian Schottenheimer offense, the team did not utilize their running backs in the ground game very much. The Seahawks running backs combined to take 16 carries for 43 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Considering offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's running back room has averaged 25.34 carries, 106.54 rushing yards, 0.67 rushing touchdowns, 5.80 targets, 32.36 receiving yards, and 0.10 receiving touchdowns we can expect two things. One, the Seahawks running backs should perform significantly better on the ground in the coming weeks. And two, it's unlikely that the Seahawks running backs catch two touchdowns in a single game again this year.
So overall, while we should expect a little regression from the Seahawks running backs in the passing game after catching eight passes on eight targets for 49 receiving yards and two touchdowns, their improvement in the ground game should more than make up for it.
Fantasy players this impacts: Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde
Chiefs Running Backs (Pass Game)
The Kansas City Chiefs dismantled the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football and ended up winning 34-20. While the running game was impressive with Clyde Edwards-Helaire having a great debut, it was notable that the Chiefs didn't really utilize their running backs in the passing game (likely due to a huge lead).
We saw the Chiefs running backs get 32 carries, 161 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown on the ground. But through the air they only combined for two receptions on four targets for seven receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. Considering head coach Andy Reid's running back room has averaged 19.98 carries, 87.62 rushing yards, 0.65 rushing touchdowns, 6.73 targets, 42.94 receiving yards, and 0.29 receiving touchdowns per game in the 336 games he coached prior, we can bet on the Chiefs running backs to be used less on the ground and more through the air in future weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams
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