RADIO
Mike's Week 4 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, September 20, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis & ATS picks from RotoBaller.
I'm off to a solid start so far, going 72-68 in the first three weeks of the season. I've also amassed 20 betting points. Let's try to build on that in Week 4! We've got some good matchups once again.
We have 59 total games today, which is a little lighter of a Saturday than the first few weeks. Some of that is due to fewer FBS teams playing FCS teams. You know I won't pick those. I hate huge lines anyway.
If you want me to advise on one of those FBS vs. FCS tilts, you can reach out on X or in the RotoBaller Discord, and I will answer. Let's get to the picks we really care about. There are 47 FBS vs. FBS tilts today!
CFB Betting Picks for Week 4 - (9/20/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
(17) Texas Tech at (16) Utah (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Devon Dampier is a human highlight reel. How many guys pick the ball up and still make that throw. pic.twitter.com/eORzHxc9Bt
— Jackson Holliday’s Burner (@KremerNation) September 14, 2025
This is going to be one of the more entertaining games of the day. The trolling on X leading up to this game has been legendary. Let's hope the game lives up to it.
I trust the caliber of Utah's opponents a little more, and I trust the Utah defense a little more. I'm not going crazy on this one. One or two bad plays could easily flip this the other way.
Pick: Utah -3.5
Arkansas (-7.5) at Memphis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is slowly creeping upward since most of the bettors know what I do. Taylen Green is going to be a massive problem for Memphis.
QB Taylen Green became the first @RazorbackFB player in program history to record 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a game. Green is the only player nationally to accomplish the feat this season. pic.twitter.com/law1oWDTgU
— Razorback Communications (@RazorbackComms) September 14, 2025
Pick: Arkansas -7.5
Maryland at Wisconsin (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is climbing, which leads me to think that Billy Edwards Jr. is going to play. Wisconsin is playing this close to the vest, meaning that he will be a true game-time decision. That makes it hard to place a wager on this one.
I tend to think that Malik Washington is good enough to give the Wisconsin defense fits. The Badgers are among the best at stopping the run. Washington is going to have to throw to win. That said, I feel like this stays a one-score game either way.
Pick: Maryland +9.5
Syracuse at Clemson (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Big update here as Antonio Williams, Khalil Barnes and Tristan Leigh are listed as “probable” against Clemson.
Tigers have really missed them the last 2-3 weeks @ClemsonFB | @wachfox pic.twitter.com/MS8CHU79Hu
— Claire Foley (@clairefoleytv) September 19, 2025
The status of Antonio Williams is key because this line is rather high. I expect a nice game out of Steve Angeli, but the Syracuse defense is a liability. Clemson likely gets right here.
Pick: Clemson -16.5
SMU at TCU (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like that this line has jumped. It's a rivalry game. I much prefer the over of 64.5, but we only do spreads here. This line is already up to -7.5 in a few spots. I believe that's where it closes, and for me, that's too high. SMU has better than a puncher's chance at winning outright.
Pick: SMU +7.5
Bowling Green at Louisville (-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has dropped a couple of points already. Bowling Green looked good last week against Liberty. Louisville is like Liberty with talent. I guess this comes down to whether I believe that the Falcons are at the same level as James Madison. They aren't. I have to take the Cardinals, but I don't trust them.
Pick: Louisville -25.5
UNLV (-2.5) at Miami (OH)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The line is falling out of this line, and I have no idea why. I LOVE it under a field goal. Anthony Colandrea is a beast!
Pick: UNLV -2.5
North Texas (-1.5) at Army
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place. It opened with Army favored. I've still seen it even at Bally and a couple of others. It's up to -1.5 for the Mean Green at DraftKings and MGM. Whichever side of this you want, you can find it.
North Texas looked damn good last week against Washington State. Don't expect a high-scoring game here, but I do like North Texas outright anyway. Two points aren't a deterrent.
Pick: North Texas -1.5
UAB at (15) Tennessee (-38.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line sucks, but I have no reason to believe that Tennessee's second string can't keep scoring.
Pick: Tennessee -38.5
Oregon State at (6) Oregon (-34.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's a rivalry, but that usually doesn't matter in the Civil War. Oregon has covered this score in four of the last 10 meetings. Oregon State is bad this year. I think Oregon keeps rolling.
Pick: Oregon -34.5
Kent State at (7) Florida State (-44.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This isn't the Kent team of the last three years. They are WAY overmatched, but I feel like this line is just a bit too high. Florida State can dominate the game and prove a point without covering.
Pick: Kent State +44.5
(22) Auburn at (11) Oklahoma (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is on the rise, as it should be. I'm grabbing it while it's still under a touchdown. Oklahoma fans know all too well who Jackson Arnold really is.
Pick: Oklahoma -6.5
Tulane at (13) Mississippi (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
.@clowfb reports Ole Miss will start Trinidad Chambliss at QB vs. Tulane.
