RADIO
Happy Friday to us, my fellow Rotoballers. Let's kick this weekend off right, and by "right," I mean above the cash-line. On deck for today we have a 15 game slate. There is an Early Only contest with two games, starting at 2:20 Eastern, as well as the All Day contests starting then as well. The Main contest begins at 7:05 EDT, with 26 teams taking the field then or shortly thereafter.
Before we get into the players and their respective matchups, let's see if there are any insights we can gather from the early lines Vegas has posted. The teams with the highest projected run totals - which can be a big help when looking at which teams to stack or which pitchers to fade - are the Reds (5.2), the Nationals (4.8), the Twins (4.8), the Red Sox (4.7) the Royals (4.7) and finally the Blue Jays (4.7). As for the biggest favorites, which can be helpful when looking for cash game pitchers (or the reverse, as it can help you find which pitchers to load up against) are the Dodgers (-253), the Nationals (-202) and the Cubs (-170). After that, there isn't that much that is noteworthy. One interesting fact I did read, however, was that this is the first time Zack Greinke (who faces the Dodgers) has been a +250 or higher underdog since 2008, back when he was with the Royals.
Now that we got that out of the way, shall we dance?
Offensive Stacks
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Noah Syndegaard - SP, at MIA ($11,200)
Admittedly, this was not an easy call by any stretch of the imagination. Anytime you have complete studs like Thor, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg pitching on the same day - and none of which are facing each other - you're left with a tough choice to make. I landed on Syndegaard for a few reasons, which I'll get into in a second, but this is certainly not meant to steer anyone away from using Kershaw - especially for those who have confidence in him. He'll likely be the chalk, and perhaps for good reason. In addition to the lower price, I just prefer Syndegaard's matchup. To start, Syndegaard faces a projected lineup with a higher K% and a lower team wOBA split than the one Kershaw is expected to face. Noah also takes the mound at the more favorable pitcher's park tonight, which is an upgrade than his home park in Queens. He also has the edge in HR/9 and K/9 this season. Yes, those samples are small, but in them we also find that Syndegaard has a considerable edge in batted ball distance allowed this season, ground balls induced, and a much lower hard hit rate. Roll with Thor this evening and use the extra cash you've pocketed to bulk up your lineup.
Julio Teheran - SP, vs SDP ($8,500)
For my tournament readers, let's roll the dice a bit. Teheran can be a bit of a wild card with his high variance scoring outcomes, but honestly, that's all part of the game in tournaments. You have to take on some risk, save some cash (more often than not, but not always), and find a pitcher that has the opportunity to punch out 7-10 guys via the strikeout. It's not an easy thing to do and it can be hard to convince yourself to take on some risk. I'll admit today's matchup doesn't look as risky on the surface, but you never know what you'll end up with when rostering Teheran and his elevated fly-ball rate. I like today's opportunity mainly because we've seen Teheran be effective this year, his strikeout rate per nine innings is above eight, he faces a paltry Padres lineup that has struck out in nearly 28% of at-bats versus right-handed pitching this year, and he faces them in what is one of the most favorable pitching parks of the day. He may not fly under the radar as much as we'd ideally like a GPP pitcher to, but he offers enough salary relief where you can load up your lineup with home run threats.
Also Consider: Clayton Kershaw - SP, vs ARI ($12,600) - Cash; Stephen Strasburg - SP, vs PHI ($9,900) - GPP option/salary relief
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Manny Pina - C, at CIN ($2,200)
Stop me if you've heard this before, but the catcher cupboard is quite bare today. A few of my often-deemed "top matchups," guys who can save you some cash and hit the long ball, like James McCann and Wellington Castillo, don't have good splits tonight. As such, I moved down the list to look for a catcher that can save me some cash but also provide upside in the form of potential home runs or extra base hits. Pina has quietly gotten off to a solid start this year, provides a ton of salary relief, and gets a nice ballpark upgrade today. He also happens to play for one of the teams with the highest projected run total, which is quite favorable, and he also owns an ISO split against right-handed pitchers that is 148 points higher than his southpaw splits. If there was a time to take on the risk of rostering a bottom-third-of-the-order catcher, that time is today.
Also Consider: Victor Martinez - C, at CLE ($2,600)
Miguel Cabrera - 1B, at CLE ($3,600)
Miggy hasn't had the hottest start to his 2017 campaign to say they least, but he finally broke out yesterday, crushing a home run and piling up 24.9 FanDuel points in the process. The nice thing about that is that his salary has crawled downward and we get him at a more ideal price - a figure that he can and should surpass value at. Over the past year, Cabrera owns very impressive splits against right-handers, posting a .397 wOBA and a .255 ISO.
Also Consider: Eric Thames - 1B, at CIN ($2,500) - GPP option
Brian Dozier - 2B, vs CWS ($3,700)
There's very little not to love about Mr. Dozier. He's a power-hitting second baseman that can hit for average, too, and is slotted in the leadoff spot, which is quite literally the most opportune spot we can consider for DFS roster construction. On top of that, he is an opposite splits guy, meaning he has better splits over the last year when facing right-handed pitching (despite him being a right-handed hitter himself) and could go a little overlooked tonight on this big slate. Those splits I mentioned are quite impressive. Have a look for yourself: .368 wOBA, .263 ISO and a .536 slugging percentage. That'll play.
Also Consider: Jonathan Villar - 2B, at CIN ($3,500) - GPP option
Mike Moustakas - 3B, vs LAA ($3,000)
The steadily-improving Moustakas has picked up where he left off in the power department of his 2016 campaign and entered 2017 with a bang. The lefty slugger has always had a knack for hitting right-handed pitching hard, and he'll have the opportunity to do so tonight at a very cheap price. Moose is currently projected to hit as high as second in the order tonight, and his .395 wOBA and .329 ISO splits create both an incredibly high floor and high ceiling.
Also Consider: Nick Castellanos - 3B, at CLE ($3,000) - GPP only
Aledmys Diaz - SS, at NYY ($3,600)
Diaz has somewhat quietly produced big time split numbers against right-handed pitching in the last year, posting a .385 wOBA and .245 ISO. Seeing as he has positive reverse splits, he could go under the radar this evening, and he does get a slight park upgrade moving from St. Louis to the Bronx in this matchup. Additionally, his direct competition - Masahiro Tanaka - has been struggling in a number of areas. Most notably, he's been dealing with elbow issues, a decrease in velocity, and right-handed hitters have posted over a .400 wOBA in his last few starts.
Also Consider: Francisco Lindor - SS, vs DET ($4,100)
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Michael Conforto - OF, at MIA ($2,800)
I find it quite amusing that Conforto is listed at such a discount price. Yes. we're very early into a long season, but he's been mashing the ball and hitting near the top of the order. There isn't a lot more you can ask for from an outfielder priced under $3,000. But wait, there is more. Over the last season, Conforto owns splits against right-handed pitching that are quite beautiful, posting a .357 wOBA and .251 ISO.
Adam Duvall - OF, vs MIL ($3,600)
Duvall wasn't one of the outfielders that immediately looked enticing, but a dig into his peripheral stats revealed he could be a stellar option this evening, particularly in tournament formats. The slugger that burst onto the scene in 2016 has an opportune matchup tonight in one of the best parks for power hitters at Great American. Over the last year, Duvall has posted a .265 ISO split and maintained a hard-hit rate at or above 35%. His opposition, Tommy Milone, has allowed over a .360 wOBA and .500 slugging percentage split to right-handed hitters, which bodes well for Duvall and a few of his teammates.
Also Consider: Mike Trout - OF, at KC ($5,100) and Curtis Granderson - OF, at MIA ($2,900)
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