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FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Picks (4/14/17): MLB DFS Advice

Happy Friday to us, my fellow Rotoballers. Let's kick this weekend off right, and by "right," I mean above the cash-line. On deck for today we have a 15 game slate. There is an Early Only contest with two games, starting at 2:20 Eastern, as well as the All Day contests starting then as well. The Main contest begins at 7:05 EDT, with 26 teams taking the field then or shortly thereafter.

Before we get into the players and their respective matchups, let's see if there are any insights we can gather from the early lines Vegas has posted. The teams with the highest projected run totals - which can be a big help when looking at which teams to stack or which pitchers to fade - are the Reds (5.2), the Nationals (4.8), the Twins (4.8), the Red Sox (4.7) the Royals (4.7) and finally the Blue Jays (4.7). As for the biggest favorites, which can be helpful when looking for cash game pitchers (or the reverse, as it can help you find which pitchers to load up against) are the Dodgers (-253), the Nationals (-202) and the Cubs (-170). After that, there isn't that much that is noteworthy. One interesting fact I did read, however, was that this is the first time Zack Greinke (who faces the Dodgers) has been a +250 or higher underdog since 2008, back when he was with the Royals.

Now that we got that out of the way, shall we dance?

Cyber Week Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code CYBER. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice for NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL from proven winners! Dan Palyo leads the team with exclusive picks for DFS picks, Props, betting. Enhance your game with industry-leading tools like our Lineup Optimizers, Team Sync Platform, DFS Cheat Sheets and more. GAIN ACCESS

 

Offensive Stacks

Minnesota Twins versus Dylan Covey

The Twins are definitely an intriguing stack this evening. As Vegas lines tend to do, things have shifted a bit since run totals, over/unders, moneylines were first released, and of the teams in the top 5 for projected run totals today, only the Twins have trended upward, currently sitting at an implied total of 4.9 runs. After a somewhat slow start, this lineup has picked it up of late, and they'll look to continue the trend today in what is a pretty opportune matchup. They'll face off with White Sox rookie right-hander Dylan Covey. Covey has never pitched above the AA level, and while his numbers are nothing to laugh at, his strikeout numbers per nine are respectable (7.9),  but he's proven to be wild around the plate as well. In 2016, he owned an ugly 5.22 BB/9 and that's something that can get him into trouble early today. The Twins I have my eyes on are Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and Joe Mauer would be my fourth. Sano, Kepler and Dozier all own ISO splits against right-handers that are above .200 over the course of the past year.

Also Consider: Boston Red Sox versus Chris Archer (GPP only)

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Noah Syndegaard - SP, at MIA ($11,200)

Admittedly, this was not an easy call by any stretch of the imagination. Anytime you have complete studs like Thor, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg pitching on the same day - and none of which are facing each other - you're left with a tough choice to make. I landed on Syndegaard for a few reasons, which I'll get into in a second, but this is certainly not meant to steer anyone away from using Kershaw - especially for those who have confidence in him. He'll likely be the chalk, and perhaps for good reason. In addition to the lower price, I just prefer Syndegaard's matchup. To start, Syndegaard faces a projected lineup with a higher K% and a lower team wOBA split than the one Kershaw is expected to face. Noah also takes the mound at the more favorable pitcher's park tonight, which is an upgrade than his home park in Queens. He also has the edge in HR/9 and K/9 this season. Yes, those samples are small, but in them we also find that Syndegaard has a considerable edge in batted ball distance allowed this season, ground balls induced, and a much lower hard hit rate. Roll with Thor this evening and use the extra cash you've pocketed to bulk up your lineup.

Julio Teheran - SP, vs SDP ($8,500)

For my tournament readers, let's roll the dice a bit. Teheran can be a bit of a wild card with his high variance scoring outcomes, but honestly, that's all part of the game in tournaments. You have to take on some risk, save some cash (more often than not, but not always), and find a pitcher that has the opportunity to punch out 7-10 guys via the strikeout. It's not an easy thing to do and it can be hard to convince yourself to take on some risk. I'll admit today's matchup doesn't look as risky on the surface, but you never know what you'll end up with when rostering Teheran and his elevated fly-ball rate. I like today's opportunity mainly because we've seen Teheran be effective this year, his strikeout rate per nine innings is above eight, he faces a paltry Padres lineup that has struck out in nearly 28% of at-bats versus right-handed pitching this year, and he faces them in what is one of the most favorable pitching parks of the day. He may not fly under the radar as much as we'd ideally like a GPP pitcher to, but he offers enough salary relief where you can load up your lineup with home run threats.