What's the latest on Austin Simmons?
Details on @RebelGroveOn3: https://t.co/VMCCt5J9R4 pic.twitter.com/tuMZgbZkfv
— Billy Embody (@BillyEmbody) September 19, 2025
This line has dropped a touch, which shouldn't surprise anyone. Jake Retzlaff is a slower version of Taylen Green, who just torched the Land Sharks last week. I liked the Tulane side of this earlier in the week, but Trinidad Chambliss being named as the starter changes everything. This offense was much better with him in there.
Pick: Mississippi -12.5
(21) Michigan (-2.5) at Nebraska
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nebraska -- and more importantly, Matt Rhule -- know that Sherrone Moore chose when to take his suspension. Rhule is going to use that as fuel to fire up this team. We get to find out if Nebraska is for real this year.
Pick: Nebraska +2.5
Purdue at (24) Notre Dame (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Purdue came back on USC to bust the spread. Can they do it two weeks in a row? The Boilermakers won't be able to run on the Irish either, so this will be up to Ryan Browne. I'll say Purdue busts this late as well.
Pick: Purdue +24.5
North Carolina vs. Central Florida (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is up three points already and will likely close even higher. FanDuel is the only place that still has it at 6.5. Everyone else has it at 7. This has moved too far. Why are so many people believing in UCF just because they demolished North Carolina A&T? I don't get it.
Pick: North Carolina +6.5
Ball State at Connecticut (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I liked this much better when it opened at 18.5. I understand why the line is rising, and it is completely warranted. There's no way I can take Ball State. I'll just lower the bet.
Pick: Connecticut -21.5
James Madison (-8.5) at Liberty
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is falling a bit, probably because Liberty is usually tough at home. Add that to the rotating quarterbacks that the Dukes keep forcing, and the degree of difficulty goes up more. That said, Bowling Green covered the Flames by this.
Pick: James Madison -8.5
Louisiana (-2.5) at Eastern Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Louisiana has looked really bad, but the Eagles might be in the bottom 5 of FBS right now.
Pick: Louisiana -2.5
Troy at Buffalo (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Troy Coach Gerad Parker confirms Goose Crowder had successful surgery on his shoulder and said the staff is confident that he will be able to return this season.
— Josh Boutwell (@joshbmessenger) September 15, 2025
This line opened at 1.5 and keeps rising because of the Goose Crowder news. He's going to be out for several games. Tucker Kilcrease was awful in relief last week. There's no reason to think it will be any different against a defense of the caliber of Buffalo.
Pick: Buffalo -6.5
Toledo (-14.5) at Western Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ugh...I hate that half. Toledo is the better team, but a lot of things can happen to drop it under 14. I have to lower the bet.
Pick: Toledo -14.5
North Carolina State at Duke (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Other than Darian Mensah, what does Duke have? The Pack has CJ Bailey to go with Hollywood Smothers. I'm not a huge fan of the NC State defense, but I don't know that Duke can win this.
Pick: North Carolina State +2.5
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like that half at all, but I like the NIU offense even less. Oh, and those damn cowbells.
Pick: Mississippi State -21.5
Temple at (18) Georgia Tech (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
John Mateer eviscerated Temple last week. Haynes King is much the same as Mateer.
Pick: Georgia Tech (-23.5)
West Virginia at Kansas (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm a little curious as to why this line is rising. Tye Edwards might be a budding star for the Mountaineers, and I'm not sure Kansas is done reeling from blowing the game against Missouri. This feels a little bit high.
Pick: West Virginia +13.5
Delaware at Florida International (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Can Kejon Owens abuse the Blue Hens as he did rival FAU? Maybe. Delaware has allowed 505 rushing yards and six touchdowns in three games. The problem is, I don't trust the rest of the team around him. I really don't like this line.
Pick: Florida International -4.5
Arkansas State (-4.5) at Kennesaw State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The game that Jalen Raynor had against Iowa State impressed me. I've enjoyed watching him for a couple of years, but the way he showed out against a good defense at home was next level. This feels low.
Pick: Arkansas State -4.5
South Carolina at (23) Missouri (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
LaNorris Sellers Reprotedly Trending Towards Playing Against Missouri on Saturday #gamecocks #gamecockssports #scgamecocks #southcarolina https://t.co/O8VrFW3Woj
— Gamecocks Fandom (@gamecocksfandom) September 19, 2025
This line catapulted up to 9.5 after LaNorris Sellers was thought to be out. With the news that dropped last night that he is trending towards playing, expect a massive fluctuation back the other way.
I'm picking it where it's at now. With the news that Sellers is in, I like the free points with South Carolina, but would probably switch back to Missouri if it drops below 3 points.
Pick: South Carolina +9.5
Marshall (-2.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't trust any part of this line, but only one of these teams lost to an FCS school.
