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Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick Em for Week 1 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?
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College Football Pick-Em Overview
This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you want to play the spread version as well, you can join that group here.
There are no extra prizes for that group unless we get enough participants. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on Twitter. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there. The first weeks are usually a bit easier, but there are some fun games in the real opening week!
(1) Miami (OH) over Northwestern
Let's start with an interesting one. The Redhawks have arguably a better quarterback in Brett Gabbert and Arizona State transfer Andre Johnson gives them more of a threat at receiver than the Wildcats have. This game will be built on defense from both sides, which will keep it close. Strange things happen in close games.
On top of that, Northwestern is playing in a stadium with about 7,500 seats. There's not much of a home-field advantage here. Last year was the first time the MAC hadn't wrecked a Big Ten (18) team in 10 years. I'm trying to steal a point with 92% of the public on the Wildcats and the Redhawks having at least a puncher's chance.
(2) North Texas over South Alabama
The Mean Green lost Chandler Rogers, Ayo Adeyi, Ja'Mori Maclin, and Roderic Burns. All they got in return is Chandler Morris, better known as the guy who lost his job to Max Duggan early in 2022 and watched TCU make it to the CFP Championship Game without him.
Last year, he was upset by Colorado in the debut of Deion Sanders and became the first player to enter the transfer portal...one week into the season.
The bad news is South Alabama lost more. Carter Bradley and Desmond Trotter's graduation leaves Gio Lopez as the only guy on the team who has thrown a pass. La'Damian Webb is gone. Caullin Lacy and his 1,316 receiving yards are gone. The public is very heavy on the Jags, but I'm not so sure. North Texas has a shot at winning this.
(3) West Virginia over Penn State
This is where I'm going to lose some of you, but hear me out before you bail. On the surface, Garrett Greene and Drew Allar aren't that different. Both quarterbacks are good at taking care of the ball but aren't super accurate. Allar is still young, but his poor play at the end of 2023 is concerning. We know what Greene is. He has been around long enough.
In his first season as a full-time starter, Garrett Greene proved to be a dynamic impact player for the Mountaineer offense, leading @WVUFootball to a 9-win season for the first time since 2016.
?Greene emerged as one of the best dual threat QBs in the country, and his… pic.twitter.com/tZtsqAUGTs
— Eric Galko (@EricGalko) August 12, 2024
The difference is the players around them. Greene is much more of a threat to run. Combine that with Jahiem White (who would have been the darling of Big 12 backs if it weren't for Ollie Gordon II at Oklahoma State and Abu Sama III bowling through Kitties in a blizzard) and wrecking ball CJ Donaldson Jr., and it's clear the Mountaineers have the better running game.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith bolted State College, but Julian Fleming could be the best receiver Penn State has had since Jahan Dotson. Oklahoma State transfer Jaden Bray provides a boost to a West Virginia team that only had one receiver over 500 yards last year (Devin Carter with 501).
These teams are more even than Penn State fans want to admit, and the game is in Morgantown. This line is down two points because the Mountaineers are getting more love than Vegas thought they would. I'm good going after a few extra points here from 95% of the field.
(4) Arizona State over Wyoming
I really considered Wyoming here because I like how Harrison Waylee runs, but Cam Skattebo proved how much of a problem he was for Sparky's opponents last year. If Wyoming gets down early, they're in trouble. This is not an offense built for coming from behind. If Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt is anywhere close to what Jaden Rashada gave the Sun Devils last year, this is an easy pick.
(5) Texas A&M over Notre Dame
Firing Jimbo Fisher is going to spark the Aggies, and I'm here for it. I have questions about Conner Weigman after his injury, but we can say the same thing about Riley Leonard on the other side.
The Aggies have dangerous receivers, and Le'Veon Moss is far better than any of the Irish backs. And hey...if the Aggies get bored, they have the son of Hall-of-Fame RB Emmitt Smith wasting away on the bench...
(6) Boise State over Georgia Southern
We get our first look at high-profile USC transfer Malachi Nelson here...or not. Rumor is that he lost the starting job to Maddux Madsen. I would be shocked if Nelson didn't play some in this game, especially if Madsen struggles.
Maddux Madsen’s 2023 season ended with a back injury that required surgery
Today he was announced as Boise State’s QB1 and beat out the former No. 1 overall recruit Malachi Nelson for the job
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) August 18, 2024
Georgia Southern lost Davis Brin (who threw for 3,781 yards last season) and Khaleb Hood, who caught 101 passes. That's a gaping hole. All Boise does is bring back Ashton Jeanty, who might be the best back outside of a power conference.
(7) Oklahoma State over South Dakota State
Look, I know how good of a team South Dakota State is. A friend of mine coached/recruited there for a few years (he's now in Idaho). The issue here is the Jacks have absolutely no answer for Ollie Gordon II. If a running back could still win the Heisman Trophy, he would. Gordon is in for a huge year and it starts here.
BREAKING: Mike Gundy announces Ollie Gordon II will be sidelined for approximately half of the 2024 season.
"See, Ollie won't be playing any defense this year. He'll be on the bench, resting for our offensive drives. So do the math - we're keeping him out for half the season.… pic.twitter.com/qIz3LQR1Of
— Zachary (@osuzack) July 3, 2024
(8) Miami over Florida
Cam Ward might be the missing link for the Hurricanes. These teams usually aren't this mismatched. Florida lost Travis Etienne and plays in a rough conference and they have this as an out-of-conference game? 10 years ago Florida could have handled this. Now they'll be lucky to win five games.
Florida Football schedule LEAKED ?
How many games will they win in 2024?
(Via @Jshmurds_a) pic.twitter.com/7ThgpmXUbi— Mr. JShmurda (@Jshmurds_a) August 21, 2024
This must be the college football Gods collecting on payment for Tim Tebow going to Florida. This schedule is ridiculous!
(9) Georgia over Clemson
Don't let ESPN gaslight you into believing this will be a close game and Clemson could win it. The Tigers didn't improve from last year. Georgia added Trevor Etienne from Florida, who might have been the best back in the portal. They added Colbie Young from Miami because...you know...they weren't fast enough.
The Bulldogs also hijacked Stanford's best player (TE Ben Yurosek, who likely won't even start) to add to Carson Beck and Dominic Lovett. The rich get richer indeed...
(10) Virginia Tech over Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt's competition for the worst Power Conference team is dwindling. Kansas and Rutgers are on the way up. That leaves Stanford. Let's just have Stanford play Vandy, and they can take the rest of the year off. They're going to get hurt playing a team like Virginia Tech. Happy Kyron Drones Day!
FBS off season program of the day
VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES
- Coming off great season. Returning lots of key players
- Kyron Drones is a Heisman level QB if VT plays very well
- 3 HUGE defensive transfers
- VERY winnable scheduleIf VT plays to their goals they can make the CFP pic.twitter.com/zpmeaoxYLO
— College Football Daily (@CFBalldaily) April 23, 2024
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