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Antonio's MMA DFS analysis and picks for the UFC title fight between Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez, breaking down the DFS numbers of both MMA fighters.
It's almost here, folks. We're just days away from making Fight Island a reality. I know you are disappointed that we're not going to watch athletes fight inside an octagon placed in the middle of a sandy beach, but what we're about to witness will make it to history books. The UFC, making up for the time lost due to the COVID-19 pandemic, will be running four cards in a span of two weeks while putting four titles up for grabs. That, simply put, is going to be insane.
Yas Island will be the place, and starting on July 11, we'll be kicking things off with UFC 251, and potentially three titles will be on the line (welterweight, featherweight, and bantamweight).
In this series of articles, I'll break down the title bouts about to happen over the next weeks on Fight Island. I will present the contestants, look at their past stats, and explore some fantasy numbers to get you ready for fight time. Don't forget to check out all of our MMA Content here at RotoBaller, and give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana!
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After Henry Cejudo went up a division to fight for the bantamweight title and left the flyweight division without a reigning champ, both Figueiredo and Benavidez fought for that right this past February. Figueiredo missed weight by 2.5 pounds, so even winning that fight, he was not eligible for the belt. It's time to declare a true winner.
None of these two are young, that's for one, but Benavidez seems to be entering the last stages of a long career that goes back to 2006. Time is running against Benavized, who needs a win versus Figueiredo now if he doesn't want to run out of opportunities. The younger of the two already beat Benavidez and will try to do it once more, looking a bit bigger inside the octagon the last time they met.
While these two are already past their 32nd birthdays, experience (under the UFC brand) is definitely on Joseph Benavidez's side. Benavidez debuted back in 2011 with a win and held a good 13-4 record since then. Benavidez's problem is that he's just 2-2 in his last four bouts and 0-3 in title fights (two losses against Demetrious Johnson, one versus Figueiredo). Benavidez's age is also showing, as he's been able to finish just one fight early since April 2014, going the distance in every other of his wins.
Figueiredo, who debuted three years ago in the UFC, is 7-1, and his only loss came against Jussier Formiga in March 2019 (Benavidez KO'd Formiga three months after that fight). Other than that blemish, Figueiredo has been great, and had he not been 2.5 lbs overweight in his last bout, he'd be the reigning flyweight champion. His current three-fight winning streak is no joke, and he will be looking to extend it to four while getting the gold in a short time.
There is not much to say about the difference between Figueiredo's and Benavidez's approach to the striking side of fighting. The former tries to stay calm and collected while boasting high success rates (53.6%), and the latter often throws more than double Figueiredo's SS but lands way lower of them (41.5%). It can't be said that Figueiredo's strategy is a bad one, though, as even landing just 2.7 SS per minute, he's been able to finish four of his eight fights via KO inside the first two rounds.
When it comes to significant strike defense, things are incredibly leveled between these two men. Both Figueiredo and Benavidez see an average of around seven SS per minute going their ways, and both of them have been able to dodge more than 50% of their opponents' attempts. Benavized has the slight edge here, allowing 45.7% of his rivals SS to land on him compared to Figueiredo 47.2%. That being said, the difference is so minimal that it can be neglected in the greater picture.
The grappling and takedown game is what separates these two flyweights. While Figueiredo is a low-volume but constant takedown attempter (he's had at least two attempts in six of his eight fights), Benavidez goes for the TD at a greater volume, but not in every match he's part of. Benavidez's last four fights varied a lot in terms of TDs, as he logged two, none, 12, and 14 attempts in chronological order.
As one could reasonably expect, Figueiredo's patient and low-volume approach is much better when it comes to his success rate (51%) when compared to Benavidez's (24.2%). Good for the latter, though, even attempting almost twice the number of takedowns per minute. With half the efficiency of Figueiredo, he still lands more per minute (0.15) than the Brazilian (0.12).
On defense, Figueiredo is more often a takedown target than Benavidez is. Yet, he's also much better at preventing opponents from taking him to the ground, stopping them more than 80% of the time. Benavidez, though less abused, has been taken to the mat five times (on 12 attempts) in his last three fights. Figueiredo has limited his opponents to just three successful takedowns (15 attempts) in his last three bouts.
Getting to what matters most here, there is no doubt who reigns in the realm of fantasy upside. Figueiredo's excellent record since 2017 plays in his favor and has him at almost 85 fantasy points per fight (DraftKings system) while Benavidez is stuck at 68. On a per-minute basis, Figueiredo's edge is even greater, racking up almost twice the points Benavidez generates at the same time.
One thing to consider here is the high amount of bonus points Figueiredo has gotten in his eight fights, averaging 53.8 per bout compared to Benavidez's 25. If taken away, then Benavidez would average more "normal" fantasy points than Figueiredo per minute. With five early stoppages in eight fights, Figueiredo is clearly a candidate for another one in the next fight, same as Benavidez is absolutely not (only one KO win among his last six victories).
This is a win-or-go-home fight for Benavidez. The veteran, soon-to-be four-time-contender, is in a critical position and must score himself a win if he doesn't want to vanish once and for all. Sure, he's the No. 2 flyweight, and Figueiredo is the only man above him, but a loss here to that very man would put Benavidez in a tough position while already aged 36.
Figueiredo has been sublime in every fight he's been part of since his debut, and his lone fight came via decision more than a year ago. It's very hard to see him drop this one to Benavidez, even more knowing what happened just over four months ago by the end of February when he finished his foe in under seven minutes. I'm betting on another early stoppage here, probably another KO too. Even with that, forget about high fantasy tallies. Figueiredo is overly dependant on bonus points, and other than that, he doesn't carry tons of fantasy upside (high floor, low ceiling) with him.