Pick: Marshall -2.5
Nevada at Western Kentucky (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm shocked this line is sinking. Nevada's defense has been decent, but Maverick McIvor is special. This is too low.
Pick: Western Kentucky -9.5
Boise State (-11.5) at Air Force
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm a little surprised that the line jumped this far. Is Boise State as explosive as Utah State? I have my doubts. This feels a little on the high side.
Pick: Air Force +11.5
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Chanticleers have been shut out twice already. This USA team can score. I don't like the half, but it's not that much of a deterrent.
Pick: South Alabama -14.5
Florida at (4) Miami (FL) (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game may not happen every year anymore, but it's still a rivalry. And you know how much I hate it when lines rise in a rivalry. That said, Miami demolished the South Florida team that toppled the Gators in The Swamp.
We saw how well the Gators played last year when it was thought that Billy Napier's job was on the line. It may be again. Will the Gators step up again? I don't think Napier's job is on the line because his buyout is still over $20 million, with $10 million due on firing.
That may not stop Florida from having an abysmal season. I have a feeling that Florida shows up.
Pick: Florida +9.5
(9) Illinois at (19) Indiana (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vegas thinks rankings are bogus. I wasn't expecting the line to be this high, but the line being on the rise suggests a lot of money is coming in on the Hoosiers. I'm torn. I love the way the Hoosiers play, but they haven't been tested at all. Illinois is going to test them. I feel like the line is up too far. I see this as a 3-4 point game.
Pick: Illinois +6.5
Georgia State at (20) Vanderbilt (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Look, I know Vandy wants revenge for the Panthers beating them last year, but four touchdowns? I guess Vandy did beat South Carolina by 24. I know Vanderbilt is capable of covering, but are they going to be amped up enough against a non-conference opponent? I have no interest in betting on this one.
Pick: Vanderbilt -27.5
Washington (-19.5) at Washington State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is not the same Cougars team that stunned the Huskies in Seattle last year. This is also not the same Washington team. Demond Williams Jr. is a difference-maker that Washington didn't have last year when they played the Cougs.
Now the hard part. No matter how far apart the talent seems, the game is usually close. Five of the last six games have been decided by under 20 points. I think I have to take Washington State at home. They're not going to win, but they usually show up for the Apple Cup.
Pick: Washington State +19.5
Stanford at Virginia (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. Stanford has improved a lot in the last two weeks. I wouldn't be shocked if the Tree won this outright anyway.
Pick: Stanford +15.5
Arizona State at Baylor (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is another one where I like the over 59.5 more than the spread. This is going to be a high-scoring game. A dual-threat quarterback ripped apart Baylor's defense in Week 1.
A former Baylor quarterback shredded the ASU secondary a week later. The bad news for the Sun Devils is that Sawyer Robertson is better than Blake Shapen and has better receivers. I don't see Baylor losing this at home.
Pick: Baylor -2.5
BYU (-6.5) at East Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Call me crazy, but I think BYU might lose this game. The Cougars haven't been tested. ECU has. This is the first road start for freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier. BYU might still win, but I think this stays close.
Pick: East Carolina +6.5
Southern Mississippi at Louisiana Tech (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nope. I like the Eagles straight up.
Pick: Southern Mississippi +3.5
Sam Houston at (8) Texas (-39.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Texas runs the ball 60 times, maybe they cover. However, the Longhorns are going to be more concerned with getting Arch Manning's confidence back than covering the spread.
Pick: Sam Houston +39.5
Louisiana-Monroe at UTEP (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is up five points. I'm not really sure why. I think UTEP is a little better, but we don't really know. Monroe shut out FCS St. Francis and got demolished by Alabama. The Miners hung with Utah State and Texas. I guess that's enough.
Pick: UTEP -6.5
UTSA (-4.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UTSA and Colorado State were both in my Group of 5 top 10. The problem is that Colorado State almost lost to Northern Colorado. UTSA is going to have trouble in Fort Collins, but I still believe in the Roadrunners.
Pick: UTSA -4.5
Wyoming at Colorado (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is too many. It's one thing for Utah to open up some whoop ass on Wyoming. Colorado has no whoop ass left.
Pick: Wyoming -13.5
California (-13.5) at San Diego State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is the real deal. He has already won a road start against a likely tougher team. Cal takes care of business.
Pick: California -13.5
Michigan State at (25) USC (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is an 11 p.m. Eastern kickoff for the Spartans. We saw what happened to East teams playing night games on the West Coast last week. That trend continues.
Pick: USC -18.5
Fresno State (-2.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
E.J. Warner is struggling for the Bulldogs, and Hawaii is tough at home. I have to side with Hawaii on the islands.
Pick: Hawaii +2.5
I had a subpar week last week, and I may have chickened out with only one max bet this week. In all fairness, this is a tough week. I'm heavy in the middle again with 20 two-point bets and 18 three-pointers. I have six four-pointers and five minimum bets. Good luck out there!