Also Consider: Clayton Kershaw - SP, vs ARI ($12,600) - Cash; Stephen Strasburg - SP, vs PHI ($9,900) - GPP option/salary relief

 

FanDuel DFS Infielders

Manny Pina - C, at CIN ($2,200)

Stop me if you've heard this before, but the catcher cupboard is quite bare today. A few of my often-deemed "top matchups," guys who can save you some cash and hit the long ball, like James McCann and Wellington Castillo, don't have good splits tonight. As such, I moved down the list to look for a catcher that can save me some cash but also provide upside in the form of potential home runs or extra base hits. Pina has quietly gotten off to a solid start this year, provides a ton of salary relief, and gets a nice ballpark upgrade today. He also happens to play for one of the teams with the highest projected run total, which is quite favorable, and he also owns an ISO split against right-handed pitchers that is 148 points higher than his southpaw splits. If there was a time to take on the risk of rostering a bottom-third-of-the-order catcher, that time is today.

Also Consider: Victor Martinez - C, at CLE ($2,600)

Miguel Cabrera - 1B, at CLE ($3,600)

Miggy hasn't had the hottest start to his 2017 campaign to say they least, but he finally broke out yesterday, crushing a home run and piling up 24.9 FanDuel points in the process. The nice thing about that is that his salary has crawled downward and we get him at a more ideal price - a figure that he can and should surpass value at. Over the past year, Cabrera owns very impressive splits against right-handers, posting a .397 wOBA and a .255 ISO.

Also Consider: Eric Thames - 1B, at CIN ($2,500) - GPP option

Brian Dozier - 2B, vs CWS ($3,700)

There's very little not to love about Mr. Dozier. He's a power-hitting second baseman that can hit for average, too, and is slotted in the leadoff spot, which is quite literally the most opportune spot we can consider for DFS roster construction. On top of that, he is an opposite splits guy, meaning he has better splits over the last year when facing right-handed pitching (despite him being a right-handed hitter himself) and could go a little overlooked tonight on this big slate. Those splits I mentioned are quite impressive. Have a look for yourself: .368 wOBA, .263 ISO and a .536 slugging percentage. That'll play.

Also Consider: Jonathan Villar - 2B, at CIN ($3,500) - GPP option

Mike Moustakas - 3B, vs LAA ($3,000)

The steadily-improving Moustakas has picked up where he left off in the power department of his 2016 campaign and entered 2017 with a bang. The lefty slugger has always had a knack for hitting right-handed pitching hard, and he'll have the opportunity to do so tonight at a very cheap price. Moose is currently projected to hit as high as second in the order tonight, and his .395 wOBA and .329 ISO splits create both an incredibly high floor and high ceiling.

Also Consider: Nick Castellanos - 3B, at CLE ($3,000) - GPP only

Aledmys Diaz - SS, at NYY ($3,600)

Diaz has somewhat quietly produced big time split numbers against right-handed pitching in the last year, posting a .385 wOBA and .245 ISO. Seeing as he has positive reverse splits, he could go under the radar this evening, and he does get a slight park upgrade moving from St. Louis to the Bronx in this matchup. Additionally, his direct competition - Masahiro Tanaka - has been struggling in a number of areas. Most notably, he's been dealing with elbow issues, a decrease in velocity, and right-handed hitters have posted over a .400 wOBA in his last few starts.

Also Consider: Francisco Lindor - SS, vs DET ($4,100)

 

FanDuel DFS Outfielders

Michael Conforto - OF, at MIA ($2,800)

I find it quite amusing that Conforto is listed at such a discount price. Yes. we're very early into a long season, but he's been mashing the ball and hitting near the top of the order. There isn't a lot more you can ask for from an outfielder priced under $3,000. But wait, there is more. Over the last season, Conforto owns splits against right-handed pitching that are quite beautiful, posting a .357 wOBA and .251 ISO.

