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Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the 2025 PGA Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 PGA Championship. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
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Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings - The PGA Championship
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The PGA Championship
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
- Units: +340.903 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2025
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
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You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Quail Hollow | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 291 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 58% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 56% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 48% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.69 | 0.54 |
Field
Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-70 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 20
Last Five Winners of The PGA Championship
| 2024 | Xander Schauffele | -21 |
| 2023 | Brooks Koepka | -9 |
| 2022 | Justin Thomas | -5 |
| 2021 | Phil Mickelson | -6 |
| 2020 | Collin Morikawa | -13 |
Last Five Winners At Quail Hollow
| 2024 | Rory McIlroy | -17 |
| 2023 | Wyndham Clark | -19 |
| 2022 | Max Homa | -8 |
| 2021 | Rory McIlroy | -10 |
| 2019 | Max Homa | -15 |
Expected Cut-Line at The Truist Championship
| 2024 | |
| 2023 | |
| 2022 | |
| 2021 | |
| 2019 |
I don't want to project against variations of Quail Hollow as a non-major
Quail Hollow
7,626 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Overseeded Bermuda
You can find my premium course breakdown in my premium DraftKings article this week
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Price |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 11 |
| Xander Schauffele | 25 |
| Min Woo Lee | 110 |
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Wednesday Thoughts
Favorite Favorites
Bryson DeChambeau ($11.5K)
My model thought the most likely winners were Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau, in that order. However, the one thing I noticed about betting (early in the week) and DraftKings pricing was that DeChambeau was the overlooked commodity between the three.
Yes, McIlroy and Scheffler still have about a 1.5 percent edge in win equity when comparing all options, but DeChambeau profiles as an extremely high-end option for DFS, making it easier to construct a roster because of his comparative price to Scheffler and McIlroy.
All three are in play for the obvious reasons.
Make Me Different!
Your clear leverage spots would be Collin Morikawa or Ludvig Aberg in GPPs. I lean in the direction of Morikawa because of his steadier production profile.
The Overlooked of LIV & PGA
Xander Schauffele ($10.7K), Jon Rahm ($10.2K)
If I could redo an outright card, I would have likely tried to find a way to fit Jon Rahm onto it.
Schauffele and Rahm share the same viewpoint of high-end potential but are overlooked enough to warrant consideration. You will notice that both could pair nicely next to DeChambeau.
FORE...
You will notice an omission of Justin Thomas. I understand the recent form and past success at this course when he won his first major in 2017, but I just prefer every other name that landed $10,000+. That was enough to remove from any consideration within my player pool.
$9K Problems And Joaquin Niemann Ain't One
You can dive into my model to get the answer for all of these $9,000 names since there are a ton of golfers that landed as a value, but I didn't get a better return of playability from ownership and stats than Joaquin Niemann.
The narrative of past failures at major championships won't explain his current form and skill set, so if the industry wants to look the other way, sign me up to be massively overweight. His ball flight is perfect for Quail Hollow.
2025 Is The Year Of The Career Grand Slam?
I wouldn't go that far since I didn't bet Jordan Spieth to win this title, but I haven't seen many PGA Championships that fit his game better than Quail Hollow will during this go-around.
Spieth has the adequate distance to spray the ball a little off the tee (even with thicker rough) and sees one of the more significant upticks in Expected Proximity because of his strength from 200+ yards.
The Snapping Tortoise & The Hair
I really like Tyrrell Hatton at Quail Hollow. Hatton cracked the top 10 of my overall model because of his strong profile at similar courses
Tommy Fleetwood, on the other hand, didn't grade quite as well statistically, although it might be a detrimental projection to overlook him. I've always said the Englishman's best chance for victory in the United States comes at these driving tests, which allow his short-game and long-iron proximity to show.
Can Cantlay Become A Major Championship Killer?
My only pushback for Patrick Cantlay would be his lack of success in any tournament on Sunday.
As everyone knows, I have never considered that a reason to avoid playing someone.
Count me in on Cantlay.
The Chef's Kiss
Min Woo Lee's recent form has been extremely poor since his victory in Houston, but he brings that carry distance off the tee + putting acumen at a higher rate than any other 100/1+ shot in the field.
That expectation was why I bet on him during his first PGA victory in Texas, and it could breed a recipe for success here if he can improve his recent putting and approach woes.
I would consider this a volatile selection with a high ceiling and rock-bottom floor.
Canadian Major Winner, Eh?
Corey Conners graded as one of the safest targets that I had on the board at his $8,300 going rate.
While the lack of upside argument always is there, I don't think it is relevant in this conversation at a lower $8,000 price tag.
Ain't No Rest For The Wicked
No high-end golfer on tour plays as much golf as Sungjae Im, so I typically want to find myself overweight for DFS when he has pockets of success.
Four top-35 finishes in a row will go a long way at his $8,200 salary.
Here, Kitty Kitty
I don't know how many times I can allow Kurt Kitayama to claw me by losing 10 strokes putting when I back him, but there is genuine top 20 equity on him here in the lower $6,000 range.
I will be betting on the ball striking in all markets.
JaegerBomb
Fair price on Stephan Jaeger at $6,500 and hidden upside because of his added distance over the past year.
Denny's Refills For Free
Denny McCarthy's $6,700 price tag was as enticing as anything in this lower section since he and Max Greyserman were the only two bargain-bin golfers to rank near the top of the board for putting.
Look for him to fill it up with the flat stick!
Ingen Ko På Isen
If you are looking for a random dart throw in the $5,000 range, you could do much worse than Thorbjorn Olesen.
The profile does lack any truly elite returns, but I was surprised to see him as a projected top-30 win equity candidate in my model.
Also, for what it is worth, the headline is a famous Danish motto that says, "No Cow On The Ice." Or in a more English way, "no matter what the issue is, it is not a major one, and you shouldn't worry about it."
Who needs to have major championship stress?!
Win More With RotoBaller
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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