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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on September 17, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. I'm aware that NFL season is underway, but I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of MLB games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's main slate features a robust 10-game matinee mix on DraftKings and an 11-game set on FanDuel. The weather looks like it could get tricky, so it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 9/17/2023 and the slate locking at 1:35 PM ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Brandon Woodruff, MIL vs. WAS ($10,800 DK, $11,500 FD)
His price is steep, but Brandon Woodruff is the top pitching option on this slate. Through nine starts, he boasts a 2.77 xERA and 3.66 xFIP. That includes an outstanding .196 xBA, .259 xwOBA, 6.1% barrel rate, 6.2% walk rate, and a 29.7% strikeout rate. Woodruff has surrendered just three total runs over his last four starts and 28 innings pitched. He threw a complete game shutout against the Marlins last time out and has shed whatever rust he carried from his four-month absence.
The Nationals have maintained their position among the league's most mediocre offenses all season long. They score only 4.3 runs per game for the year. That includes an 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, alongside a .695 OPS and .303 wOBA. Washington is one of the more difficult lineups to strike out, but there's not a lot of offensive upside.
Nick Pivetta, BOS vs. TOR ($7,200 DK, $8,100 FD)
I'm not claiming that Nick Pivetta is the second-best pitching option on this slate, but he is the best value. Through 35 appearances this season, Pivetta carries a shaky 4.20 xERA and 3.71 xFIP. That includes a strong .224 xBA and .316 xwOBA. He's certainly capable of getting knocked around, as evidenced by a .421 xSLG and 11.9% barrel rate. That said, Pivetta boasts an elite 31% strikeout rate alongside a 32.5% chase rate and 29.2% whiff rate. If he's going right, Pivetta is more likely to rack up double-digit strikeouts than anybody else in his price range.
The Blue Jays are not a lineup I typically advocate for targeting against. Names like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer are certainly intimidating on paper. However, the Toronto bats have been relatively quiet in the second half. They're scoring only 4.4 runs per game since the All-Star break, including a 100 wRC+, .721 OPS, and .315 wOBA against right-handed pitchers.
Also consider: Framber Valdez, Sonny Gray, Charlie Morton
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Pete Alonso – 1B, NYM vs. Brandon Williamson ($5,300 DK, $4,200 FD)
Pete Alonso is always primed for a long ball. He carries a phenomenal .561 xSLG, 15.7% barrel rate, and .388 xwOBA. That amounts to a 133 wRC+ and 45 home runs this season, good for the second-most in the majors. Alonso is slugging .566 against left-handed pitchers, part of a .534 career mark.
Brandon Williamson's rookie campaign has been shaky. Across 20 starts, he owns a 4.78 xERA and 4.60 xFIP. Williamson has surrendered a .444 xSLG, .262 xBA, 42.1% hard-hit rate, 90.1 mph average exit velocity, and a .335 xwOBA. Right-handed hitters have been particularly successful against Williamson, slugging .460 with 16 home runs.
Gleyber Torres – 2B, NYY vs. Andre Jackson ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD)
It feels like it gets lost in the shadow of the Yankees' disappointing campaign, but Gleyber Torres is having a strong season. He's slashing .271/.343/.461 with 25 home runs and a 122 wRC+. That success includes a .478 xSLG, .278 xBA, 37.1% sweet-spot rate, and .361 xwOBA.
Andre Jackson presents an enticing matchup. Through 50 2/3 innings pitched, he sports a 5.75 xERA and 4.48 xFIP. He's surrendered a generous .501 xSLG, .280 xBA, 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 12% barrel rate, and 46% hard-hit rate. Right-handed hitters are slugging .490 against Jackson, compared to just a .378 mark from left-handed hitters.
Ceddanne Rafaela – OF/SS, BOS vs. Hyun Jin Ryu ($3,400 DK, $2,800 FD)
Ceddanne Rafaela's fantasy appeal has taken a boost recently with his promotion to Boston's leadoff spot against southpaws. Through 17 career games, he's slashing .333/.362/.566 with a pair of home runs. Rafaela is the third-ranked prospect in Boston's farm system and posted a .869 OPS with 20 home runs and 36 stolen bases across 108 games in the minors this year.
Hyun Jin Ryu has been surprisingly effective in 2023. He sports a 3.32 xERA and 3.87 xFIP; however, the sample size is just eight outings. Ryu has looked closer to cooked the last two seasons, posting a 5.21 xERA and 4.42 xERA in 2022 and 2021, respectively. While I'm not eager to stack against Ryu, I'm also not convinced that the 36-year-old is back. Right-handed hitters own a .415 slugging percentage against him this season, down from a .587 mark last year and .447 the season before that.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Yordan Alvarez – OF, HOU vs. Jordan Lyles ($6,200 DK, $4,100 FD)
I have a feeling Yordan Alvarez will be a popular play today, and that's completely justifiable. He's slashing .299/.411/.585 with 27 home runs and a 171 wRC+. That includes an unbelievable .611 xSLG, 17.4% barrel rate, 52.1% hard-hit rate, 93.3 mph average exit velocity, and a .296 xBA. Don't overthink this, Alvarez is worth the steep price of admission.
Jordan Lyles has surrendered 36 home runs in 2023, which is tied for the second-most in the majors. He's allowed a .484 xSLG, 10.1% barrel rate, .267 xBA, and .344 xwOBA. That amounts to a 5.08 xERA and 5.35 xFIP. Hitters of all-handedness are slugging north of .500 against Lyles this season.
Kyle Schwarber – OF, PHI vs. Dakota Hudson ($5,700 DK, $3,800 FD)
Despite an ugly .197 batting average, Schwarber remains one of the league's most deadly bats. He's launched 44 home runs, including a .483 xSLG, 16.1% barrel rate, 49.4% hard-hit rate, 92.3 mph average exit velocity, and .367 xwOBA. Schwarber strikes out at a gratuitous 29.5% rate. Fortunately, his opponent today does not miss bats.
Dakota Hudson is a groundball-inducing pitcher, which limits home runs, but he gets hit hard. Hudson has surrendered a .471 xSLG, 45.8% hard-hit rate, 90.7 mph average exit velocity, .283 xBA, and .363 xwOBA. That amounts to a 5.75 xERA and 5.10 xFIP. Crucially for Schwarber, Hudson generates just a 13% strikeout rate and an 18.7% whiff rate.
Mark Canha – OF, MIL vs. Patrick Corbin ($3,100 DK, $2,700 FD)
Perhaps it was the change of scenery after being traded, but Mark Canha has looked like a different hitter in the second half. In nearly 20 fewer games, he's matched his first-half home run total while producing a 118 wRC+. Canha has emerged as one of Milwaukee's key hitters against left-handed pitching, slugging .484 against southpaws this season.
Through 29 outings, Patrick Corbin owns an ugly 6.10 xERA and 4.65 xFIP. That includes a horrible .511 xSLG, .301 xBA, 43.9% hard-hit rate, 90.8 mph average exit velocity, and 9.2% barrel rate. Right-handed hitters are slugging .498 against Corbin this season, down from .526 a year ago and .562 the season before that.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Houston Astros vs. Jordan Lyles
Favorite Plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Dakota Hudson
Favorite Plays: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott
Also Consider: New York Yankees, New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers
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