Adam Duvall - OF, vs MIL ($3,600)

Duvall wasn't one of the outfielders that immediately looked enticing, but a dig into his peripheral stats revealed he could be a stellar option this evening, particularly in tournament formats. The slugger that burst onto the scene in 2016 has an opportune matchup tonight in one of the best parks for power hitters at Great American. Over the last year, Duvall has posted a .265 ISO split and maintained a hard-hit rate at or above 35%. His opposition, Tommy Milone, has allowed over a .360 wOBA and .500 slugging percentage split to right-handed hitters, which bodes well for Duvall and a few of his teammates.

Also Consider: Mike Trout - OF, at KC ($5,100) and Curtis Granderson - OF, at MIA ($2,900)

 

MLB News & Injury Alerts

 

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Jones Sr.

Not Dealing With Serious Shoulder Injury, Likely Day-to-Day
Sam Darnold

Dealing With Ankle Injury, "Should be Good" for Week 14
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
Sauce Gardner

Officially Week-to-Week with Strained Calf
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
Justin Herbert

Has Metacarpal Fracture in Left Hand
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Week 14 Availability Up in the Air
VEG

Carter Hart Expected to Make Golden Knights Debut Tuesday
Andre Drummond

Leaves Early, Status Now in Question
Pyotr Kochetkov

Remains Without Timeline For Return
Boone Jenner

Close to Returning
Tre Mann

Uncertain for Monday's Game Against Nets
Lian Bichsel

Exits With Injury Sunday
Deandre Ayton

Leaves Game With Knee Soreness
Petr Mrazek

Injured in Sunday's Loss
Adam Fox

Placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve
Brandon Williams

Questionable With Adductor Issue
P.J. Washington

Uncertain For Monday's Contest
Daniel Gafford

Expected To Miss Second Straight Game
Zach Ertz

Leads Washington in Receiving in Overtime Loss
James Cook

Handles Career-High 32 Carries for 144 Yards in Win
Egor Demin

Available Against Hornets
Justin Herbert

Planning to Play Through Broken Bone in Left Hand in Week 14
Terance Mann

in Danger of Missing Monday's Game
Sauce Gardner

Likely to Miss a "Couple of Weeks" With Calf Strain
Noah Clowney

Considered Probable for Monday
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed as Probable for Monday's Matchup
Caris LeVert

Expected Back Monday
Duncan Robinson

Questionable to Face Hawks
Jalen Duren

Likely to Return Against Hawks Monday
Brock Bowers

Records Two Touchdown Grabs in Week 13
Alexandre Sarr

Iffy for Monday
Mark Williams

Available Against Lakers Monday
Ryan Dunn

on Track to Return Monday
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Uncertain for Monday
Coby White

Returning to Bulls Lineup Monday
Paolo Banchero

Unavailable Monday
Larry Nance Jr.

to Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jarrett Allen

to Miss a Week of Action
Justin Herbert

Suffers Fractured Hand in Week 13, Will Have Surgery
Kimani Vidal

has Season-High in Rushing Yards in Win Over Raiders
De'Von Achane

Looks Unstoppable on the Ground in Week 13
Davante Adams

has Another Two-Touchdown Game
Aaron Jones Sr.

is Questionable to Return With Shoulder Injury
Adonai Mitchell

has Career Day With 102 Yards, Touchdown in Win
Bijan Robinson

Compiles 191 Total Yards, Touchdown in Loss to Jets
Shedeur Sanders

Will Start Again in Week 14 Against Titans
Mike Evans

Could Return in Week 14
Keon Coleman

Active for Week 13
Dalton Kincaid

Officially Inactive for Week 13
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
CFB

Florida Poised to Land Jon Sumrall as Next Head Coach
CFB

Alex Golesh Taking Over Auburn Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Joel Hofer

Shuts Out Mammoth
Owen Tippett

Amasses Three Points in Saturday's Win
Stuart Skinner

Bounces Back With Shutout
Brock Nelson

Notches Four Points in Big Win
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Sustains Upper-Body Injury
Logan Cooley

Hurt in Saturday's Loss
Warren Foegele

Not Ready to Return Saturday
Simon Benoit

Won't Play Saturday
Henri Jokiharju

Lands on Injured Reserve
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Pavel Zacha

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles
David Pastrnak

Out for Second Consecutive Game
William Nylander

Available Saturday
Kyle Palmieri

Out for 6-8 Months With Torn ACL
Jake Walman

Sidelined for Third Consecutive Game
Jack Roslovic

to Miss Two Weeks
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract
Josh Hader

Says his Shoulder is "Back to Normal"
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks "Actively Listening" on Ketel Marte

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