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Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick Em for Week 4 of the 2023 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?
I had a lot of red X's on my entry this week, but most of them were below five points. My top three all hit, but Colorado made me sweat it. JPH420 led the group with 51 points this week. We had 10 more entries with 45 or more points, so the top of the group is still performing well.
50Centi is still leading the way with 137 points by four points over kingrah23. BKNoleGirl moves into the top three just one point back of kingrah23. We have a logjam in fourth place with JPH420, ertlt, Munch MaGash, and grove town all tied with 129 points. dbacchusdd is one point back in eighth place. Madcity Guru and dherman8 are tied for ninth with 126 points. 12 more entries all have at least 120 points, so the top 10 isn't all that safe.
Conference play begins in earnest for most teams this week, which usually makes Pick Em a lot more interesting. We have eight conference games involved in Pick Em this week along with another playoff game and Memphis and Mizzou from St. Louis. Let's make up some points!
College Football Pick Em Overview
This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on Twitter. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week. Good luck out there. There are less gimmes in conference season.
(1) Alabama over Mississippi
Alabama purposely held an open quarterback audition against South Florida in a game that they couldn't lose if they tried. Yeah, it was fun to see the Tide down 3-0 25 minutes in, but the game was still never in question. Ole Miss struggled with Georgia Tech despite what the final score says. It was a 10-point game early in the fourth.
I expect Jalen Milroe to start this game, but I haven't seen enough from Alabama that says they can control this game. Jaxson Dart isn't making mistakes this year and the Mississippi running game is impressive. The problem here is that you need a good defense to beat the Tide. I'm not sure Ole Miss has that. Give me the Tide, but only because it's in Tuscaloosa.
(2) Washington State over Oregon State
I know that Oregon State is a good team, but the Beavers are what Washington State was last year. Cameron Ward is dazzling in his second year in this system. I expect this to be more of a defensive game than many think. All you have to do is look at the money line (Wazzu +120) to show that this is closer to a toss-up than the Pick Em pickers think.
The public is 72% on the Beavers. It should be closer to 60/40 (by the way, Ole Miss/Alabama is 36/64). The Cougars are more tested and they're at home. I'm glad that D.J. Uiagalelei has gotten out of that toxic situation in Clemson, but I don't see him winning this on the road without significant help.
(3) BYU over Kansas
The public is heavy on the Jayhawks at 77% against a team that just walked into Fayetteville and beat the Hogs. Not only that, but Kansas struggled against the Pack in Reno. This is in Lawrence, but Fayetteville is a tougher place to play. I know that Arkansas was without Raheim Sanders, but that is still an impressive win for the Cougars who were down 14-0 before the first quarter was even half over.
(4) Notre Dame over Ohio State
Kyle McCord looked better last week, but quarterback play is so important in a game like this. The Buckeyes are on the road for the first time this year against a top-10 opponent who just so happens to have one of the best quarterbacks of the 2023 season so far.
Notre Dame has not beaten Ohio State since 1936 and in their five matchups since 1995, the #Buckeyes have won each game by 10+ points.
Can Sam Hartman and the #FightingIrish snap the streak this Saturday in South Bend?? pic.twitter.com/1swpCZPzaB
— Morning Blitz (@Morning_Blitz) September 20, 2023
I know all of this, yet I'm still siding with the Irish. Some of that gets in your head, but it's foolish to compare teams from the past to the current ones. There are some Notre Dame and many Ohio State players that are still around from the 21-10 Ohio State victory at the Shoe last year. The problem is that C.J. Stroud is starting in the NFL and Tyler Buchner just got benched at Alabama. The turnover at quarterback is enough for me to buck the trend.
(5) Kansas State over Central Florida
The Kansas State run defense is very good. That's UCF's main game. They love to run with several backs and with quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. I think the Wildcats can slow them down and this offense is plenty good enough to put up the points on the UCF defense. Welcome to the Big 12(14), UCF.
(6) Florida State over Clemson
I have a feeling Florida State's close call on Chestnut Hill might scare some people off. I hope it does. Thomas Castellanos created problems against the FSU defense with his legs. Cade Klubnik won't be able to duplicate that. As long as FSU shapes up their third down efficiency, this is a game they can not only win, but a game they can dominate.
How weird has college football been this year?
We're entering a weekend where:
Oregon State-Washington State is matchup of two Top 25 teams
And Florida State-Clemson is not.
WHAT. A. TIME. TO. BE. ALIVE.
— Aaron Torres (@Aaron_Torres) September 19, 2023
(7) Utah over UCLA
Cameron Rising is expected to play in this game. The official announcement won't be made until Thursday, but Rising has been warming up before the last two games and has practiced all week. UCLA is a young and exciting team, but the veteran front seven of the Utes and the veteran playmakers on offense should steal the show here. If Rising doesn't play for some reason, I'm moving this one way down. I still like the Utes, but they are a different team with Rising.
(8) Texas A&M over Auburn
The Auburn defense is legit, but the lack of consistent quarterback play is a problem. The Tigers have playmakers at receiver and running back. If they get average play at quarterback, they would be a strong team. They haven't so far. Until they do, I have to take A&M.
(9) Missouri over Memphis
The win over K-State vaulted this up the list for me because I still believe the Wildcats to be a good team. The Missouri defense is going to cause a lot of problems for this Memphis offense. The Memphis defense won't be able to stop Luther Burden III and the rest of the Mizzou offense. Burden is back home in St. Louis, so expect him to put on a big-time show.
Can I interest you in a two minute highlight reel of Luther Burden III being one of the most dominant receivers in the country through the first three weeks of the season? Is that something you would enjoy? #Mizzou pic.twitter.com/ycDgzuOF2r
— Brandon Kiley (@BKSportsTalk) September 19, 2023
(10) North Carolina over Pittsburgh
I view this as the only easy game on the Pick Em slate. Pitt hasn't played well this year and the Tarheels looked locked in on both sides of the ball. We saw the Minnesota defense get to Drake Maye a little bit last week, but that Pitt offense won't crack the Tarheels defense.
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