RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev on 03/08/25. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
While the last two cards weren't anything to remember fondly, the UFC is back with a much better card this time around. At the top of the bill for the UFC 313 main card on Saturday is the battle for the light heavyweight belt. Alex Pereira is set for his fourth title defense against Magomed Ankalaev. The co-main event features a lightweight rematch between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev. Originally, Dan Hooker was slated to face Gaethje this Saturday in the co-main event of UFC 313 but was forced to withdraw from the bout following a hand injury.
The UFC 313 main card also features a matchup between top strawweight contenders Amanda Lemos and Iasmin Lucindo, plus another pair of highly-anticipated lightweight bouts, with Jalin Turner taking on Ignacio Bahamondes. King Green and Mauricio Ruffy are set to open up the UFC 313 main card.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev on 3/8/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
Featured Promo! Save 50% on any PGA Premium Pass using discount code MASTERS, this week only! Win more with our DFS and Betting Packages, get expert tools and advice from proven winners including the Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, betting/props cheat sheet and more. GAIN FULL ACCESS HERE
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alex Pereira, $8.3K - vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Alex Pereira is scheduled to defend the light heavyweight title against what many are calling his biggest test to date in Magomed Ankalaev. Pereira will attempt to defend his title for the fourth time, while Ankalaev will look to extend his win streak and become the new light heavyweight champion.
Poatan has all the POWER 👊@AlexPereiraUFC is looking for another knockout at #UFC313 👀
[ LIVE SAT 10pmET on @ESPNPlus PPV ] pic.twitter.com/q2uvGlzDtY
— UFC (@ufc) March 7, 2025
Pereira has been one of the most active UFC champions ever, having fought six times in the last two years. He was last seen in action last October at UFC 307, where he put a beating on Khalil Rountree Jr. to earn himself a fourth-round TKO victory. Pereira won over 80% of his fights via knockouts, as he has 10 KO wins under his belt with only two fights going the distance. Since moving to light heavyweight, Pereira has looked almost flawless. On his light heavyweight run, not including his last fight, Pereira has defeated former champions like Jan Blachowicz, Jamahal Hill, and Jiri Prochazka twice.
The challenger, Ankalaev, signed with the UFC in 2018. Ankalaev lost his UFC debut to Paul Craig, who submitted Ankalaev in the last second of the fight. Since then, Ankalaev has gone 13 fights without a loss. Primarily known as a striker, Ankalaev has nine knockout wins to his name. Ankalaev also has legitimate wrestling skills and credentials and is arguably a better grappler than any opponent Pereira has faced. This will be Ankalaev's second attempt to become a champion. Ankalaev fought Blachowicz for the vacant title in December 2022, and the bout ended in a split draw.
Pereira enters this bout with an MMA record of 12-2 and is 9-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.46 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 63%. Pereira is absorbing 3.44 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 55%. Regarding his grappling, Pereira is averaging just 0.14 takedowns every 15 minutes. However, Pereira has a takedown accuracy of 100% and a takedown defense of 70%.
Ankalaev enters this bout with an MMA record of 20-1-1 with one NC and is 11-1-1 with one NC in the UFC. He averages 3.64 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. Ankalaev absorbs 2.37 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 58%. In regards to his grappling, Ankalaev is averaging 0.92 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 31% and a takedown defense of 86%.
Ankalaev has been singled out as the biggest threat to Pereira’s title reign due to his sambo credentials. He is often labeled as a wrestler despite preferring to stay on his feet. I expect Anakalaev to shoot on Pereira, and I just don't think he'll be able to do enough with those takedowns. I think what will cost Ankalaev this fight is that he is too patient, leading to drawn-out fights against opponents who are hesitant to exchange with him. Even though he has some knockout power, Ankalaev is not nearly as destructive as Pereira. My prediction is that Pereira will knock Ankalaev out in the third or fourth round.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Justin Gaethje, $7.8K - vs. Rafael Fiziev
Former interim lightweight champion Justin Gaethje is scheduled for a rematch against Rafael Fiziev in the co-main event of UFC 313 on Saturday. Originally, the co-main event of UFC 313 was supposed to feature Gaethje and Hooker, who was forced to pull out due to a broken hand.
Gaethje is coming off a devastating loss to former featherweight champion Max Holloway, which ended in a last-second walk-off knockout for Holloway when the two decided to exchange at the end of the fight. Before that bout, Gathje defeated former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier via second-round knockout to win the BMF title. Gaethje holds a 26-5 MMA record, with 20 wins by knockout, four by decision, and one by submission.
Fiziev, who has been on the sidelines since September 2023, enters this fight on short notice. He hasn’t fought since tearing his ACL against Mateusz Gamrot. Before that, Fiziev lost to Gaethje via majority decision in a back-and-forth fight. This fight earned him the Fight of the Night bonus award. Fiziev is without a win dating back to July 2022. The bookies have Fiziev as the favorite in this fight, even though he's stepping up on short notice and lost the first fight against Gaethje.
Gaethje enters this fight with an MMA record of 25-5 and 8-5 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.78 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. Gaethje is absorbing 7.46 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. Regarding his grappling, Gathje is averaging only 0.11 takedowns every 15 minutes. However, Gaethje has a strong takedown defense of 75%.
Fiziev enters this fight with an MMA record of 12-3 and 6-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.90 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Fiziev is absorbing 4.97 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 49%. In regards to his grappling, Fiziev is averaging 0.29 takedowns every 15 minutes. Fiziev has a takedown accuracy of 40% and a takedown defense of 89%.
From their first fight, we've seen that Gaethje has the power advantage, while Fiziev has the speed advantage. The first fight was extremely close; the difference in the bout was that Gaethje outworked Fiziev late. Regardless of who wins the rematch between Fiziev and Gaethje, it's likely that we are in for another war. That being said, this fight should play out relatively similarly to the first. I'll give Gaethje an advantage just because he was more active, and Fiziev is coming off an ACL injury. My prediction is that Gaethje will win this fight via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jalin Turner, $8K - vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Jalin Turner is scheduled to face off against Ignacio Bahamondes on the main card of UFC 313 os Saturday. Turner will look to get back in the win column, while Bahamondes will look to extend his win streak to three.
Turner put together a five-fight winning streak, finishing all five opponents before his career fell apart as he lost three of his next four fights. In his last bout, Turner suffered a second-round TKO loss to Renato Moicano. That happened after Turner thought he scored a walk-off knockout. After consecutive split decision losses against Gamrot and Hooker, Turner bounced back by knocking out King Green.
Bahamondes went 2-0 in 2024 by picking up a pair of first-round knockout wins, both of which earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. He stopped Christos Giagos in April and then Manuel Torres in September. Bahamondes has won five of six dating back to August 2021, with four of those wins coming via stoppage, with his only defeat being a unanimous decision loss to Ludovit Klein.
Turner enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-8 and 7-5 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.60 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Turner is absorbing 4.57 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 41%. His grappling is decent, averaging 0.79 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 55% and a takedown defense of 74%.
Bahamondes enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-5 and 5-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 7.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. Bahamondes absorbs 4.41 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 57%. He has not shown any grappling ability but has a takedown defense of 85%.
Bahamondes has never faced someone like Turner. The most significant advantage Bahamondes has had against his past opponents is his size and reach, but that won't be the case against Turner. Turner packs more power in his punches, while Bahamondes has better cardio. This will most likely be a striking battle. I don't see this fight going the distance. Turner is just, in my opinion, better than Bahamondes at this point in his career. My prediction is that Turner will finish this fight via second-round knockout.
