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Welcome to Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season. Congratulations, we finally made it through the long and tedious offseason. There are tons of contests on both major DFS sites to open the season. Below are my DraftKings DFS Lineup Picks for Week 1.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, 2017 performances, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great value plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 1.
Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups!
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DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 1 Picks
Andy Dalton - CIN @ IND (DK $5,800)
Until they prove me otherwise the Colts defense is a unit I am going to go against a lot early in 2018. Their pass rush is weak, they are relying on Jabaal Sheard and their 2018 second round pick out of Rutgers to make something happen. In addition neither of their corners are household names and shouldn’t be able to do much to prevent Dalton picking them apart if he has time in the pocket. Last season they gave up the eighth most points to quarterbacks on DraftKings, surrendering 23 touchdowns and over 4,000 yards. Dalton did not have a great season last year and his offensive line had its problems, although the Bengals have taken steps to address that this season. However, against this Colts defense he should get enough tme in the pocket to find A.J. Green and even take some deep shots for John Ross.
Philip Rivers - SD vs KC (DK $6,400)
The Chiefs also struggled against quarterbacks last year, surrendering 18.4 points per game, the 10th worst. They traded away their best corner in Marcus Peters and replaced him with Kendall Fuller. Fuller had a decent season last year but he also had a poor rookie season, so it will be interesting to see which Fuller shows up against Keenan Allen this week. The other defensive backs, outside of Eric Berry, are nothing to get excited about and Rivers should be able to have his way with this Chiefs defense. Finally, the over/under for this game is fairly high at 48, and the Chargers are going to need to keep putting up points if they are to stick with this potentially explosive Chiefs offense.
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 1 Picks
James Conner - PIT @ CLE (DK $4,500)
Quite simply Le'Veon Bell does not look he is going to be available for this game. Last time Bell missed significant time, due to a knee injury, his replacement, DeAngelo Williams, finished fourth in fantasy points at the RB position that season. Conner is not DeAngelo Williams but he is a young running back in a Steelers system that is set up for running backs to succeed. With the weapons the Steelers have outside, the Browns will not be able to load the box and Conner should be able to gain decent yards regularly in this game. $4,500 for a number one running back is a bargain too good to pass up, especially in cash games. In GPP then you may want to fade Conner as he will likely be an extremely popular option this week.
Alex Collins - BAL vs BUF (DK $5,600)
The Buffalo Bills were on average a point and a half a game worse against running backs than any other team. When the Ravens committed to Collins last year and gave him over 15 carries he rewarded fantasy owners with an average of 17 points per game. Collins is going to enter this game as the number one. With Baltimore favorites by around seven points in most places, I expect to see him get a lot of carries in order to put the game away in the third and early fourth quarter
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 1 Picks
A.J. Green - CIN @ IND (DK $7,800)
Whether you play Green or not probably comes down to whether you feel comfortable stacking your QB and wide receiver. I spoke above about the Colts defense against the pass, well against wide receivers they ranked 11th worst, surrendering 33.8 points per game on DraftKings. I do not expect either of the Colts corners to be able to shut Green down, and he is going to be Dalton's first choice of target all game long.
Ted Ginn Jr. - NO vs TB (DK $4,300)
Ginn offers interesting upside this week. Last season the Buccaneeers were the worst team in terms of fantasy points given up to opposing wide receivers. With Brent Grimes likely to matchup on Mike Evans, that leave Ginn likely covered by Vernon Hargraves, which should be a matchup he can have success with. Last season, Ginn had three of his four touchdowns at home and averaged 11 points more a game when playing in New Orleans. The over/under for this game is 51, so we should see plenty of points and the Saints do not often take their foot off the gas when they are playing at home.
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 1 Picks
Jack Doyle - IND vs CIN (DK $4,100)
Doyle has generally be an incredibly reliable tight end when it comes to catching the ball, with a catch rate for his career around 75%. He now gets to play with Andrew Luck once again, which can only boost his value. One thing that goes heavily in his favor is that Luck does not really have any outside targets he can truly trust other than T.Y. Hilton. Luck is going to need a regular outlet option and I expect Doyle to be that guy. The only concern is that he may lose redzone targets to Eric Ebron but otherwise I expect a solid week for Doyle, facing the team who ranked ninth worst against tight ends in 2017.
DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 1 Picks
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills (DK $3,800)
If you are playing GPP this one might be a little bit too obvious but the Ravens defense is extremely hard to pass up. Last time Nathan Peterman started a road game he threw five interceptions in 14 attempts. Now he has to go into Baltimore, with limited receiving options and question marks over his running back. I expect the Ravens to have a field day against the Bills offense and could have multiple interceptions. That high ceiling combines with a high floor because this Bills offense is not going to cut loose and open up. They will likely look to play a ball control offense, limiting the damage they can do on the scoreboard.
