RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Open Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Open Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Old Course
7,305 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Fescue
Like any links-style venue, the weather will be the ultimate decider on how difficult of a test we should expect for the week, but the Old Course at St. Andrews has universally been regarded as one of the more straightforward Open tracks in the rotation in calm conditions.
Listed at 7,305 yards, St. Andrews is a Par 72 on the scorecard but plays nothing like a typical track under those settings. Fourteen par-fours, with half stretching between 350-400 yards, give us this unique skill set that amplifies short iron proximity from under 100 yards, but even the danger on the other holes might be reduced thanks to the firm and fast fairways that allow golfers with distance to carry all of the old hazards that might have presented issues for the field.
With all that being said, I do not believe this test plays quite as simple as most pundits since the R&A knows the only proper defense of the property will come from their ability to speed up and bake out some of these surfaces as much as they can if wind doesn't come into play, but it is still hard to envision a winning score that doesn't leak out past the 15-under or greater range. Three-putt avoidance will be necessary with massive greens, but there is still only so much you can do with the putting complex since it contains mainly Fescue grass. That is a surface that will always roll on the slower side of the equation, which means my model will look heavily into short iron proximity and then try to add in every other factor marginally to that mix. I will talk about that in a more in-depth fashion below, but it is a venue where some experience is important since golfers do have options off the tee on almost every hole.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Old Course | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted Tee To Green (13%) - You usually will see me go higher than 13% when looking at tee-to-green, but it took on a much smaller combined emphasis since it was already weighted so many times in my model from an individual standpoint. Weighted proximity, total driving and three-putt percentage were the main factors I used, and my model is littered with those categories repeatedly.
- Weighted Putting (15%) - I made an executive decision to do something that I typically don't with putting, which was to not only have it standalone but also remove every surface that wasn't deemed to be slow or neutral. I don't know how much importance we can derive from three-putt avoidance on quicker surfaces versus a test like St. Andrews, so I combined a 50/50 mixture of strokes gained putting on slower greens and three-putt percentage on those same green complexes and pulled a unique data point that others won't have when pulling numbers from all variations.
- Strokes Gained Total Wind (10%) - For European golf, 10-15 MPH projected forecasts aren't that noteworthy, but coastal gusts can always wreak havoc out of nowhere.
- Collection of Par-Fours (20%) - With 14 of the 18 holes being par-fours, I took a specific breakdown of where each hole landed and then added projected proximity totals for each player to get a mixture of the par-four locations and expected distance on their second shots. I did that for all 14 chances and then added them together to mimic the layout.
- Par-Three + Par-Five Scoring (7%) - The same concept I did with the par-fours at a lower scale since there were only two setups for each range.
- Total Driving + Short Irons (15%) - That took a 75/25 split of distance over accuracy to create a total driving total and then divided it again with some of the iron proximity numbers - this time at a 70/30 distribution that favored driving.
- Weighted Proximity (20%) - We can say proximity projections are more trouble than they are worth, but I don't believe that to be the case when you dissect and minimize the data to fit a specific setup. Fifty percent of my weight did come from proximity under 100 yards, with the final 50% being pulled from all other zones.
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
- Safest Play: Jordan Spieth ($10,000) - Wide-open fairways. The ability to create and shape shots. Remarkable history on Links-style courses. Jordan Spieth checks every box you want from a profile perspective to take on St. Andrews. Spieth is trending towards being the most popular player on the board, but he is someone I would pencil in for cash, and I honestly don't have any gripes if you want to use him for GPP contests, either. You will need to be aware of ownership beneath him since he will be one of the more popular starting points, but the former Open Champion has real potential to win this major again.
- Most Upside: Rory McIlroy ($11,100) - Can Rory McIlroy end his major championship drought? The ball-striking points to a golfer ready to get back into the winner's circle, which we see from totals of 8.26 shots per start with his driver and irons over the past five tournaments, and the wind play shouldn't hurt matters either since he ranks number one in this field in moderate-to-severe conditions.
- Favorite GPP Play: Scottie Scheffler ($11,000) - I wouldn't look too much into Scottie Scheffler's missed cut at the Scottish Open, as the American finished Thursday and Friday ranked 26th in the field when it came to ball-striking. Unfortunately, he plummeted those totals around the green and putting - two numbers where he ranked outside the top-115 in the field, but the rebate in ownership does make him someone worth considering in GPP contests because of his upside.
- Fade: Justin Thomas ($10,500) - I have my concerns with Justin Thomas' health. He withdrew at the Travelers Championship a few weeks ago because of a back injury, and then he put together an extremely atypical performance at the Scottish, where he ranked outside the top 100 in ball-striking. There is always a chance that the injury isn't as severe as I might believe, but I will take my chances in opposing him if he pushes 15%+.
- Most Likely Winner: Rory McIlroy ($11,100)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Xander Schauffele ($9,900) - Sometimes you have to accept things for what they are. Schauffele deserves to be in the $10,000 range, and I think there is a solid argument to be made that he could push as high as one of the four or five best golfers in this field.
- Most Upside: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400) - Look, if you want to include Cameron Smith ($9,500) over Patrick Cantlay as the best upside target, I am not going to give any massive pushback, but this is trending towards a situation where the American might be half the projected ownership, even though their upsides are dead even. Cantlay's lack of major championship success is being way too heavily baked into all his prices, and the scrambling ability he provides makes an Open-style layout perhaps his preferred major of the group.
- Favorite GPP Play: Dustin Johnson ($9,200) - The high-end results are phenomenal in my model for Dustin Johnson. The two-time major winner ranks first in weighted tee-to-green, fourth in par-four average, second in total driving and fourth in weighted proximity.
- Fade: Viktor Hovland ($9,000), Will Zalatoris ($9,600) - The Hovland fade will be on par with everyone else in the space. Zalatoris will fall victim to their being too much ownership and too many other players I would prefer using over him.
- Most Likely Winner: Dustin Johnson ($9,200)
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Tony Finau ($8,400), Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) - I'd argue both Fleetwood and Finau fit most of these narratives in the $8,000 section.
- Most Upside: Sungjae Im ($8,300) - I will take a chance on Sungjae Im if he continues to hover around five percent. I believe the upside is worth a shot, and the ball-striking turned around on Friday at the Scottish - gaining in both main categories.
- Favorite GPP Play: There is very little that I love in the $8,000s. We always see ownership start condensing in these spots since it is so easy to make a build from the players that are typically priced higher, but the only golfers that are showing as a value in price versus rank would be Sam Burns, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau and Sungjae Im (for upside only).
- Fade: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,700)
- Most Likely Winner: Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top-65 in overall and upside + negative totals against both their DraftKings price and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days, but Adam Scott, Webb Simpson, Tiger Woods and Paul Casey lead the list of golfers with positive ranks in all areas that also are inside the top-25 overall.
- Safest Play: Adam Scott ($7,700)
- Most Upside: Webb Simpson ($7,600)
- Favorite GPP Play: Paul Casey ($7,500),
- Fade: Billy Horschel ($7,500)
- Most Likely Winner: Tiger Woods ($7,500)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top-65 in one of the two iterations and also positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete breakdown of the field, but this condensed things down nicely as a first run. It was surprising to see Phil Mickelson grade as the best leverage option on the board at $6,600.
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